The dust has finally settled on the most chaotic election cycle in modern history. Now that the 2024 election is officially in the books—with Donald Trump securing 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris’s 226—it’s tempting to look back at the debates as just another piece of the puzzle. But the truth is a bit more complicated. If you're looking for a simple answer to presidential debate 2024 who won, you have to look at two very different nights that fundamentally changed the trajectory of the White House.
One night ended a presidency. The other night arguably didn't move the needle enough to save a campaign.
The June Disaster: When Trump "Won" by Standing Still
Let’s talk about June 27, 2024. This was the night the world watched Joe Biden struggle. Honestly, it was hard to watch at times. Biden entered the CNN studio in Atlanta with a raspy voice—the White House later claimed he had a cold—and he stumbled over his words from the jump.
The moment that basically sealed his fate? He was trying to talk about the national debt and ended up saying, "We finally beat Medicare."
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Trump didn’t even have to be at his best that night. He mostly stayed out of the way while Biden floundered. According to a CNN flash poll immediately following that June debate, a staggering 67% of viewers felt Trump won, while only 33% backed Biden. It wasn't just about the numbers, though. It was the "vibe shift." Within weeks, the pressure from inside the Democratic party became a literal roar, and by July 21, Biden was out.
In terms of sheer political impact, Trump won that June debate so decisively that he literally knocked his opponent out of the race. That’s a "win" you don't see often in American history.
The September Pivot: Harris Takes the Stage
Fast forward to September 10. Kamala Harris is the nominee, and she walks onto the ABC stage in Philadelphia with a completely different strategy. She was there to bait him. And it worked.
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You remember the "pets" comment? Trump’s claim that immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, were "eating the dogs" became the viral moment of the night. Harris spent most of the 100 minutes smirking or looking incredulous, effectively portraying herself as the "new generation" leader.
The data was clear on this one:
- CNN Poll: 63% said Harris won, 37% said Trump won.
- YouGov Poll: 43% for Harris, 28% for Trump.
- Reuters/Ipsos: 53% for Harris, 24% for Trump.
By every traditional metric of "winning a debate"—style, composure, and getting your opponent off-message—Harris won the September debate. She looked presidential, she didn't gaffe, and she earned a massive endorsement from Taylor Swift immediately after the broadcast.
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The Paradox of the "Winner"
Here’s where it gets tricky. If Harris "won" the debate so clearly in September, why did Trump win the election in November?
It turns out that winning a televised argument isn't the same thing as winning a voter's heart (or their wallet). While Harris dominated the "style points," many undecided voters felt they still didn't have a clear picture of her economic plans. Republican strategist John Feehery pointed out at the time that while Harris got her stride, voters were still "wailing away" for a plan to fix the economy.
Trump's "win" in the second debate was with his base. He gave them "red meat," as historian Barbara Perry put it. He hammered her on foreign policy and the "Biden-Harris" record. Even though he lost the "points" on stage, his message about the economy and the border resonated more with the people who actually showed up to vote in the swing states.
Real Talk on the Results
- June 2024: Trump won. This led to a total reset of the Democratic ticket.
- September 2024: Harris won. This gave her a massive polling bump and solidified her as a "pro" on the stage, but it didn't solve the underlying "incumbent" baggage she carried.
Actionable Insights for the Future
If you're trying to understand how debates actually function in the modern era, don't just look at the flash polls.
- Watch the "After-Action" Content: Research shows that most people don't change their minds during the debate. They change them in the 72 hours following the debate when they see the memes, the fact-checks, and the news summaries.
- Focus on the Swing States: A "national" winner of a debate might be losing in the counties that matter. Harris won the Philadelphia debate, but Trump ended up winning Pennsylvania by roughly 2 points.
- Style vs. Substance: High-energy performances (like Harris's) win the night, but long-term narratives (like Trump's "America First" economy) often win the cycle.
The 2024 debates proved that you can win the battle on the stage and still lose the war at the ballot box. If you want to dive deeper into the specific policy shifts that happened between the two debates, your next best move is to look at the Pew Research Center's final demographic breakdown of the 2024 electorate to see exactly where the "debate bounce" fizzled out.