"I don't even think about USMCA."
That’s what Donald Trump told a crowd of reporters while standing on a Ford factory floor in Dearborn, Michigan, on January 13, 2026. He shrugged. Literally. To him, the massive trade pact that governs nearly $2 trillion in annual commerce between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico is basically "irrelevant."
It was a classic Trump moment. Raw. Jarring for the markets. Totally indifferent to the diplomatic "rules" of the road.
The President was visiting the plant to see the production of F-150 pickups, but the conversation quickly shifted to the mandatory six-year review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) coming up this July. Most people expected a standard, albeit tough, negotiation. Trump, however, decided to flip the table before the meeting even started. He didn't just say he wanted a better deal; he said the U.S. doesn't really need to sign trade deals at all to stay on top.
The End of the "Signed Paper" Era?
For decades, the D.C. consensus has been that signed, multi-country trade agreements are the lifeblood of the global economy. You sign a deal, you lower barriers, and everyone wins—or so the theory goes. Trump is basically calling "BS" on that entire philosophy.
His logic is pretty straightforward, if you listen to what he’s actually saying. He believes the U.S. has such a massive consumer market that other countries need us way more than we need them. "The problem is we don't need their product," Trump said in Dearborn. "We don't need cars made in Canada, we don't need cars made in Mexico, we want to make them here."
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He’s betting that if the U.S. just stops worrying about these big, formal agreements and focuses on domestic production backed by heavy tariffs, the jobs will come screaming back. It’s a "go it alone" strategy that treats trade deals as a luxury, not a necessity.
Honestly, it’s a terrifying prospect for Canada and Mexico. They’ve spent the last year trying to figure out how to placate a White House that seems perfectly happy to let the 2026 review deadline pass without a signature.
Why the USMCA is Suddenly in the Crosshairs
You’ve probably heard people call the USMCA "Trump’s deal." He’s the one who tore up NAFTA to create it. So why is he now calling his own masterpiece "irrelevant"?
- The Fentanyl Factor: Trump has been linking trade directly to border security. Last August, he slapped a 35% tariff on Canadian goods to protest the flow of fentanyl, though he later carved out exemptions for USMCA-compliant products. By saying the deal is irrelevant, he’s basically telling Ottawa and Mexico City that the "protection" the deal offers can be revoked whenever he feels like it.
- The "Transitional" Label: Back in October 2025, during a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump started calling the USMCA "transitional." That was the first big red flag. It suggests he thinks the deal was just a bridge to a world where the U.S. doesn't have any permanent trade ties.
- Domestic Manufacturing Obsession: He’s seeing the Ford plants and the Tesla factories and thinking, "Why are we importing parts from Ontario or Chihuahua when we could just build the whole car in Michigan?"
It’s a massive gamble. The "Detroit Three"—Ford, GM, and Stellantis—are currently freaking out behind the scenes. Their supply chains are so tangled with Canada and Mexico that a total collapse of the USMCA would be like trying to perform surgery on a spiderweb with a pair of gardening shears.
The Tariff-First Strategy
Instead of trade deals, the administration is leaning hard into what people are calling "transactionalism."
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Look at what happened with the PRC (China) earlier this year. Trump didn't sign a 500-page free trade agreement. He signed an "Economic and Trade Arrangement" that basically says: "We’ll suspend our 25% reciprocal tariffs until November 2026 if you keep buying our soybeans and stop messing with our semiconductors."
It’s not a marriage; it’s a series of one-night stands.
This approach is showing up everywhere. On January 14, 2026, the White House issued a proclamation using Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to slap 25% tariffs on advanced computing chips, like the NVIDIA H200. But—and this is the key—they left the door open for "negotiated agreements" to fix national security concerns.
Basically, the President is using tariffs as a club to force people to the table, rather than using a trade deal as a carrot to invite them. He’s telling the world: "I don't need to sign a deal with you to get what I want. I’ll just charge you 25% at the border until you give in."
What Most People Get Wrong About This
A lot of the media coverage makes it sound like Trump is just being "unpredictable" or "chaotic." But there’s a cold, hard logic here that supporters find very appealing.
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The misconception is that no trade deal means "no trade." That’s not it. Trade still happens. It just happens under the shadow of a 10% to 50% baseline tariff. Trump thinks this gives the U.S. "leverage." If Canada wants to sell its lumber here, they have to pay the price or make a specific concession that benefits American workers today, not in ten years.
Critics like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have had to balance this "America First" aggression with the reality of inflation. We’ve seen reports from researchers at the Peterson Institute (PIIE) suggesting that these tariffs could push CPI inflation toward 3.5% in the first half of 2026.
The White House’s response? They’re rolling out "import adjustment offset programs" to try and refund some of those costs to domestic manufacturers so the prices at the store don't skyrocket. It’s a incredibly complex, Rube Goldberg-style economy they're building.
What This Means for You (The Bottom Line)
If you’re a business owner or just someone worried about the price of a new car, here’s the reality of the "no trade deals" world:
- Volatility is the new normal. Without the "guardrails" of a formal treaty like the USMCA, trade rules can change with a single tweet or a midnight Executive Order.
- Supply chains are coming home, but it's expensive. Companies like Ford and John Deere are reporting hundreds of millions in tariff costs. They’re trying to move production to the U.S. to avoid the fees, but that takes years. In the meantime, you might see those costs reflected in the "sticker price."
- The July 2026 Deadline is the big one. That’s when the USMCA review officially hits the fan. If Trump follows through on his "I don't care" attitude, we could see a massive disruption in North American trade that hasn't been seen since the 1980s.
Next Steps for Businesses and Investors:
Keep a close eye on the "De Minimis" thresholds. The administration has already moved to eliminate these for low-value goods to stop the flood of cheap imports from e-commerce giants. If you're importing anything, even small components, your "landed cost" calculations need to include at least a 10-25% tariff buffer for the foreseeable future. Also, watch the Supreme Court—they're currently deciding if the President even has the legal authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to bypass Congress on these tariffs. If the Court strikes it down, the whole "no trade deal" strategy might fall apart by summer.