The energy at Pimlico for the 150th running of the Preakness Stakes felt different. Maybe it was the looming reality of the "Old Hilltop" renovations or just the sheer weight of a century and a half of history. But honestly, the real tension started days before the gates actually opened. It all came down to the Preakness 2025 post position draw, a moment that usually dictates how the first quarter-mile of the "Middle Jewel" is won or lost.
In a nine-horse field, you’d think there’s plenty of room. You'd be wrong.
When the pill pulled for Journalism, the 8-5 morning-line favorite, it revealed Post 2. For a horse that likes to be involved early, that’s a bit of a claustrophobic spot. Everyone remembers the Kentucky Derby just two weeks prior, where Journalism chased Sovereignty home only to finish second. Coming into Baltimore, trainer Michael McCarthy knew the draw would either be a launchpad for redemption or a trap against the rail.
The Strategy Behind the Preakness 2025 Post Position Draw
Post positions aren't just numbers on a saddle cloth. They are tactical assignments. At Pimlico, the turns are famously tight. If you’re stuck outside in Post 9, like Gosger was, you’re basically running an extra marathon just to clear the first bend.
If you’re inside, like Goal Oriented (Post 1) or Journalism (Post 2), you’re saving ground, but you’re also at the mercy of the "kickback." That’s the sand and dirt flying into a horse’s face from the leaders. Some horses hate it. They’ll literally back out of the race if they get pelted too hard.
Here is how the field looked once the dust settled on the Monday draw:
- 1. Goal Oriented (6-1): Flavien Prat and Bob Baffert. A dangerous combo from the rail.
- 2. Journalism (8-5): The heavy favorite. Umberto Rispoli had to figure out how to avoid getting pinned.
- 3. American Promise (15-1): D. Wayne Lukas’s hope, trying to bounce back from a rough 16th-place finish in the Derby.
- 4. Heart of Honor (12-1): The international wildcard from Dubai.
- 5. Pay Billy (20-1): The local qualifier who won the Federico Tesio.
- 6. River Thames (9-2): Todd Pletcher’s main threat, sitting in the statistically "luckiest" post.
- 7. Sandman (4-1): John Velazquez aboard a horse that finished 7th in the Derby but had the pedigree to win.
- 8. Clever Again (5-1): A Steve Asmussen trainee with Jose Ortiz.
- 9. Gosger (20-1): The Lexington Stakes winner who ended up with the widest draw possible.
Does the "Lucky Post 6" Still Matter?
Before the race, a lot of bettors were hammering River Thames simply because he drew Post 6. Historically, Post 6 has been the winningest spot at Pimlico since the starting gate was introduced in 1909. It has a win percentage around 14.9%.
But history is a fickle mistress.
The Preakness 2025 post position draw actually favored the "Derby trio"—Journalism, Sandman, and American Promise—more than the stats suggested. Because the field was small (only nine runners), the disadvantage of the outside post for Gosger was slightly mitigated. There was less traffic to navigate compared to the 20-horse traffic jam at Churchill Downs.
How the Draw Played Out on the Track
When the gates finally flew open at 7:01 p.m. EDT on May 17, 2025, the "inside trap" almost claimed its victim. Journalism had a bit of a sluggish start. He got shuffled back slightly as Goal Oriented tried to use the rail to establish dominance.
Umberto Rispoli didn't panic.
That’s the hallmark of an expert ride. He sat patient in the pocket while the pace stayed honest—fractions of :23.19 for the quarter and :46.66 for the half. If Journalism had been in Post 8 or 9, he might have been forced to go four-wide around the turn. Instead, the Post 2 draw allowed him to creep up the rail, saving every inch of dirt.
By the time they hit the stretch, it was a dogfight. Gosger, despite the Post 9 disadvantage, had made a massive move to challenge for the lead. But Journalism found a gap. He surged through the narrowest of openings, passing Gosger in the final strides to win by half a length.
Payouts and Reality Checks
If you followed the "expert" advice that the inner rail was a death sentence for a favorite, you missed out. Journalism paid $4.00 on a $2 win bet. Not a life-changing score, but a solid affirmation that talent beats a "bad" draw in a small field.
The real shocker was Gosger. Finishing second at 15-1 odds from the widest post proved that Brendan Walsh had the horse ready. The $2 Exacta (2-9) returned a healthy $33.80.
Actionable Insights for Future Preakness Betting
You've got to look past the "winningest post" charts. Here’s what we learned from the 150th Preakness that you can use next year:
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- Field Size is King: In a field under 10 horses, don't overvalue the outside post penalty. A fast horse can overcome it in three jumps.
- The "New Shooter" Myth: Only three horses from the Derby ran in 2025. While Journalism (a Derby alum) won, the "new shooters" like Gosger and River Thames stayed competitive. Don't automatically discount horses that skipped the Derby.
- Watch the Start: If a horse in Post 1 or 2 misses the break even by a half-second, their race is usually over. Journalism was the exception, not the rule.
The 2025 race was the final hurrah for the old Pimlico. As we look toward 2026 and a new era for the Maryland Jockey Club, the lessons of the Preakness 2025 post position draw remain: the rail is a gift if you're fast enough to hold it, and a prison if you aren't.
Next time you're looking at the PPs, check the horse's "gate speed" rating. A horse with high gate speed from an inside post is the closest thing to a "lock" you'll find in this sport. Check the Equibase Speed Figures for the first quarter-mile to identify these gate-poppers before you place your next bet.