Honestly, it's getting a bit ridiculous. Every August, we sit around debating if the "blueprint" to stop Manchester City has finally been figured out. We talk about tactical shifts and high lines. Then, the season starts, and Erling Haaland just starts wrecking everything in sight again.
As we sit in mid-January 2026, the premier league scoring leaders list looks remarkably familiar at the top, but there are some genuinely wild stories bubbling just underneath the surface. If you’ve been following the 2025/26 campaign, you know it hasn't exactly been a "normal" year. We’ve seen established legends like Mohamed Salah focusing more on AFCON glory with Egypt lately, while new faces like Igor Thiago are making life miserable for defenders who probably didn't know who they were two years ago.
Let’s get into the actual numbers. No fluff.
The Nordic Robot is Breaking 2026
Erling Haaland currently sits at 20 goals in just 21 matches. He’s essentially averaging a goal every 91 minutes. Think about that for a second. Every time he steps onto a pitch, you can basically just pencil in a 1-0 lead for City before the halftime oranges are even sliced.
He’s not just "tapping them in" either, though he's still the king of the six-yard box. This season, he’s accounted for roughly 44% of Manchester City’s total league goals. With Pep Guardiola’s side currently chasing Arsenal in a tight title race, Haaland’s efficiency is the only reason they’re still within striking distance.
What’s interesting is his shot map. He's had 83 shots so far, and his Expected Goals (xG) is sitting around 18.52. That means he’s actually overperforming his stats. He’s scoring chances that shouldn’t even be goals. Most strikers regress to the mean eventually, but Haaland seems to have a personal vendetta against math.
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The Brazilian Challenger Nobody Saw Coming
If you told a Brentford fan a year ago that they’d have a player breathing down Haaland’s neck, they probably would have assumed Ivan Toney had returned from a time machine. Instead, it’s Igor Thiago.
The guy has been a revelation. With 16 goals to his name, he’s the clear second-place holder among the premier league scoring leaders.
- He’s clinical from the spot: 5 of his goals have come from penalties.
- Physicality: He’s been the perfect target man for Keith Andrews' system.
- Hat-trick Hero: He recently bagged a hat-trick that essentially ended any doubt about whether his early-season form was a fluke.
While Haaland relies on the surgical precision of City's midfield, Thiago is often doing the heavy lifting himself. He missed a huge chunk of his debut season due to injury, which makes this explosion even more impressive. He’s not just a "Brentford good" player; he's legitimately elite right now.
The Chasing Pack: Semenyo and the Leeds Revival
Third place is currently held by Antoine Semenyo with 10 goals. Now, this is where the stats get a little funky depending on who you talk to, because Semenyo is technically playing for Manchester City now after a massive move from Bournemouth. He’s adjusted to life in Manchester surprisingly well, providing a different, more direct threat compared to the tiki-taka style of Phil Foden (who has 7 goals himself).
Then you have the feel-good story of the season: Dominic Calvert-Lewin at Leeds United.
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Leeds is back in the big time, and DCL has found his scoring boots at Elland Road. He’s sitting on 9 goals. He’s staying fit, which is the big thing. When he's healthy, he's a menace in the air.
A Quick Glance at the Top 10 (as of Jan 2026):
- Erling Haaland (Man City): 20 Goals
- Igor Thiago (Brentford): 16 Goals
- Antoine Semenyo (Man City): 10 Goals
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds): 9 Goals
- Hugo Ekitike (Liverpool): 8 Goals
- Bruno Guimaraes (Newcastle): 8 Goals
- Danny Welbeck (Brighton): 8 Goals
- Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace): 8 Goals
- Harry Wilson (Fulham): 7 Goals
- Richarlison (Tottenham): 7 Goals
Where is Mohamed Salah?
This is the question every Fantasy Premier League manager is screaming into their pillow. Salah has 4 goals this season. Just four.
Now, before you say he's washed, look at the context. He’s been heavily involved with Egypt’s AFCON run, and Arne Slot has been using him in a slightly deeper, more creative role when he is at Anfield. He’s still a threat—his xG is actually higher than his goal count (4.54 xG)—but he’s not the 30-goal-a-season monster we saw in 2024.
Instead, Liverpool’s goals are being shared. Hugo Ekitike has stepped up with 8 goals, proving that the post-Klopp era at Liverpool is more about a collective press than a single superstar. It's a weird transition. Honestly, seeing Salah so far down the list of premier league scoring leaders feels like a glitch in the Matrix.
The Midfield Goal-Scoring Surge
One of the coolest trends this season is how many "non-strikers" are hitting the board. Bruno Guimaraes has 8 goals for Newcastle. That’s insane for a guy who is supposed to be anchoring the midfield. He’s been given a license to roam by Eddie Howe, and it’s paying off big time.
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Similarly, Phil Foden and Morgan Rogers (7 goals) are showing that the modern "number 10" is basically just a second striker. The lines are blurring. You don't need to be a 6'4" brute to lead the charts anymore, though having one certainly helps if his name is Erling.
What to Watch for in the Second Half
The Golden Boot race usually tightens up in February and March. History tells us that Haaland rarely goes more than two games without scoring, but the heavy Champions League schedule might force Pep to rotate him. That’s the window Igor Thiago needs.
If you're looking at the betting markets or just trying to win your office pool, keep an eye on Ollie Watkins. He’s only on 7 goals right now, but Aston Villa's underlying numbers are fantastic. Unai Emery has them playing a style that creates a ton of high-value chances. Watkins is due for a massive February.
On the flip side, beware of the "penalty merchants." Igor Thiago and Jean-Philippe Mateta have a high percentage of their goals coming from the spot. If their teams stop drawing fouls in the box, their scoring rates will tank. Haaland doesn't have that problem—most of his goals are from open play, which is why he's the safest bet to finish on top.
Actionable Insights for the Rest of the Season
If you want to stay ahead of the curve on the premier league scoring leaders, stop looking at just the "Goals" column.
- Check the xG/90: Players like Junior Kroupi (Bournemouth) have a crazy high goal-per-minute ratio (scoring every 82 minutes). If he gets more starts, he’ll rocket up the charts.
- Follow the Schedule: Arsenal and Liverpool have a "lighter" February. Expect their attackers to make up ground.
- Watch the AFCON Return: Once Salah and the other African stars return in late January, the goal-scoring dynamics for several top-six clubs will shift overnight.
The race isn't over. While Haaland has a four-goal lead, one hamstring tweak or a red card could change everything. But for now, we’re all just living in Erling’s world. He’s the benchmark, the outlier, and the most inevitable force in English football history.
To keep track of these shifts, focus on the "Big Chances Created" stats for the teams. A striker is only as good as the service he gets. If City's midfield stays healthy, Haaland might actually hit 35 again. If they stumble, the door is wide open for a new king like Thiago to take the crown.