Public opinion is a fickle beast, especially in an era where political figures aren't just leaders but brands. If you've been following the news lately, you know the name Charlie Kirk carries a massive amount of weight—and a lot of baggage. But when you strip away the social media shouting matches, what do the actual polls about Charlie Kirk tell us? It turns out that tracking the favorability of the Turning Point USA founder is like trying to map a lightning storm.
Things changed forever on September 10, 2025. The assassination of Charlie Kirk during a speaking engagement at Utah Valley University didn't just end a career; it sent a massive shockwave through the American polling landscape. Before that day, Kirk was a polarizing but effective youth mobilizer. Afterward, he became a martyr to some and a symbol of a "political crisis" to others. Recent data from Quinnipiac and AP-NORC shows a nation deeply rattled by the violence, with Kirk’s name now forever tied to the conversation about the survival of American democracy.
The Post-September Shift in Public Perception
Honestly, the numbers are pretty staggering. A Quinnipiac University national poll released in late September 2025 found that 79% of registered voters believe the United States is in a "political crisis." That's a huge number. You don't usually see Democrats, Republicans, and Independents agree on much, but nearly everyone—93% of Democrats and 60% of Republicans—agrees that the temperature has reached a boiling point.
When it comes to Charlie Kirk specifically, his favorability ratings have always been a "love him or hate him" affair. Before the tragedy, Kirk was credited with moving the needle for young voters in swing states like Wisconsin. Strategists like Bill McCoshen noted that TPUSA had "more boots on the ground" than any other group. But the polls conducted after the shooting reveal a dark undercurrent.
A CloudResearch survey taken within 24 hours of his death found that while most Americans felt sympathy, about 12% of respondents actually said the murder was "justified." That number jumped to 22% among those under 30. It’s a chilling statistic that shows just how deep the partisan divide really goes.
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Why the "Youth Vote" Polls Are Changing
For years, the narrative was that young people were a lock for the Democratic party. Kirk spent his career trying to break that lock. Data from Marquette University Law School shows that in 2024, Trump’s share of the vote in wards surrounding college campuses improved by significantly more than the state average. In some cases, like at UW-La Crosse, the GOP margin improved by 9%.
But looking toward the 2026 midterms, the polls about Charlie Kirk's legacy suggest a new kind of isolation. Young men, in particular, reported feeling "attacked" or "isolated" by modern liberal rhetoric. This sense of alienation is what Kirk tapped into. However, following his death, AP-NORC found a "sharp drop" in Republican optimism. Younger Republicans (under 45) saw a 30-percentage-point spike in the belief that the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Decoding the Favorability Gap
If you look at the raw approval numbers from late 2025, you see a massive chasm.
- Republicans: Roughly 86% approved of Kirk’s work and message.
- Democrats: Approval sat at a measly 3% to 5%.
- Independents: Only about 27% to 30% viewed him favorably.
The "strongly disapprove" numbers are where things get intense. Nearly 49% of the general electorate disapproved "strongly" of Kirk. It’s rare to see a non-elected figure command that much negative attention. Even posthumously, he remains a lightning rod for debate.
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The Texas Controversy and Free Speech
Polls don't just happen in a vacuum; they reflect real-world conflict. In January 2026, the Texas American Federation of Teachers filed a lawsuit because the state was investigating hundreds of complaints against teachers who allegedly "celebrated" Kirk's death on social media.
An RMG Research poll found that 80% of GOP voters think people should be fired for mocking the assassination online. Only 27% of Democrats agree. This isn't just a poll about a person anymore; it’s a poll about what we’re allowed to say and what happens when we say it.
What These Polls Mean for 2026
The 2026 midterms are the next big test. Without Kirk’s personal energy at the helm of Turning Point, can the GOP maintain those campus gains? Some Democrats, like Evelyn Schmidt of the College Democrats of Wisconsin, think the 2024 shift was a fluke. She argues that while GOP margins improved, Democrats still added "youth votes to the column."
On the other side, conservative strategists are leaning into the "martyr" narrative. They see the 84% support for JD Vance in recent TPUSA straw polls as a sign that the movement Kirk built is more unified than ever. They’re betting that the "gnawing feeling" of political violence will drive their base to the polls in record numbers.
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Key Takeaways from Recent Surveys
- Violence is the top concern. 71% of voters now say politically motivated violence is a "very serious problem."
- Trust is cratering. 53% of voters think the American system of democracy is simply not working.
- The legacy is mixed. While Kirk is a hero to the 94% of conservatives who attend AmFest, he remains a symbol of "harmful influence" to nearly a third of young Democrats.
If you’re trying to make sense of the polls about Charlie Kirk, stop looking for a consensus. There isn't one. Instead, look at the trend lines. We are seeing a shift from "policy disagreements" to "existential dread." People aren't just polling on whether they like his ideas; they're polling on whether they think the country can survive the division he helped define.
Moving forward, keep a close eye on "wrong direction" polling among GOP women and young men. These were the groups Kirk was most successful with, and their current "sour" mood could dictate who wins the House and Senate in 2026. The data suggests that while the man is gone, the "Kirk effect" on the electoral map is very much alive.
To get a clearer picture of how this impacts your local area, you should check the 2026 primary turnout data in your specific congressional district. Comparing current voter registration shifts among 18-to-25-year-olds against the 2024 baseline will tell you if the Turning Point momentum is actually holding steady without its founder.