If you’ve been refreshing the polls lately, you’ve probably noticed something weird. It’s January 2026, we’ve just finished a full year of the second Trump term, and the needle is basically stuck. It’s like the country is locked in a room where nobody can agree on the temperature, so they just stopped touching the thermostat.
The latest president trump approval rating data shows a man underwater, but remarkably stable. Depending on who you ask—Gallup, Emerson, or the crew over at Quinnipiac—he’s sitting somewhere between 36% and 42% approval. Honestly, it’s a bit of a head-scratcher. After a year of mass deportations, aggressive tariffs, and that wild raid in Venezuela, you’d think the numbers would be swinging wildly.
They aren't. Not really.
The Stuck-in-the-Mud Stats of 2026
Right now, the RealClearPolitics average has him at 42.6% approval. On the flip side, 54.9% of the country isn't happy. That’s a double-digit gap. If you look at the Gallup numbers from late 2025, he actually hit a second-term low of 36%. That’s dangerously close to his all-time basement of 34% back in January 2021.
But here is the thing: his base is a fortress.
Among Republicans, he’s still pulling about 84% to 89% support. That hasn't budged much even with all the noise. Democrats? They’re at 3%. It’s basically a flat line. The real drama—the only drama, really—is happening with the independents.
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Harry Enten over at CNN pointed out something pretty startling recently. In January 2025, Trump was actually above water with independents. He had a +6 net approval. Fast forward to now? He’s roughly 43 points underwater with that same group. That is a massive, 18-point slide in a single year. You can’t win midterms with those kinds of numbers among the people who actually decide elections.
It’s the Prices, Stupid (Still)
Why are people grumpy? It’s not a mystery. It’s the grocery store.
Even though gas prices have dipped a bit, the president trump approval rating is being dragged down by "sticker shock" that just won't quit. People are blaming the current guy for inflation.
- Inflation Approval: Only 36% (Gallup).
- The Economy: 37% to 41% (Marist/Brookings).
- Healthcare: 30% (People are really worried about those rising premiums).
There’s this sense that the administration is focused on "the wrong priorities." While the White House is busy with foreign interventions and trade wars, a lot of families feel like their bank accounts are being ignored. According to a fresh AP-NORC poll, 6 in 10 Americans think Trump has done more to hurt the cost of living than help it.
The Tariff Tension
Tariffs are the signature move this time around. But they're a double-edged sword. While the "America First" crowd loves the idea of bringing manufacturing back, 75% of Americans—including over half of Republicans—believe these tariffs are actually just making things more expensive. It’s hard to brag about a "great economy" when a new toaster costs 20% more than it did two years ago.
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Foreign Policy and the "Maduro Effect"
Early January saw a weird little spike in the numbers. After the U.S. captured Nicolás Maduro in that stunning raid, some polls showed a 3-point tick upward. Reuters/Ipsos had him hitting 42% right after.
It didn't last.
People like a "win," but they’re also terrified of getting sucked into another forever war. About 72% of people in that same poll said they’re worried the U.S. will get too involved in Venezuela. It’s a "thanks, but please don't start a war" kind of vibe.
What Most People Get Wrong About These Polls
A lot of folks assume that because the numbers are low, the 2026 midterms are a done deal for Democrats.
Not so fast.
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Polls are a snapshot, not a prophecy. While the president trump approval rating is low, the Democrats in Congress aren't exactly winning popularity contests either. Quinnipiac found that voters give Democrats a record-low job approval, even if they still plan to vote for them as a "not Trump" option.
Also, about 40% of the electorate says they are willing to change their mind. If the economy suddenly feels "better" by summer—if those tariffs actually start showing results or if inflation finally hits the floor—those independent voters could swing back just as fast as they left.
The Road to the 2026 Midterms
We are heading into a massive election year. Usually, the president's party loses seats in the first midterm. With an approval rating hovering in the low 40s, history says Republicans should be worried.
The "enthusiasm gap" is real.
If you want to track where this is going, stop looking at the national average for a second. Watch the "independents" column in the state-level polls for Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If those numbers stay in the 30s, the GOP is looking at a very rough November.
Actionable Insights for Following the Trends:
- Watch the "Net" Approval: Don't just look at the 40% approval. Look at the "Strongly Disapprove" number. If that crosses 50%, it's very hard to recover.
- Monitor the Fed: If interest rates drop and the housing market moves, Trump’s economic approval will likely follow.
- Check the "Right Track/Wrong Track" Ratio: Currently, over 70% think the country is on the wrong track. That is usually the best predictor of how people will actually vote.
The next few months are going to be a rollercoaster. Between the 2028 jockeying starting up and the daily headlines, those approval numbers are the only scorecard that truly matters for the administration's survival.