Ever feel like the news is just a constant drumbeat of "The President is failing" or "The President is soaring," depending on which channel you're watching? Honestly, looking at a single poll number is like trying to judge a 1,000-piece puzzle by looking at one blue corner piece. It doesn't tell the whole story.
Numbers lie. Or, at least, they omit context. People often ask: what is a good presidential approval rating? If you're looking for a simple "pass/fail" grade like 65% is an A and 40% is an F, you’re going to be disappointed. Modern politics has fundamentally broken the old grading curve.
The 50 Percent Myth
Back in the day, say around the 1950s or 60s, a "good" rating was basically anything north of 50%. It was the "Mendoza Line" of politics. If you were above 50%, you had the mandate of the people. If you dipped below, you were in trouble.
Take John F. Kennedy. He averaged a 70.1% approval rating during his time in office. That sounds like a dream to any modern consultant. Dwight Eisenhower wasn't far behind with a 65% average. In those days, voters were much more likely to "give the guy a chance," even if they didn't vote for him.
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But look at the recent data. It’s a different world. Joe Biden’s average hovered around 42%. Donald Trump’s first term average was about 41%. Even Barack Obama, who had massive "rockstar" appeal early on, finished with a career average of 47.9%.
If 50% is the goal, then basically every president for the last 20 years has "failed." But that's not how it works anymore.
Why 40 is the New 50
We live in the era of the "High Floor, Low Ceiling."
Basically, the country is so polarized that about 35% to 40% of the population will always support the president of their party, even if he trips over his own feet on the way to the podium. Conversely, about 40% will always hate the guy in the White House, even if he discovers the cure for the common cold and makes gas free for everyone.
This means a "good" rating in 2026 is often anything that stays consistently in the mid-to-high 40s.
- 45% to 48%: This is actually quite strong today. It suggests you've kept your base and are peeling off some independents.
- 50% or Higher: This is "superpower" territory in the 21st century. It usually only happens during a national crisis (like George W. Bush after 9/11) or a very brief honeymoon period.
- Below 35%: This is the danger zone. When you drop into the low 30s or 20s, it means your own party is starting to jump ship.
The Weird History of Highs and Lows
Historical context is kinda wild. Did you know Harry Truman holds the record for both one of the highest and one of the lowest ratings in history? He hit 87% right after taking over for FDR when WWII was ending. By 1952, with the Korean War dragging on and scandals hitting his administration, he bottomed out at 22%.
Think about that. One out of every five people liked him. That’s "last kid picked for dodgeball" territory.
George W. Bush had a similar ride. He hit the all-time high of 92% in the weeks after the September 11 attacks. It was a moment of unprecedented national unity. Fast forward to 2008, with the Great Recession in full swing and the Iraq War looking like a quagmire, and he was sitting at 19% in some polls.
What Actually Moves the Needle?
If you’re wondering why the numbers move at all when everyone is so dug in, it usually comes down to three things:
- The Price of Eggs and Gas: You’ve probably noticed that when the "Economic Confidence Index" drops, the President’s approval follows it down like a lead weight. In December 2025, Gallup noted that only 21% of Americans described the economy as "excellent" or "good." Unsurprisingly, approval ratings for the administration were underwater.
- The "Rally 'Round the Flag" Effect: War or national tragedy usually spikes the numbers. For a minute, the partisan bickering stops. It never lasts.
- The Base vs. The Middle: Presidents today spend most of their time trying not to annoy their base. If a Republican President supports a "bipartisan" bill, their approval might go up 2 points with independents but drop 10 points with their own party. It's a brutal math game.
The Midterm Curse
One reason a "good" rating matters so much is the midterm elections. Historically, if a President is under 50% heading into the midterms, their party gets absolutely crushed in the House.
Trump is facing this reality right now in 2026. Since 1932, the party in power has lost an average of 26 House seats. When you have a "threadbare" majority, as the GOP does now, a 40% approval rating is basically a flashing red light for an upcoming "shellacking."
How to Read Polls Like a Pro
Stop looking at one poll from one day. It’s useless. Instead, look at the RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight averages. These take a bunch of different polls—some that lean left, some that lean right—and mash them together to find the "truth" in the middle.
Also, check the "Disapproval" rating. Sometimes a President might have 42% approval, but only 48% disapproval (meaning 10% are undecided). That's much better than having 42% approval and 56% disapproval.
Wait, what about "Independents"?
That's the real secret. Most people who call themselves "Independent" actually lean heavily one way or the other. The "true" independents—the ones who actually change their minds—are only about 10% of the country. They are the ones who actually decide if a rating is 42% or 48%.
Summary of Recent Trends
To give you a better sense of where we stand today, look at how the last few guys have fared:
- Joe Biden (2021-2025): Started high (57%), but after the Afghanistan withdrawal and the onset of inflation, he settled into the low 40s and never really recovered.
- Donald Trump (First Term): Famously consistent. He rarely went above 45% but also rarely dropped below 37%. He had a very high "floor" but a very low "ceiling."
- Donald Trump (Second Term - 2025): Early 2025 saw him at 47% (a strong start by modern standards), but by December 2025, he had dipped back to 36% as economic concerns and foreign intervention worries mounted.
Actionable Takeaways for the Informed Voter
If you want to actually understand what’s going on without the media spin, do these three things:
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- Look for the Trend, Not the Number: Is the President's rating 2 points higher than it was last month? That matters more than whether the number is 41 or 43.
- Ignore the "Honeymoon": Every president gets a 3-to-6 month grace period where their numbers are artificially high. Don't buy the hype until at least the first summer of their term.
- Check the "Right Track/Wrong Track" Poll: Often, people will say they "approve" of the President personally but think the country is on the "Wrong Track." If the "Wrong Track" number is over 60%, the President's approval rating is likely a house of cards that will collapse at the next election.
Stop waiting for a President to hit 60% again. Unless there’s a major war or a literal miracle, those days are over. In the 2020s, "good" is simply surviving.
To keep a pulse on the current political climate, monitor the Gallup Economic Confidence Index alongside approval ratings. Historically, these two metrics are tethered; if economic sentiment doesn't improve by the 2026 midterms, the "good" rating threshold will likely continue to slide downward as the floor of partisan support is tested by kitchen-table realities.