It is early 2026, and the numbers are in. If you've been scrolling through social media or catching the evening news, you've likely seen a dozen different versions of the same headline. But honestly, what is president trump's approval rating right now? The answer depends entirely on who you ask and which specific poll you're staring at.
As of mid-January 2026, the broad average from major trackers like RealClearPolitics and Decision Desk HQ shows a president firmly underwater. Most aggregates have Donald Trump sitting somewhere between 41% and 42.7% approval. Meanwhile, his disapproval is hovering in the mid-50s, typically around 54% to 55%.
Numbers fluctuate. That’s the nature of polling. But the story here isn't just a single percentage point. It’s the trend. In early 2025, right after the inauguration, Trump enjoyed a bit of a "honeymoon" period with a net positive rating. Since then, it’s been a slow, steady slide. For context, Gallup recently pegged him at 36%, matching the low he hit back in 2017.
Why President Trump’s Approval Rating Is Sliding
Politics is rarely about one thing, but right now, the economy is sucking the air out of the room. People are frustrated. You can feel it at the grocery store. Despite the administration's claims that inflation is under control, the public isn't buying it. A Marist poll recently found that a whopping 57% of Americans disapprove of his handling of the economy.
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Basically, the "affordability crisis" has become a massive weight around the administration's neck.
It’s not just the price of eggs, though. Foreign policy is getting messy. Recent military actions in Venezuela and ongoing tensions in the Middle East have voters on edge. According to Quinnipiac, 7 out of 10 voters think the president should have to go through Congress before taking major military action. That’s a huge chunk of the population feeling like the executive branch is overstepping.
The Independent Voter Problem
If you want to know where the real damage is happening, look at the middle. Independents are jumping ship. CNN’s Harry Enten pointed out something pretty wild: Trump started 2025 nearly even with independent voters. Now? He’s nearly 40 points underwater with that group.
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You can’t win a midterm—or much else—without the center.
Breaking Down the Demographics
The coalition that put Trump back in the White House is showing some serious cracks.
- Young Voters: Gen Z support has cratered. After making gains with this group in 2024, his net approval among voters under 30 has dropped by over 40 points in some surveys.
- Hispanic Voters: This is a weird one. While his overall numbers are down, some polls, like the Economist/YouGov tracker, actually show a slight increase in support among Hispanic men, even as his numbers with Hispanic women fall.
- The GOP Base: He still owns the Republican party, but even there, the "strong approval" numbers have dipped from the mid-90s to the low-80s.
What the 2026 Midterms Tell Us
We are officially in a midterm election year. Historically, president trump's approval rating is a massive indicator of how many seats the ruling party will lose in Congress. If the rating stays in the low 40s or high 30s, Republicans are looking at a potential "blue wave" in November.
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Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute, put it bluntly: when people can't afford their lives, they blame the guy at the top. It doesn't matter if the macro-level data says the GDP is growing; if the "vibes" are bad, the approval rating follows.
The "Rigged" Polls Argument
It’s worth noting that the President doesn't agree with these numbers. On Truth Social, he’s claimed his "real" approval is north of 60% and that the mainstream polls are "fake news." While his supporters often point to "silent" voters who don't talk to pollsters, the sheer volume of data from different agencies makes it hard to ignore the general downward trend.
Actionable Insights: How to Track the Real Data
If you’re trying to keep a pulse on where the country actually stands without the partisan spin, don't just look at one headline.
- Use Aggregators: Sites like RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight (now part of ABC News) average multiple polls to smooth out the "outliers" that might be too high or too low.
- Look at "Net Approval": The raw approval number matters, but the gap between approve and disapprove tells you how polarized the electorate is.
- Watch the "Unsure" Category: In many recent polls, the "unsure" or "no opinion" group is shrinking. This means people are hardening their positions, making it harder for the president to win them back before the 2026 elections.
- Follow Issue-Specific Polling: Sometimes a president has a low overall rating but high marks on a specific issue (like crime or border security). If those specific numbers start to drop, the overall rating usually isn't far behind.
The reality of president trump's approval rating in 2026 is that it's a reflection of a deeply divided country dealing with sticker shock at the checkout counter. Whether it’s a temporary dip or a permanent slide will likely be decided by the next few months of economic reports.
Check the latest rolling averages on a weekly basis to see if the recent foreign policy shifts move the needle. Pay close attention to the "Independent" subgroup in the YouGov or Morning Consult weekly releases, as they are the primary "swing" group that will dictate the 2026 legislative landscape.