The dust has barely settled on the 2025 season, but the Big 12 is already looking like a beautiful, chaotic mess for 2026. Honestly, if you’re looking for a conference with a predictable hierarchy, you’re in the wrong place. This league has basically turned into a 16-team game of musical chairs where the music never actually stops.
Everybody wants to talk about who’s "the favorite," but in this conference, that title is usually a curse. Last year, people were ready to hand the trophy to various preseason darlings, only to watch Texas Tech and BYU rip up the script. Now, as we look at the preseason Big 12 football rankings for the 2026 campaign, the landscape is shifting again.
Why the Top of the Big 12 is a Total Toss-Up
Texas Tech is the name on everyone’s lips right now. They finished 2025 on a tear, sitting as high as No. 4 in the major polls toward the end of the year. Joey McGuire has finally built that "brand" he kept talking about. They’ve got the recruiting momentum too—currently sitting with a top-ranked 2026 class in the conference according to 247Sports.
But here’s the thing.
Winning as the hunter is easy. Winning as the hunted? That’s where things get weird. The Red Raiders are likely to start the season as the consensus No. 1 in the Big 12, but they’ve got a target on their back that hasn’t been there in decades.
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The Contenders Waiting in the Tall Grass
Then you have BYU. People keep waiting for the Cougars to fall off, but they just keep winning. They finished 11-1 or 10-2 depending on which late-season chaos you’re looking at, and they’ve shown they can handle the travel and the physical toll of this league. They miss Texas Tech on the regular-season schedule in 2026, which is a massive break.
Don't sleep on Arizona State, either. Kenny Dillingham has turned that program around faster than anyone expected. Even with some late-season injuries in '25, the Sun Devils proved they have the depth to compete. If Sam Leavitt stays healthy and continues his trajectory, they are a nightmare matchup for anyone.
The Messy Middle and the Transfer Portal Factor
We have to talk about the portal because, frankly, it’s going to change these rankings three times before August.
West Virginia and Oklahoma State are in weird spots. The Pokes had a rough 2025, finishing at the bottom of the standings in a way that felt almost surreal for a Mike Gundy team. Can they bounce back? Probably. Gundy usually does. But the roster is in flux. Meanwhile, West Virginia is losing key starters like their star running back to the portal, making their "preseason" outlook look a bit shaky.
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A Quick Look at the Projected Pecking Order
- Texas Tech: The undisputed kings of the moment. Best recruiting, best momentum.
- BYU: Consistency is their superpower. The schedule helps them a lot.
- Arizona State: A high-ceiling team that could easily win the whole thing.
- Utah: They’re the "bully" of the league. If the QB play is stable, they’re top-tier.
- Kansas State: Avery Johnson is the most electric player in the conference. Period.
It’s tempting to put Kansas or Iowa State higher, but both teams are dealing with the reality of being "hunted" now. Kansas State is particularly interesting because they have the most stable coaching situation and a quarterback who can erase a lot of mistakes.
The "What If" Teams: Houston and Colorado
Houston is the biggest wildcard. Willie Fritz is doing Willie Fritz things—building a disciplined, tough roster that doesn't beat itself. They’ve been active in the portal, grabbing guys like Trent Walker from Oregon State to give them more weapons. They might not be a "top 3" team yet, but they are going to ruin someone’s season in November.
And Colorado? It’s a circus, sure, but a talented one. After a 4-8 or 3-9 finish in 2025 (depending on who you ask), the pressure is reaching a boiling point in Boulder. They’ve lost some depth to the portal, including backup QB Ryan Staub, and the "vibes" are... questionable.
Realities Most Fans Ignore
The travel schedule in the new Big 12 is a silent killer.
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Teams moving from the Eastern Time Zone to the Mountain Time Zone on short weeks is a recipe for upsets. That’s why these preseason Big 12 football rankings often look stupid by October. You can have the better roster, but if you’re playing your third road game in four weeks at 4,500 feet of elevation, you’re in trouble.
Also, the "middle" of this league—teams like TCU, UCF, and Cincinnati—are all capable of beating the top five on any given Saturday. There’s no "off" week in this conference anymore.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you’re trying to make sense of the chaos, look at three things:
- Returning Production at QB: Teams like Kansas State (Johnson) and Arizona State (Leavitt) have a massive head start over programs hitting the portal for a starter.
- November Schedules: Look for the teams that play at home during the final three weeks. Home-field advantage is magnified in this league.
- The Trenches: Utah and Texas Tech are currently the only teams that consistently win the line of scrimmage. Until someone else proves they can hold up physically for 12 games, those two remain the safest bets.
The best way to stay ahead of the curve is to monitor the spring portal window. A single defensive tackle or a veteran left tackle moving to a mid-tier team like Baylor or West Virginia can shift the power balance of a whole pod.
Keep an eye on the injury reports coming out of spring ball. In a league this balanced, the difference between a 10-win season and a 6-win season is usually just one or two key players staying on the field. Expect the unexpected, because that’s the only thing the Big 12 actually guarantees.