So, you’re staring at a box score from a random Thursday night in August. Some third-round rookie wideout just torched a secondary of future insurance salesmen for 110 yards and two scores. Your finger is hovering over the "add" button in your fantasy league. Your brain is telling you that you’ve found the next Puka Nacua.
Honestly? Take a breath.
When it comes to pre season stats nfl enthusiasts obsess over, there is a massive gulf between "production" and "predictive value." Most of what you see on the screen during August is a carefully orchestrated lie. But if you know where the real signal is buried under all that noise, you can actually predict the future before the September kickoff.
The Myth of the Preseason Record
Let’s get this out of the way immediately: winning games in August means almost nothing for January. The 2008 Detroit Lions went 4-0 in the preseason. They famously went 0-16 in the regular season. Conversely, the 1982 Washington Redskins went 0-4 in the preseason and ended the year hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
If you look at recent data, like the 2025 preseason standings, you'll see the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns sitting at 3-0. Does that mean Daniel Jones (or whoever is taking snaps) is suddenly a lock for the Pro Bowl? No. Preseason wins are often a reflection of which team has the deepest roster of "fringe" players—guys fighting for the 52nd and 53rd spots—rather than the quality of the actual starters.
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In 2024, passing yardage continued a five-year decline in the early weeks of the season. Why? Because starters aren't playing. They aren't building chemistry. When you see a team like the Baltimore Ravens or Miami Dolphins putting up huge numbers in August, you’re usually watching a backup quarterback like Tyler Huntley or Zach Wilson feast on vanilla defensive schemes.
Which Pre Season Stats NFL Scouts Actually Value
If the final score is fake news, what should you actually track? The answer is "stickiness." Analysts at places like SumerSports have found that certain metrics correlate much more strongly with regular-season success than raw yardage.
Target Share and Route Participation
This is the holy grail for receivers. If a rookie like Tyler Warren or Isaac TeSlaa is on the field for 80% of the first-team snaps and earning a 25% target share, that matters. It doesn't matter if they catch the ball for 5 yards or 50. The fact that the quarterback is looking their way is the "sticky" stat.
In the 2025 preseason, we saw this with the Colts. They ran a screen for Tyler Warren on the second play of the game. That’s a "designed" look. When coaches script plays for a specific guy in August, they are telling you exactly how they plan to use him in September.
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Sack Avoidance and EPA
For quarterbacks, raw passing yards are a trap. Look at Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback and sack avoidance. Sacks are widely considered a "quarterback stat." If a guy like Shedeur Sanders is spinning out of pressure and avoiding negative plays in his first few NFL drives, that translated much better than a lucky 60-yard bomb against a blown coverage.
Trench Wins
Watch the offensive line. In 2025, Grey Zabel of the Seahawks looked like a plug-and-play starter because his "anchor" held up against veteran bull rushes. You won't find "pancake blocks" in a standard box score, but a clean pocket for the first team is a far better indicator of a 10-win season than a fourth-quarter comeback led by a guy who will be cut on Monday.
The "Starters vs. Starters" Rule
If you want to use pre season stats nfl data for betting or fantasy, you have to throw away the second half of every game. Period.
Charley Casserly, the former NFL GM, always argued that you should only evaluate a team based on how their starters performed against the opponent's starters. In 1982, those 0-4 Redskins were actually winning or tied in every game at the moment their starters left the field.
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If your favorite team’s first-team offense goes three-and-out three times and then the backups "save" the game, that team is in trouble. Conversely, if Josh Allen leads one 75-yard touchdown drive and then spends the rest of the night eating seeds on the sideline, the Bills are exactly where they need to be.
Rookies: The Eye Test vs. The Stat Line
Rookies are the biggest trap in the preseason. We saw it in 2024 with Caleb Williams—the motion rates (47.9% of dropbacks) told a bigger story than his completion percentage.
In 2025, the grades for rookies like Cam Ward or Ashton Jeanty weren't just about the box score. Ward went 2-for-7 in a game against the Falcons, which looks terrible on paper. But three of those were drops by veteran receivers, and one was an unblocked defender. If you just looked at the pre season stats nfl apps, you’d think he struggled. If you watched the tape, you saw a No. 1 overall pick making elite-level throws into tight windows.
Practical Steps for Evaluating Preseason Data
Don't let the "August hype" drain your bank account or ruin your fantasy draft. Here is how to actually process this info:
- Ignore Total Yardage: It's almost entirely a function of volume and quality of competition (or lack thereof).
- Follow the "First Team" Only: If a player isn't playing with the ones by the second preseason game, they aren't a factor for your fantasy team in Week 1.
- Watch the New Kickoff Rule: With the 2024/2025 rule changes, special teams stats actually matter now. Field position is starting closer to the 30-yard line. Teams with elite returners or creative kickoff specialists (like the Lions) are gaining a hidden edge in "Expected Points."
- Track "Designed" Touches: Use tools like "Opportunity Score" to see who is getting the ball in the Red Zone. A 2-yard touchdown run where the RB followed a perfect lead block is more predictive than a 40-yard run where three defenders slipped on the turf.
- Listen to the Penalties: A rookie offensive lineman with five penalties in two games (like Anthony Belton in 2025) is a liability that will get a quarterback killed in the regular season, regardless of how "strong" he looks in run blocking.
The preseason isn't a "preview" of the regular season; it’s a laboratory. Stop looking at who won the game and start looking at who is winning the individual experiments. If you can separate the flashes of talent from the systemic successes, you'll be miles ahead of the people just looking at the box score.