Medford is growing. Or is it?
If you listen to the folks down at the Common Block Brewing Company on a Friday night, you’ll hear two totally different stories. One guy will tell you the city is exploding, citing the nightmare traffic on Highway 62. Another will swear the "big city" exodus is over and people are actually packing up for cheaper pastures.
Honestly, they’re both kinda right.
The population in Medford Oregon hit a major milestone recently, crossing the 90,000 mark according to local estimates. But the official numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau and Portland State University (PSU) tell a more nuanced, slightly "tug-of-war" style story. As of July 2025, PSU’s Population Research Center certified Medford’s population at 89,946.
That’s a jump of about 1,208 people in just one year. For a city that was hovering in the mid-80s just a few years ago, that 1.3% annual growth rate is actually pretty significant—especially when you consider that the rest of Oregon has been basically flatlining.
The Reality of the Numbers
Most people think population growth is just about people moving in. It’s not. It’s a math problem involving "natural increase" (births vs. deaths) and "net migration" (people moving in vs. out).
In Medford, the "natural" part of that equation is actually working against the total. Like much of the Rogue Valley, Medford has an older demographic. Retirees love it here. The weather is better than Portland, and you aren’t buried in snow like in Bend. But an older population means more deaths than births.
So, why is the population in Medford Oregon still going up?
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Migration. Plain and simple.
People are fleeing the high costs of the Willamette Valley and the chaos of larger California metros. Even with interest rates being what they are, Medford looks like a bargain to someone coming from San Francisco or Seattle.
Who is actually moving here?
- The "Exodus" Crowd: Remote workers who realized they can earn a Portland salary while living near the Table Rocks.
- Retirees: Attracted by the medical hub that is Asante Rogue Regional Medical Center.
- Young Families: Looking for the "15-minute city" vibe where you can actually get to a park without a 45-minute commute.
Why the Growth Feels "Different" Right Now
If you’ve tried to rent an apartment near North Medford High recently, you know the "90,000 people" stat feels like a lowball. The housing market is tight. Like, 1% vacancy rate tight.
When the population in Medford Oregon grows by 1.3%, but the housing stock only grows by 0.5%, you get what we have now: soaring prices. The median home value has hovered around $387,000 to $431,500 lately. That might sound cheap to a Californian, but for a local household bringing in the median income of about $70,497, it’s a stretch.
The city is trying to catch up. You see it in the Urban Growth Boundary expansions and the "Missing Middle" housing projects popping up. There are nearly 1,000 new apartment units in various stages of development. But here’s the kicker: even with all that building, we’re still playing catch-up for the people who arrived in 2021.
The "Medical Hub" Factor
You can’t talk about Medford’s people without talking about healthcare. Medford isn’t just a town; it’s the "Regional Medical Center" for a massive area. We’re talking about a market area of nearly 450,000 people across Southern Oregon and Northern California.
This draws a specific kind of resident. We have a higher-than-average percentage of healthcare workers and, conversely, a massive population of seniors who moved here specifically to be near specialists.
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- Age 65+: About 19.1% of the population.
- Under 18: Roughly 22.7%.
This creates a bit of a "barbell" demographic. You have a lot of kids and a lot of seniors, with the "working age" middle section feeling the squeeze of providing services for both.
Is Medford Still "Affordable"?
Sorta. It depends on your frame of reference.
If you’re comparing the population in Medford Oregon to the national average, the cost of living is about 8% higher. But compared to the rest of Oregon? We’re actually about 21% cheaper than the state average.
The primary drivers of the cost are:
- Housing: By far the biggest weight on the scale.
- Transportation: You basically have to own a car here. The RVTD bus system is okay, but this isn’t a "walkable" paradise for most.
- Food: Prices at the grocery store have ticked up about 7.5% in the last year.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Future
There's this myth that Medford is going to become "Little Portland."
It’s not. The growth patterns are different. While Portland has seen people leaving the city core, Medford is seeing a "densification." People are moving into the city limits because the surrounding areas—like Phoenix and Talent—are still recovering from the 2020 Almeda Fire.
The fire changed everything. It wiped out thousands of low-income housing units, forcing people into Medford. This created an artificial spike in the Medford population that hasn't really settled down yet.
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Actionable Insights for Residents and Newcomers
If you're looking at these numbers and trying to figure out what they mean for your life, here’s the ground truth.
For Homebuyers: Don't wait for a "crash" that likely isn't coming. With the net migration staying positive and housing starts lagging, the demand is baked in. If you see something you can afford in East Medford or the newer West Medford developments, jump on it.
For Business Owners: The demographic shift toward retirees means "service" is the name of the game. Anything related to home maintenance, mobile healthcare, or high-end leisure is booming. The leisure and hospitality sector saw wage gains of 9% recently because the demand is so high.
For Renters: Look toward the "Missing Middle" developments. The city is incentivizing duplexes and cottage clusters. These are often managed by smaller landlords and can be slightly more negotiable than the big corporate apartment complexes near the mall.
Stay Informed on Zoning: Watch the Medford City Council meetings regarding the Urban Growth Boundary. Where the city expands is where the next "boom" in population will be centered. Areas toward the Foothills are the current focus.
The population in Medford Oregon isn't just a number on a spreadsheet. It's the sound of hammers in the North, the line at the South Medford Walmart, and the changing face of the Rogue Valley. We’re moving toward a 100,000-person city faster than most people realize.
Check the local building permit maps on the City of Medford's official website. It’s the best way to see exactly where the next 1,000 neighbors are going to be living before the moving trucks even arrive. Focus on the Southeast area and the Liberty Park renovations for the most immediate shifts.