Florida politics is basically a contact sport, and right now, the field is getting crowded. If you’ve been looking at the polls for florida special elections lately, you’ve probably noticed they aren’t just about who’s up or down by two points. They’re a messy, fascinating look into how the state is shifting as we crawl toward the 2026 midterms.
Florida is no longer the "swing state" it was a decade ago, but these special elections—often triggered by resignations or appointments to national roles—are where the real drama happens. You’ve got a massive U.S. Senate special election on the horizon because Marco Rubio moved over to the State Department, and a handful of local legislative races that act like a canary in the coal mine for both parties.
Why the Marco Rubio Vacancy is the Big One
The heavy hitter is the 2026 U.S. Senate special election. Honestly, this is the race everyone is watching. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Ashley Moody to fill the seat temporarily, but she has to defend it in November 2026 to keep it for the rest of the term.
Early data from the University of North Florida (UNF) and the Tyson Group gives us a glimpse into the headspace of Florida voters. Back in October 2025, UNF had Moody sitting at about 49% against a generic Democrat at 38%. That 11-point gap sounds like a blowout, but specialized special election polling often tightens as the "undecideds" (usually around 10-13% in these early samples) start paying attention to the actual candidates on the ballot.
Jennifer Jenkins, a former school board member who’s gained a lot of traction on the Democratic side, is currently trailing Moody by similar margins in most head-to-head surveys. But here is the thing: special elections are notorious for low turnout. If one side is more "fired up," that 10-point lead in a poll of "registered voters" can evaporate on Election Day when only "likely voters" actually show up.
The Byron Donalds Factor
While we are talking about polls, we have to look at the Governor's race, even though it's technically a general, because the candidates are currently duking it out in what feels like a perpetual special primary season. Congressman Byron Donalds is currently the frontrunner in several Republican primary polls, leading folks like Jay Collins and Paul Renner.
A Mason-Dixon survey from just a few days ago has Donalds at 37%. His secret sauce? The "Trump Bump." When voters are told he has the endorsement of Donald Trump, his support in the polls jumps significantly—sometimes as high as 68% among aware voters. In Florida, that endorsement is basically gold.
Real Numbers from Recent Special Elections
People often ignore the "small" races, but they tell the real story. Take the special election for Florida's 6th Congressional District in early 2025. Republican Randy Fine won that seat with about 56% of the vote.
On the surface, it’s a standard GOP hold. But if you dig into the polling compared to the actual results, you see a trend. Polls from St. Pete Polls had Fine leading by only 4 points (48% to 44%) just days before the election. He ended up winning by nearly 14 points.
This happens a lot in Florida special elections. The polls often underestimate Republican turnout in rural and suburban counties like Flagler and Marion. In that specific race, Josh Weil (the Democrat) actually outraised Fine by a massive margin—over $15 million compared to Fine’s $1 million—but money didn't translate into a win. It’s a classic Florida lesson: cash is great, but voter registration leads are better.
What the "Generic Ballot" is Telling Us
If you want to know how the state feels as a whole, look at the Florida Chamber of Commerce polls. Their "generic ballot" questions—where they ask "would you vote for a Republican or a Democrat?" without naming names—consistently show a 10-point advantage for Republicans.
👉 See also: Michelle Bishop Ring Video: What Most People Get Wrong
- Republican Advantage: ~50%
- Democratic Advantage: ~40%
- Undecided: ~10%
This 10-point spread has remained remarkably steady since the 2024 cycle. Why? Because Republicans now have a registration lead of over 1.2 million active voters in Florida. You can't poll your way out of that kind of math. Every single one of Florida's 67 counties has seen an increase in Republican registration share since 2022.
The Issue Polls: Property Insurance vs. Taxes
Polls for florida special elections aren't just about candidates; they are about what’s driving people to the booths. Right now, there is a massive disconnect between what lawmakers are doing and what voters want.
A Mason-Dixon poll from January 16, 2026, found that 63% of Floridians want the state to prioritize property insurance relief. Only 32% care more about property tax cuts. This is huge. If a candidate in a special election focuses solely on "lower taxes" while everyone's homeowners insurance is doubling, they might find their polling numbers softening.
Even Republican voters are split here, with 58% saying insurance is the bigger headache. If you’re looking at a special election in a place like Volusia or Pinellas, the insurance crisis is the "X-factor" that could actually make a race competitive.
How to Read These Polls Without Getting Fooled
Don't just look at the top-line number. If a poll says "Candidate A +5," look at the sample.
- Registered vs. Likely Voters: Special elections have abysmal turnout. A poll of "Registered Voters" is almost useless. You want "Likely Voters."
- The "NPAs": No Party Affiliation voters are the largest growing group in Florida. If a poll shows them breaking 60/40 for one side, pay attention.
- The Geography: If a poll for a statewide special election doesn't oversample the I-4 corridor (Tampa to Orlando), it’s probably wrong. That’s where Florida elections are won or lost.
Actionable Next Steps for Florida Voters
If you are following these races and want to ensure your voice actually matches the data, here is what you need to do:
- Check your registration status: Florida has been aggressive about cleaning voter rolls. If you haven't voted in a couple of cycles, you might be marked "inactive." Visit the Florida Division of Elections website to confirm you're good to go.
- Note the 2026 Special Election dates: The special election for the U.S. Senate and several state legislative seats is set for November 3, 2026.
- Request your Mail-In Ballot early: Under current Florida law, mail-in ballot requests expire after every general election cycle. If you haven't renewed your request since November 2024, you won't get a ballot for the 2026 specials.
- Watch the I-4 Corridor: Keep an eye on local polling coming out of the University of Central Florida (UCF) or USF. These tend to be more "boots on the ground" than national firms.
Polls for florida special elections are ultimately just a snapshot of a very loud, very crowded room. They tell us Moody has a head start and that insurance is the issue of the year, but in a state where a few thousand votes can change everything, the only poll that matters is the one that happens at the precinct.