You’ve probably seen the headlines. There is a lot of noise right now about what the president of Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum is actually doing in the National Palace. People love to compare her to her predecessor, AMLO. Some say she’s just a continuation. Others think she’s a radical departure.
The truth? It’s complicated.
Honestly, if you look at the data from early 2026, she’s carving out a path that is surprisingly distinct, especially when it comes to the "Big Green State" and her handling of a very loud neighbor to the north. She isn't just a scientist playing politician; she's a strategist dealing with a high-stakes geopolitical poker game.
The Trump Factor and the Sovereignty Line
The biggest story right now is the tension with Donald Trump. Just this week, in mid-January 2026, Sheinbaum had to draw a very firm line. Trump has been floating the idea of sending U.S. troops into Mexico to "help" with the cartels. He’s pointed to the U.S. incursion into Venezuela as a blueprint.
Sheinbaum isn't biting.
During a 15-minute phone call on January 12, she basically told him thanks, but no thanks. She recounted the conversation in her mañanera, saying she told him point-blank that military intervention is "not on the table." It’s a delicate dance. She needs the USMCA trade deal to stay intact—especially with the 2026 review looming—but she can’t look weak at home.
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The "coordination without subordination" mantra isn't just a catchy slogan. It’s her actual foreign policy. She’s touting a 50% reduction in fentanyl crossing the border and a 43% drop in overdose deaths to prove that her way—intelligence and cooperation—is working better than a unilateral strike ever would.
Is the Security Strategy Actually Working?
Security is the elephant in the room. Everyone in Mexico wants to know when the violence will actually stop.
Critics say she's just "militarizing" more by putting the National Guard under the Ministry of Defense (SEDENA). But Sheinbaum points to the numbers. In her January 8 report, she highlighted a 37% decrease in the daily average of intentional homicides since she took office in late 2024.
That’s a massive drop.
The Four Pillars She Swears By
- Root Causes: Continuing the social programs to keep kids out of cartels.
- National Guard Consolidation: Moving them fully into the military structure for "discipline."
- Intelligence over Bullets: This is where she differs from the old "Kingpin strategy." She's using data.
- State Coordination: Actually getting governors to talk to the feds, which is harder than it sounds.
Law enforcement has seized about 311 tons of drugs and 20,000 firearms in just over a year. That’s a lot of hardware off the streets. But if you live in places like Sinaloa or Michoacán, the "feeling" of safety hasn't quite caught up to the statistics yet. There's a gap between the National Palace data and the reality on the ground in high-conflict zones.
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The "Big Green State" and the 2026 Economy
Sheinbaum is a climate scientist by trade. You can see it in "Plan México," her massive economic blueprint. She wants Mexico to be the 10th largest economy in the world by 2030.
How? By betting on state-run energy.
She recently passed 14 new energy laws. The goal is to keep 54% of power generation in state hands (CFE). This has the business community kind of nervous. They worry about efficiency. Sheinbaum, however, argues that you can't have "green" growth if the private sector is just chasing quarterly profits.
Economic Reality Check
- Minimum Wage: It just went up 13% on January 1, 2026.
- Work Week: There’s a huge push to move from 48 hours to 40.
- Housing: The goal for 2026 is 404,000 new homes under the "Vivienda para el Bienestar" program.
Inflation is finally dipping below 4%, which is a huge win for her. But the Moody’s Analytics crowd is still skeptical, claiming the Bank of Mexico has lost some "credibility" by cutting rates too fast while inflation was still high. Sheinbaum doesn't care. She publicly praised Banxico Governor Victoria Rodríguez this week, calling her "studious" and "professional." It was a clear signal: the executive and the central bank are on the same page, whether Wall Street likes it or not.
What Most People Miss
People often overlook her "Era of Women" initiative. It sounds like fluff, but she’s actually changed the constitution to enshrine "substantive equality." She created a whole Ministry of Women.
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Is it perfect? No.
The disappearance crisis in Mexico is still a nightmare. Civil society groups like WOLA have pointed out that while she’s great at passing laws, the actual access to justice for women on the street remains a massive hurdle. You can’t just legislate away decades of systemic violence.
What This Means for You
If you're watching the president of Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum because of investment, travel, or politics, here is the bottom line. She is much more technocratic than AMLO. She relies on people like Security Minister Omar García Harfuch to run things with surgical precision rather than just populist rhetoric.
She is betting everything on the idea that a strong, state-led economy can survive the volatility of the U.S. political cycle.
Key Actions to Watch in 2026
- The USMCA Review: This is the big one. Watch how she handles the "Made in Mexico" requirements (she wants 50% domestic content).
- Digital Infrastructure: She’s pushing hard on digital literacy in underserved areas to boost the tech sector.
- The World Cup 2026: Mexico is co-hosting. Expect a massive push in infrastructure and "beautification" projects in CDMX, Monterrey, and Guadalajara over the next few months.
Next Steps for Staying Informed
To truly understand the trajectory of Sheinbaum's term, track the quarterly progress reports on "Plan México" and the National Housing Program. These will reveal whether the 13% wage hike and the "Big Green State" energy transition are actually driving GDP growth or just fueling the "red light" indicators that some analysts are warning about. Pay close attention to the upcoming high-level meetings between Foreign Minister Juan Ramón de la Fuente and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio; these will dictate if the "sovereignty" line holds or if trade tariffs become the new weapon of choice against Mexico's independent streak.