If you’ve spent any time looking at the 2025/26 standings lately, you know it feels a little like the world has tilted on its axis. We are 21 games into the season, and honestly, the traditional "Big Six" hierarchy has basically been shredded.
You’ve got Arsenal sitting at the summit with 49 points, looking more like a well-oiled machine than they ever did in the Wenger years. But then you look at 10th place and see Sunderland. Yes, the Black Cats. A team that was in the Championship last year is currently sitting higher than Tottenham.
It's wild.
The Premier League table statistics that are breaking the models
Most people look at the points column and think they’ve seen the whole story. They haven't. If you dig into the underlying data—the stuff like Expected Goals (xG) and shot efficiency—you’ll see that some of these teams are living on borrowed time, while others are suffering from the worst luck imaginable.
Take Aston Villa, for example. Unai Emery has them in 3rd place with 43 points, tied with Manchester City. On paper, it looks like a title charge. But the advanced Premier League table statistics from Opta tell a much weirder story. Based on the quality of chances they’ve created and conceded (xG), Villa "should" be sitting in 13th place with roughly 25 points. They are over-performing their data by a staggering 18 points.
Is it sustainable? Probably not.
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But when you have Emiliano Martínez playing like he’s actually ten feet tall and Ollie Watkins turning half-chances into top-corner rockets, the math starts to bend. At some point, you have to wonder if the "expected" stats are just failing to capture the sheer clinical nature of this specific Villa squad.
Why Manchester City isn't as scary (statistically) right now
City is 2nd. Normally, that’s where they lurk before the annual spring win-streak where they destroy everyone's hopes and dreams. But something feels off this year.
Pep Guardiola’s side has 45 goals, the highest in the league, largely thanks to Erling Haaland, who has already bagged 20. But they’ve also slumped into a weird run of three consecutive draws. Their xGA (Expected Goals Against) is 23.1, which is significantly higher than Arsenal’s 14.8. For the first time in years, City looks vulnerable to a counter-attack.
They’ve replaced the patient, soul-crushing possession of 2024 with a more direct style, but it’s come at the cost of defensive control.
The survival gap and the "Doomed Three"
Down at the bottom, the situation is grim. Like, historically grim.
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We’re seeing a massive divide that experts at Sky Sports and Squawka are calling a "gulf of quality." Look at Wolverhampton Wanderers. They have 7 points. Total. From 21 games. They’ve managed one single win all season.
Basically, they are dead in the water.
- Wolverhampton: 7 points, -26 goal difference.
- Burnley: 13 points, -19 goal difference.
- West Ham: 14 points, -21 goal difference.
West Ham is the biggest shock here. Sacking Graham Potter in September didn't fix the leak. They are currently seven points away from Nottingham Forest in 17th. In a league where every point feels like pulling teeth, a seven-point gap in January is a mountain.
The crazy thing? The promoted teams aren't the ones failing this time. Sunderland is 10th. Leeds is 16th and looking relatively safe with 22 points. It’s the established clubs—the ones who spent big but recruited poorly—that are drowning.
The return of the "Proper Number 9"
For a while there, everyone wanted to play with a "False Nine" or a fluid front three. That's over.
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This season's Premier League table statistics show a massive resurgence in traditional strikers. Haaland is the obvious one, but look at Igor Thiago at Brentford. He has 16 goals. He’s a physical nightmare for defenders and has single-handedly kept Brentford in 5th place.
Even Leeds has found a lifeline in Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who has nine goals. It turns out that in a league where teams are playing more long passes (up 1.5% across the league this year), having a big guy who can actually win a header is kind of a cheat code.
Key takeaways for the rest of the 2026 season
If you’re trying to figure out how this ends, stop looking at the "Form" column and start looking at the schedule and injury lists. Arsenal has the best defensive xG in the league (0.62 per game), which is usually the hallmark of a champion.
Manchester United and Chelsea are in the middle of managerial transitions—Liam Rosenior at Chelsea and a post-Amorim era at United—which makes them total wildcards for the Champions League spots.
- Check the xG Over-performance: Watch Aston Villa. If their luck turns, they could slide down the table fast.
- Fade the Bottom Three: Unless Wolves or Burnley pull off a "Great Escape" miracle, the relegation spots might be decided by March.
- Watch the "Sunderland Effect": Sunderland’s 10th place isn't a fluke; they have the 5th best defensive record in the league. They are legit.
The smart move right now is to keep an eye on the gap between 5th and 15th. It’s only seven points. One bad week and a team like Crystal Palace or Tottenham could find themselves in a genuine crisis.
Start tracking the "High Press" success rates for the top four. Arsenal leads the league in turnovers forced in the final third, and that’s why David Raya has 10 clean sheets. As long as they keep the ball away from their own box, they remain the favorites to finally lift the trophy in May.