Honestly, if you looked at the table back in August, you probably didn’t see this coming. We are sitting here in mid-January 2026, and the math for the premier league matches left is starting to get a bit scary for some and incredibly exciting for others. Arsenal is sitting pretty at the top with 50 points after 22 games, but after that 0-0 draw against Nottingham Forest yesterday, things feel... shaky.
Mikel Arteta’s side had a golden chance to move nine points clear. They didn't. Instead, they hit a wall at the City Ground, and now everyone from Manchester City to a resurgent Aston Villa is smelling blood.
There are roughly 16 games left for most clubs. That's 48 points still up for grabs. In a season where Wolves are sitting on a measly 8 points and West Ham is actually struggling to stay afloat, those remaining fixtures are everything.
The Math of the Title Race (It’s Getting Weird)
Arsenal has 50 points. Manchester City and Aston Villa are both sitting on 43. If Villa beats Everton today, that gap shrinks to four.
You’ve got to look at the schedule. The big one everyone is circling in red ink is Liverpool vs. Manchester City on February 8. That's a massive pivot point. If City wins that, the pressure on Arsenal to be perfect becomes almost unbearable. We’ve seen this movie before, right? City starts slow, everyone thinks they’re vulnerable, and then Pep Guardiola’s machine rattles off 12 wins in a row while everyone else panics.
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But Arsenal looks different this year. Mostly. The addition of players like Martín Zubimendi has given them a control they lacked before. However, the "Viktor Gyökeres problem" is real. He’s only got five league goals. After the Forest game, fans are already calling for Gabriel Jesus to start. When you have so few premier league matches left, you can't afford to "wait" for a striker to find his boots.
Key Dates for Your Calendar:
- January 25: Arsenal vs. Manchester United. This is huge. United is sitting 5th and desperate for Champions League football.
- February 1: Tottenham vs. Manchester City. Spurs are in 14th (yes, really), but they always seem to ruin City's day.
- March 1: Arsenal vs. Chelsea. A London derby with title implications is always chaos.
The Relegation Nightmare at the Bottom
It’s grim down there. Like, really grim.
Wolves are basically "dead in the water," as some pundits are putting it. One win in 22 games? That’s historically bad. Burnley (14 pts) and West Ham (17 pts) are the other two in the drop zone right now.
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It’s wild to see West Ham this low. They are seven points away from Nottingham Forest in 17th. With 16 games to go, they need to win roughly half of their remaining matches just to hit that "magic" 40-point mark, though most experts think 35 might be enough this year because the bottom three are so poor.
Sunderland, on the other hand, is the feel-good story no one expected. They’re sitting in 8th place! Imagine telling a Sunderland fan two years ago they’d be above Tottenham and West Ham in January 2026. Absolute madness.
Why the Schedule is a Trap
One thing people forget when counting premier league matches left is the European distraction. Arsenal, City, and Liverpool are all still deep in continental competitions.
Liverpool plays Qarabag on January 28, then Newcastle on the 31st. The turnaround is brutal. This is usually where the injuries start piling up. We’re already seeing it with Forest—Sean Dyche is basically begging for strikers because Chris Wood and John Victor are out with knee injuries.
If you’re a betting person or just a fan trying to plan your weekends, watch the "double gameweeks." Because of domestic cup runs, some teams are going to end up playing three times in eight days in April. That is where titles are lost. It’s not about who has the best XI anymore; it’s about who has the best 18.
What to Watch For Next
Basically, the league is split into three mini-leagues right now.
There’s the Top 3 (Arsenal, City, Villa) fighting for the crown. Then there’s the "Chaos Cluster" from 4th down to 10th—Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea, Brentford, Newcastle, Sunderland, and Fulham. They are all separated by just five points. One bad week and you go from Champions League dreams to the Europa Conference League.
Then there’s the survival scrap.
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, keep a close eye on the transfer window closing soon. Teams like Forest and West Ham are desperate for goals. If they don't find a striker in the next two weeks, those premier league matches left will start feeling like a slow march to the Championship.
The most important thing to do right now is look at the home/away split for your team. Arsenal has several tough away trips remaining (Spurs, Liverpool, United). If they can't find a way to score away from the Emirates—unlike that dud at Forest—the trophy is going back to Manchester or, shockingly, to Birmingham.
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Check the official Premier League app for the specific broadcast times, as the "Flex" scheduling for March and April hasn't been fully locked in yet. You’ll want to make sure you’ve cleared your schedule for that February 8th clash between Liverpool and City—it’s probably the most important game of the season so far.