When the dust finally settled on the most recent cycle, the presidential election results California produced weren't exactly a shocker to anyone who has lived here for more than five minutes. Kamala Harris carried the state with 58.5% of the vote. Donald Trump pulled in 38.3%. If you’re looking at that and thinking, "Yeah, sounds like California," you're only seeing half the picture.
The story isn't that a Democrat won. That’s been the script since 1992. The real story—the one that has political analysts scratching their heads and looking at 2026 with a bit of anxiety—is the massive shift in the margins. Harris won, but she didn’t win like Biden did. She didn’t even win like Hillary did.
The Shrinking Margin: Why 20 points feels like a loss
Look, a 20-point win in any other state would be a landslide. But in the context of the Golden State, it was actually the worst performance for a Democrat since 2004. For the first time in two decades, the Democratic candidate failed to crack the 60% mark.
In 2020, Joe Biden blew the doors off with a 29-point lead. Harris saw that lead shrink by nearly 10 percentage points. That isn't just a rounding error; it’s a tectonic shift in the state's political foundations.
What's weirder is where it happened. We’re used to the "Inland Empire" or the "Central Valley" being red-leaning. But we saw a rightward shift in 45 out of 58 counties. Even places like San Francisco and Los Angeles saw Trump make gains. He didn't win them, obviously, but he chipped away at the "Blue Wall" in a way we haven't seen in a generation.
📖 Related: Fire in Idyllwild California: What Most People Get Wrong
The Turnout Trap: Where did the voters go?
Honestly, the biggest winner in the 2024 California election was "Staying Home."
Total turnout plummeted. We had roughly 16.1 million people vote. That sounds like a lot until you realize it’s about 1.7 million fewer than in 2020. This happened despite the fact that we have more registered voters than ever before.
The drop was particularly brutal among younger voters. The 18-24 demographic saw a turnout decline of 7.7 percentage points according to data from the USC Center for Inclusive Democracy. When the youth don't show up, the Democratic margin usually takes the hit. It's a simple math problem that ended with a much more "purple" looking map than people expected.
A Quick Breakdown of the Certified Numbers:
- Kamala Harris (Dem): 9,276,179 votes (58.5%)
- Donald Trump (GOP): 6,081,697 votes (38.3%)
- Total Ballots Cast: 16,140,044
- Voter Turnout Rate: 71.43% (Down from 80.7% in 2020)
The "Prop 36" Effect
You can't talk about the presidential results without talking about Proposition 36. This ballot measure, which increased penalties for certain theft and drug crimes, passed with a staggering 68.4% of the vote.
👉 See also: Who Is More Likely to Win the Election 2024: What Most People Get Wrong
Think about that. Prop 36 was far more popular than any presidential candidate.
This suggests a "tough on crime" sentiment that cut across party lines. Many voters who checked the box for Harris also checked the box to reverse parts of the state’s previous criminal justice reforms. It shows a California electorate that is increasingly frustrated with local issues like retail theft and the fentanyl crisis, even if they aren't ready to go full Republican at the top of the ticket.
Regional Shifts that Actually Matter
If you look at the Central Valley, the shift was even more pronounced. In counties like Imperial, Merced, and Sutter, the gains for the GOP were some of the highest in the state.
Southern California wasn't immune either. Orange County, once the heart of Reagan country before turning blue, saw the margin between Harris and Trump shrink to just 2.6 points.
✨ Don't miss: Air Pollution Index Delhi: What Most People Get Wrong
- Harris: 49.7%
- Trump: 47.1%
Compare that to 2020, when Biden won the county by 9 points. It basically returned to being a true "swing" county overnight.
What This Means for 2026 and Beyond
California just passed Proposition 50 in a special 2025 election, which basically allows for a more "partisan" redrawing of congressional districts. Why does that matter now? Because the presidential election results California handed us in 2024 are being used as the roadmap for this gerrymander.
Democrats are trying to "protect" their incumbents by packing more urban voters into swing districts. They know that if the 2024 trends continue—specifically the shift among Latino and Asian American voters—they could lose their supermajorities in Sacramento and several key seats in D.C.
Key Takeaways for the Future:
- Voter Engagement is Down: The "automatic registration" system has added millions to the rolls, but those people aren't necessarily voting.
- The Gender Gap is Real: Among young voters, the shift toward Trump was led largely by young men, while young women remained more reliably Democratic, though even their turnout dipped.
- Local Issues Over Party Loyalty: Californians are willing to vote "Red" on policy (like Prop 36) while staying "Blue" on personalities.
If you’re trying to navigate this landscape, don't just look at the 58% vs 38% split. Look at the missing millions who didn't vote. Look at the 45 counties that moved right.
Next Steps for the Informed Voter:
- Check your voter registration status now at the California Secretary of State website to ensure you're ready for the 2026 midterms.
- Research the impact of the newly passed Proposition 50 redistricting maps in your specific zip code; your congressional representative might be different by the next election.
- Follow local county-level election data rather than just statewide totals, as the most significant political shifts in California are currently happening at the municipal and regional levels.