Iran is vibrating right now. Honestly, if you’re looking at the headlines and seeing a "calm" in Tehran, you’re missing the actual story. It’s Saturday, January 17, 2026, and the atmosphere in the Islamic Republic is less about peace and more about a held breath before a scream.
Just hours ago, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei took to state TV and didn't pull any punches. He called U.S. President Donald Trump a "criminal." Why? Because of Trump’s vocal support for the massive wave of protests that have ripped through all 31 provinces since late December. Khamenei is claiming that the U.S. and Israel are the "hidden hands" behind the thousands of deaths reported during this latest uprising.
But here’s the thing most people get wrong: this isn't just another 2022. It’s deeper.
The Economic Gut-Punch Fueling the Fire
While the world watches the street clashes, the real political news of iran today is written in the currency exchange rates. On December 28, the Iranian rial hit a staggering low of 1,432,000 to one U.S. dollar. Think about that for a second. Your life savings, basically halved in value while you sleep.
The sparks for this fire weren't just about civil liberties this time; they were about bread, eggs, and the total collapse of the banking system. In October 2025, Bank Ayandeh—a massive, regime-affiliated institution—simply dissolved after losing $5 billion. The government tried to patch it by printing money, which is like trying to put out a grease fire with a cup of water. It just made the inflation explode.
People aren't just angry; they're desperate.
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Why the Internet Blackout Matters More This Time
Since January 9, the regime has kept the country under a digital shroud. A total telecommunications blackout.
Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani says they won’t turn it back on until after the 40-day mourning period for the protesters killed. That puts us around mid-February. Why the wait? Because in Iranian culture, the 40th day (Arba'een) is when the biggest crowds gather. The regime is terrified that the mourning will turn into a second, more organized wave of revolution.
NetBlocks estimates this shutdown is costing the Iranian economy $1.5 million every hour. They are literally burning their own house down to stop the people from talking to each other.
A President Caught in the Middle?
Masoud Pezeshkian, the reformist president who took office in 2024, is in a bit of a nightmare scenario. On Friday, he was on the phone with Vladimir Putin. The official line? They want to "normalize" the situation. But inside Iran, Pezeshkian’s "reformist" tag is feeling thinner by the day.
When you have the Judiciary Chief, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, publicly demanding that the "repression must be quick" to be effective, there isn't much room for moderate reform. The rhetoric from the top has shifted from "let’s talk" to "break their backs."
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The "Sedition" Narrative
Khamenei isn't just calling protesters names anymore. He’s labeling them "foot soldiers" of the West. This is a specific legal and political tactic. By framing a hungry merchant in the Tehran bazaar as a CIA asset, the state justifies using lethal force.
Human rights groups are reporting casualty numbers that are hard to wrap your head around. Some estimates put the death toll over 2,600 since late December. The government, meanwhile, blames "terrorist elements" for shooting both civilians and security forces.
The Trump Factor and Regional Chaos
The international side of the political news of iran today feels like a powder keg. Trump has been tweeting—well, whatever he uses now—telling Iranians that "help is on the way." He even claimed Iran "canceled the hanging of 800 people" because of him.
Whether that’s true or not is almost secondary to the effect it has inside the country. It gives the hardliners in the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard) the perfect excuse to crack down harder. They see any U.S. encouragement as an act of war.
Meanwhile, Iran’s "Axis of Resistance" is looking a little shaky:
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- Syria: Bashar al-Assad is gone, fleeing in 2024. That’s a huge hole in Iran's regional strategy.
- Venezuela: The U.S. just captured Nicolás Maduro this month. Iran lost its biggest "sanction-busting" partner in the West.
- Iraq: There are reports of Iraqi militias being bussed into Iran to help suppress the protests because the local Iranian security forces are getting "burnt out."
What Happens Tomorrow?
The situation is incredibly volatile. If you're following this, keep your eyes on Zahedan. Even with the siege and the heavy IRGC presence, the people there took to the streets again yesterday. They were chanting "Khamenei is a murderer." That kind of defiance, in the face of what’s happening, shows the regime's "securitization" isn't working as well as they'd hoped.
Actionable Insights for Following the Situation:
- Monitor the Rial: Don't just watch the protests; watch the black market exchange rate. If it crosses 1.5 million, expect another surge in street activity from the middle class.
- Watch February 17: This marks the end of the 40-day mourning period. This is the most likely date for a massive national escalation.
- Track Capital Flight: Reports show Iranian officials have moved nearly $1.5 billion out of the country in the last 48 hours. When the elites start sending money to Dubai, they’re worried the ship is sinking.
- Verify via Human Rights Channels: Since the internet is down, trust organizations like Amnesty or the NCRI who have "Resistance Units" on the ground. State media is currently a pure propaganda machine.
The "calm" you see in some reports is just the regime holding its breath. The underlying issues—the 60% inflation, the banking collapse, and the demand for basic dignity—haven't gone anywhere. They’re just waiting for the next spark.
Next Steps for You
- Audit your news sources: Cross-reference state-run IRNA reports with independent monitors like NetBlocks to see what is being censored in real-time.
- Watch for diplomatic shifts: Keep an eye on the Chinese and Russian responses over the next 48 hours; their level of support often dictates how much force the IRGC feels comfortable using.