If you’ve spent any time looking at the Premier League table this week, you probably think the bottom three is already set in stone. The bookies certainly do. Looking at the premiership odds for relegation as we hit mid-January 2026, there is a massive sense of "game over" for a few clubs. But honestly? The math in football rarely accounts for the sheer chaos of a January transfer window or a desperate managerial swap.
Wolverhampton Wanderers are sitting at the bottom with a measly 7 points from 21 games. That’s grim. It’s actually the worst start in the history of the Premier League. Most betting sites like bet365 and Sky Bet have them priced at 1/50 or even 1/500 to go down. Basically, if you bet on Wolves to get relegated now, you’re just giving the bookmaker a very small interest-free loan.
But the "safe" bets aren't always where the value is.
The Wolves and Burnley Trap
Wolves are essentially a lock. We can be real about that. When a team has only one win by the middle of January, you’re looking at a squad that has forgotten how to breathe, let alone score. Rob Edwards has come in to try and steady the ship, but a 14-point gap to safety is a mountain, not a hill.
Then you have Burnley.
They came up from the Championship after a 100-point season, and everyone thought they’d be the ones to stick. Instead, they’ve hit a wall. Hard. With only 13 points and no wins in their last 12 matches, their odds have slashed to 1/25. It’s funny how a team can look like world-beaters in May and look like they’ve never played together by December.
The bookies aren't just looking at the points, though. They’re looking at the "vibes"—or more accurately, the underlying metrics. Burnley’s defensive style worked in the second tier, but in the Premier League, you can’t just sit back and hope for a 0-0. Eventually, Haaland or Saka is going to find a gap.
Why West Ham is the Real Story
This is where it gets interesting for anyone tracking premiership odds for relegation. West Ham is currently in 18th place. They have 14 points. They’ve conceded 43 goals, which is the worst in the entire league.
Normally, a club of that size with that much talent doesn't stay down there. But the odds are hovering around 1/5 to 1/12. That is incredibly short for a team that was in Europe not too long ago. They just brought in Paco Jémez to help Nuno Espírito Santo, and they’re throwing £50 million at the problem this January.
Will it work?
👉 See also: Crack stream UFC 319: What Really Happened with the Stream Quality
History says maybe. But the data says they are in serious trouble. Their goal difference of -21 is a lead weight around their necks. If they finish level on points with someone like Nottingham Forest (who are currently 17th with 21 points), that goal difference will be the thing that sends them to the Championship.
Sunderland: The Outlier Nobody Expected
If you want to talk about who ruined everyone's "relegation lock" bets this year, it’s Sunderland.
At the start of the 2025/26 season, they were the favorites to go straight back down. Most experts had them dead last. Instead, they’ve picked up 30 points and are sitting comfortably in 10th. Their odds to go down have drifted out to 50/1 or higher.
It’s a reminder that the gap between the Championship and the Premier League isn’t always a chasm. Sometimes a team just clicks. While Burnley and Leeds (to an extent) have struggled with the step up, Sunderland has treated it like a walk in the park.
The Mid-Table Anxiety
Don't think the teams in 14th or 15th are safe either.
- Tottenham (27 points): They’ve been weirdly inconsistent, and while 80/1 odds for relegation seem high, a bad February could see those odds tumble.
- Bournemouth (26 points): They are only five points clear of the drop. One injury to a key striker and they are right back in the mix.
- Leeds United (22 points): Daniel Farke has them on a seven-game unbeaten run, but they are still only eight points above the drop zone.
The "magic 40 points" number is the traditional safety net. However, in recent years, we've seen teams survive with as little as 26 or 30 points because the bottom three were so historically bad. Last season, Leicester went down with 25. If the current trend continues, 32 points might be enough to stay up this year. That changes how you look at the betting markets entirely.
How Points Deductions Change the Math
We can't talk about relegation odds in 2026 without mentioning the legal side of the game. Financial Fair Play (or PSR) has become a 12th man for some teams and a red card for others.
While there are no active deductions currently crippling the bottom three, the threat always looms. If a mid-table team like Everton or Forest gets hit with a 6-point or 10-point penalty in March, the entire relegation landscape shifts overnight. This is why some professional bettors stay away from these markets until the final "accounts" are cleared by the league. It's not just about football anymore; it's about accountants.
💡 You might also like: Football Game Clear Bags: Why They Actually Matter and What to Buy Before Kickoff
What Most People Get Wrong
People tend to bet on the "big" club to survive just because they are big. "West Ham is too good to go down." We heard that about Leeds. We heard that about Leicester. We even heard it about Everton for years before they finally stabilized.
The reality is that the premiership odds for relegation are built on cold, hard probability. Bookies don't care about the size of your stadium. They care that you haven't won a game in ten tries. If you're looking at these odds, look at the "Expected Goals" (xG) data.
Interestingly, Wolves have actually been playing better than their 7 points suggest. Their xG indicates they should probably have 15 or 16 points. In a normal season, you'd expect them to "regress to the mean" and start winning. But when you're this far behind, mental fatigue sets in. The players stop believing the math, and that's when the odds become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
What to Look for Before You Bet
If you’re tracking these numbers, keep an eye on the "six-pointer" games coming up in late January and February.
- Head-to-Head Records: Check how the bottom five play against each other. Burnley has already lost to West Ham, which was a huge blow to their survival hopes.
- January Signings: A single £20m striker who can nick three or four goals before May is worth £100m in TV revenue.
- The "New Manager Bounce": It's a cliché for a reason. West Ham’s appointment of Jémez is a massive gamble, but if they win their next two games, their 1/5 odds will vanish instantly.
The relegation battle is often more exciting than the title race because the stakes are so much higher. Losing your spot in the Premier League is a financial catastrophe. It’s a drama that plays out in the betting shops and on the pitch simultaneously.
Watch the movement on Leeds and Forest over the next three weeks. If their odds start to shorten despite them being "safe" now, it usually means the professional money knows something about an upcoming injury or a potential points deduction that hasn't hit the headlines yet.
Stay sharp. The bottom of the table is a shark tank.
Actionable Insights for Following the Relegation Race:
- Track the xG Difference: Look for teams like Wolves who are underperforming their metrics; they might be a "stay up" value bet if the price is right.
- Monitor the Transfer Window: Focus specifically on defensive reinforcements for West Ham and Burnley; if they don't fix the leak by February 1st, they are done.
- Watch the "Goal Difference" Gap: In a tight race, a -20 goal difference is effectively an extra point you have to earn on the pitch.
- Check the Injury Room: For smaller squads like Bournemouth or Brentford, a single ACL tear to a top scorer can shift relegation odds from 100/1 to 10/1 in a weekend.