The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is where the "pretenders" finally run into a brick wall. If you survived Wild Card weekend, congratulations, but the math just got a whole lot harder. We are looking at a Sunday slate for January 18, 2026, that has Vegas oddsmakers sweating. Why? Because the lines are tight. Really tight.
Honestly, point spreads for this week's NFL games aren't just about who has the better quarterback anymore. It’s about fatigue, travel, and—in the case of the Denver Broncos—a devastating injury that just reshaped the entire AFC championship outlook. If you haven't heard, Bo Nix is out for the season with an ankle injury sustained during Denver's 33-30 overtime thriller against Buffalo on Saturday. That changes the "vibe" of the betting market instantly.
Why the Patriots Are Only 3-Point Favorites
The New England Patriots are sitting as a -3 favorite against the Houston Texans. On paper, New England at 15-3 should be a much heavier favorite at home. Drake Maye has been playing like a seasoned vet, ranking first in EPA per pass during the regular season. But then you look at the Texans.
C.J. Stroud and that Houston defense just dismantled the Steelers 30-6. Houston’s defense is a nightmare for young quarterbacks. They rank first in EPA allowed per play and they don't even have to blitz to get home. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter are basically living in opposing backfields.
The spread reflects a massive respect for Houston’s pass rush. Most people see the Patriots' record and think this should be a touchdown spread. It's not. Vegas knows that if Maye gets rattled early, the Texans' +150 moneyline starts looking like a steal.
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You’ve also got to consider the "short week" factor. Houston played on Monday, January 12. They are flying to Foxborough with less rest than a New England team that’s been sitting on a bye. Usually, that’s worth an extra point on the spread, but the books are sticking to -3. That tells me the "sharp" money is leaning toward Houston keeping this within a field goal.
The Rams and Bears: A Windy City Toss-Up
Over in the NFC, the Los Angeles Rams are 3.5-point road favorites against the Chicago Bears. This is the game everyone is overthinking.
Chicago is 12-6. They’ve been one of the best stories in the league this year, especially at Soldier Field. Yet, Matthew Stafford and the Rams are coming in as the favorites. The spread opened at -3 and moved to -3.5 at most shops like FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Rams Offense: Stafford is still slinging it, and L.A. has a 61% win probability according to ESPN's analytics.
- Bears Defense: They are 11-6-1 against the spread this year. They cover. It’s what they do.
- The Weather: It's mid-January in Chicago. If the wind kicks up, a 3.5-point spread feels like a mountain.
A lot of bettors are looking at the Rams' experience. But the Bears have won the last five home matchups against Los Angeles. Five. That’s not a fluke; it’s a trend. If you’re looking at point spreads for this week's NFL games and ignoring the home-dog energy in Chicago, you’re probably going to lose your shirt.
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The Saturday Aftermath and the "Nix Effect"
We can't talk about Sunday's spreads without acknowledging what happened on Saturday. The Seattle Seahawks were 7-point favorites over the 49ers. That was the largest spread of the weekend. Seattle took care of business, but the real story was in Denver.
The Broncos beat the Bills, but losing Bo Nix is a catastrophe. Why does this matter for Sunday? Because the winner of the Texans-Patriots game now knows they aren't facing a full-strength Denver team in the AFC Championship.
If New England wins and covers that -3, they become the de facto favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The "market" is reacting to this in real-time. You might see that Patriots line move to -3.5 or -4 by kickoff as fans realize the path to the Super Bowl just got significantly easier for whoever wins in Foxborough.
What the Numbers Are Actually Telling Us
Total points (Over/Under) are often the "secret" to understanding the spread. The Texans-Patriots total is sitting at a lowly 40.5. That is the lowest of the divisional round.
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When the total is that low, every point in the spread is magnified. In a 40-point game, a 3-point spread is huge. In a 54-point game, it’s a rounding error. Vegas is projecting a rock fight. They expect Drake Maye to struggle against that Houston front and C.J. Stroud to deal with the Foxborough elements.
Historically, playoff teams that average over 24 points per game playing in a contest with a total below 41.5 are 15-3 straight up. New England fits that criteria. They score points. Houston prevents them. Something has to give.
Making Sense of the Sunday Lines
If you're looking to place a bet or just want to win your office pool, stop looking at the logos and start looking at the matchups.
- Check the Pressure: Maye is great under pressure (5th in EPA), but Houston is #1 at creating it. If you think the Texans' defensive line dominates, the +3 spread is your best friend.
- Monitor the Chicago Wind: If the gusts stay under 15 mph, the Rams probably cover. If it’s a "Windy City" special, take the Bears and the points.
- The "Hook": That .5 on the Rams -3.5 is a trap. It's designed to make you take the Bears. If you like the Rams, you're better off hunting for a -3 or just playing the moneyline at -200.
Basically, the divisional round is about finding the discrepancy between public perception and cold, hard reality. The public loves the Patriots and the Rams because they have the "names." The reality is that Houston and Chicago are statistically two of the hardest teams to blow out in the entire league.
To stay ahead of the movements, keep an eye on the injury reports right up until the 3:00 p.m. ET kickoff for the AFC game. With the Bo Nix news fresh in everyone's minds, the "rest of the bracket" motivation is going to be a major factor in how these teams play. Every team left now sees a wide-open door to San Francisco for Super Bowl 60.
Next Steps for Your Betting Strategy:
Compare the live lines at three different sportsbooks—specifically looking for any shop still offering New England at -2.5 or Chicago at +4. These "stale" lines are where the value lives in the final hours before kickoff. Once you find the best number, cross-reference it with the local weather forecast for Chicago to see if the total starts dropping, which usually favors the underdog.