The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is where things usually get weird. Honestly, it’s the best weekend of the year for football fans. We’re down to the final eight, and today, Saturday, January 17, 2026, the stakes are finally catching up to the hype. If you’ve been looking at the point spreads on today's NFL games, you’ve probably noticed something a bit off.
Usually, the No. 1 seeds are massive favorites at home. But that isn't exactly the case in the AFC right now. The Denver Broncos are sitting as slim 1.5-point favorites against the Buffalo Bills. Yes, you read that right. A 1.5-point spread for a top seed. It’s basically a toss-up.
Then you look over at the NFC side of things, and the Seattle Seahawks are laying a full touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers. It’s a tale of two very different betting markets. One game feels like a bar fight in a phone booth, and the other looks like a coronation.
The Denver-Buffalo Conundrum: A 1.5-Point Gap
Let's talk about the Broncos first. Sean Payton has this team humming. They’ve had 13 days to rest up, while the Bills are coming in on a short five-day week after grinding out a Wild Card win. Normally, that rest advantage is worth a field goal on its own. So why is the spread so tight?
Basically, the betting public still doesn't fully trust Bo Nix in a legacy-defining moment, even though he's been lights out. Josh Allen is the "Boogeyman" of the playoffs. Even when the Bills are tired or banged up, people remember what he can do when the game is on the line.
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- Denver Broncos (-1.5): They are 17-3 straight-up at home under Payton when they have more than nine days of rest. That’s a staggering stat.
- Buffalo Bills (+1.5): Josh Allen is 1-4 on the road in the postseason. That’s the stat that should keep Bills Mafia up at night.
If you’re looking at this line, you’ve gotta wonder if the "rest vs. rust" debate is baked into the number. Denver’s defense has been top-tier all season, but Buffalo’s rushing attack with James Cook has found a new gear lately. If the Bills can run the ball and keep Nix off the field, that 1.5 points might as well not exist.
Seattle’s Massive 7-Point Cushion
Down in the Pacific Northwest, things feel a lot more lopsided. The Seahawks are -7 favorites over the 49ers.
Seven points in a divisional matchup between division rivals? That’s heavy.
But look, Seattle has been a juggernaut. Mike Macdonald’s defense is currently the best in the league at preventing explosive plays. They’ve already beaten San Francisco recently, and playing at Lumen Field in January is a nightmare for any visiting quarterback. Sam Darnold has found a home in Seattle, and with Jaxon Smith-Njigba leading the league in receiving yards, they’ve got weapons that are just hard to match.
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The 49ers are the gritty No. 6 seed that just won’t die. They took down the Eagles last week as 6-point underdogs. They thrive in this "nobody believes in us" role. But the point spreads on today's NFL games suggest the oddsmakers think the Niners' magic might be running out. Covering seven points in the playoffs is a big ask, but Seattle has been winning by double digits at home all year.
What the Sharps Are Watching
Vegas doesn't set these lines for fun. They set them to get equal action on both sides.
When you see a line move from Denver -1 to Denver -2.5 and then back to -1.5, that’s the professional bettors—the "sharps"—clashing with the public. Most regular fans are hammering the Bills because of the "Josh Allen factor." The pros? They’re likely looking at that 13-day rest advantage for Denver and the thin mountain air.
In the Seattle game, the total is sitting around 44.5. That tells you the books expect a defensive slog. If you think the 49ers can keep it close, you're betting on Christian McCaffrey to have a legendary performance against a defense that knows him better than anyone.
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Breaking Down the Sunday Outlook
While today is the focus, you can't ignore how today's results will shift the lines for tomorrow. The Los Angeles Rams are 3.5-point favorites on the road against the Chicago Bears. That’s another strange one. A road favorite in a playoff game at Soldier Field?
The New England Patriots are -3 against the Houston Texans. It seems like the "home field advantage" is only being given real credit in Seattle. Everywhere else, the books are daring you to take the underdog.
Actionable Insights for Today’s Board
If you're looking at the point spreads on today's NFL games and trying to make sense of the noise, keep these three things in mind:
- Rest is King: History favors the teams coming off the bye. Since the current playoff format was adopted, the No. 1 seeds have a significant winning percentage in this round, even if they don't always cover the spread.
- The "Hook" Matters: That 1.5-point spread in Denver is dangerous. If the game ends on a last-second field goal, that half-point decides everything. Always look for the best price (like -110 or -105) rather than just the number.
- Watch the Weather: It’s mid-January. High winds in Seattle or a slick field in Denver can turn a high-flying offense into a stagnant one. These spreads often drop a half-point right before kickoff if the wind reports look bad.
Check the live lines about 30 minutes before the 4:30 PM ET kickoff for the Denver game. Lines often twitch right when the "inactive" lists are released. If a key offensive lineman is out for Buffalo, that Denver -1.5 might jump to -3 before you can blink.
Get your positions locked in early, but keep an eye on the injury reports for those late-game Seattle starters.