It happened fast, but it wasn't exactly a shocker. President Trump officially threw his "Complete and Total Endorsement" behind Representative Byron Donalds for the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race. This move basically reshapes the entire political map in Tallahassee before the primary even gets into full gear.
Politics in Florida is usually a contact sport. But when a heavy hitter like Trump steps in this early, the air in the room changes.
Why Byron Donalds?
Look, Donalds isn't just another congressman from Naples. He’s been one of the most visible "America First" advocates in the House. You’ve probably seen him on cable news defending the MAGA platform with a level of polish that few others in the caucus can match. He’s 47, energetic, and a Brooklyn-born Republican who has made a massive name for himself in a relatively short amount of time.
Trump’s endorsement wasn't a quiet press release. It was a "Run, Byron, Run!" call to action posted on Truth Social.
For the former president, Donalds represents a loyalist who won't blink. During the VP search last year, Donalds was on the short list. He didn't get the nod then, but this endorsement for governor feels like the ultimate consolation prize—or maybe even a better fit for his specific brand of combat.
The DeSantis Shadow
Here’s the thing. Governor Ron DeSantis is term-limited. He can't run again in 2026. Naturally, everyone is looking for his successor.
There has been a ton of chatter about First Lady Casey DeSantis. She’s incredibly popular with the base. Some polls showed her leading the pack just on name recognition alone. But Trump’s move to back Donalds puts a massive hurdle in front of any potential "DeSantis dynasty" run.
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It’s no secret that the relationship between Trump and DeSantis has been... let's call it "complicated." By backing Donalds so early, Trump is effectively planting his flag in Florida. He's saying, "The path to the Governor's Mansion goes through Mar-a-Lago."
The 2026 Field is Already Getting Crowded
Just because Trump spoke doesn't mean everyone else is going home. That’s not how Florida works.
On January 12, 2026, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins officially entered the race. Collins is a retired Green Beret, a combat veteran who lost a leg in service. He’s got a compelling story. He’s also seen as the guy most likely to carry on the specific legislative legacy of the DeSantis administration.
Then you have Paul Renner, the former Florida House Speaker. He’s a heavyweight in terms of policy and has deep ties to the donor class in the state. James Fishback, an investor and CEO of Azoria, is also in the mix, positioning himself as a fresh-faced outsider.
Honestly, the polling data is pretty wild right now.
A recent poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates—the same firm Trump used for his national campaigns—shows Donalds with a commanding lead. We’re talking 47% of the GOP primary vote. When voters find out he has the Trump endorsement? That number jumps to a staggering 76% in some scenarios.
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What This Means for the Average Floridian
You might be thinking, "This is all just inside-baseball politics."
But the winner of this primary is very likely the next governor. Florida has shifted from a purple swing state to a solid red fortress over the last decade. Whoever wins the GOP nomination has a massive advantage in the general election against potential Democratic challengers like Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings or former Congressman David Jolly.
Donalds has already started outlining his "Florida First" platform:
- The Insurance Crisis: This is the #1 issue for anyone living in the state. Donalds is promising to overhaul the property insurance market, which has been a nightmare for homeowners.
- Economic Freedom: He wants to make Florida the "financial capital of the world," doubling down on the "Free State of Florida" branding that DeSantis built.
- Infrastructure: Building more roads to keep up with the massive influx of new residents moving south every single day.
Can Anyone Beat the Endorsement?
In 2018, Ron DeSantis was a "little-known congressman" before a Trump tweet changed his life. He beat the establishment favorite, Adam Putnam, and the rest is history.
Can Jay Collins or Paul Renner pull off an upset? It's a steep climb.
The "Trump Effect" in Florida is basically a political cheat code. It secures the donors. It secures the volunteers. It secures the "earned media" that money can't buy. If you’re running against a Trump-backed candidate in a Florida Republican primary, you’re basically fighting a war on two fronts: you’re fighting the candidate and you’re fighting the most popular figure in the party.
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The Road to August 18
The primary is set for August 18, 2026. That feels like a long way off, but in political time, it's about fifteen minutes.
Expect to see Donalds leaning heavily into his relationship with the former president. You’ll see the rallies. You’ll see the joint appearances. On the other side, watch how Jay Collins and Paul Renner try to navigate the "Trump factor." They can't exactly attack Trump—that’s political suicide in Florida—so they’ll likely try to frame themselves as the "more experienced" or "more local" choice.
Basically, the 2026 race is no longer a blank slate. It’s a referendum on the MAGA movement’s grip on the Sunshine State.
What to Watch for Next
If you’re trying to keep track of how this plays out, focus on these three things:
- Fundraising Reports: Look at the "Quarterly Reports" for the Florida Division of Elections. If Donalds starts out-raising everyone 3-to-1, the race might be over before the first debate.
- Casey DeSantis’s Moves: If she stays out, the path for Donalds is much clearer. If she gets in, it’s a political civil war.
- Endorsement Chain Reactions: Watch for state senators and local mayors. They usually wait to see where the wind is blowing. If they start flocking to Donalds, the momentum becomes an avalanche.
The Florida governor’s race is officially the most interesting show in the country. And with Trump’s thumb on the scale, it’s Byron Donalds’ race to lose.
To stay ahead of the curve on this race, you should regularly check the Florida Division of Elections website for updated candidate filings and financial disclosures. Additionally, keep an eye on local Florida outlets like Florida Politics or the Tallahassee Democrat, as they often catch the "whisper" news that national outlets miss until it’s already happened.