Todd Pletcher has won basically everything there is to win in horse racing. He’s got the Eclipse Awards—eight of them, to be exact—cluttering up his trophy room. He has the Kentucky Derby wins. He has the Belmont Stakes trophies. But there is a massive, gaping hole in the resume of the most successful trainer of his generation: the Pletcher Breeders' Cup Classic drought is real, and it’s weird.
Horse racing is a game of probability. When you send out as many high-quality starters as Pletcher does, you're supposed to hit the board eventually. Yet, for decades, the $7 million centerpiece of the Breeders' Cup World Championships has acted like a brick wall for the stable.
It isn’t for a lack of trying. He’s sent out legends. He’s saddled favorites. He’s entered longshots. Still, the winner's circle remains elusive. If you look at the stats, they’re actually kind of staggering. Pletcher has won over 15 Breeders’ Cup races in total, but the Classic? It’s his Moby Dick.
The Vino Rosso Breakthrough (and the Asterisk)
Wait. Before we get into the "why," we have to talk about 2019. Honestly, that’s the year everything changed, but it also highlights how difficult this race has been for him.
Vino Rosso gave Todd Pletcher his first—and currently only—win in the Breeders' Cup Classic. It happened at Santa Anita Park. I remember watching it live; the horse just looked different that day. He loomed up on the outside and dominated McKinsey. It was a masterclass in conditioning. Pletcher had skipped the big summer races like the Whitney to focus specifically on the 1¼-mile distance.
It worked.
But here’s the thing: that win ended a winless streak in the Classic that spanned nearly two decades. Before Vino Rosso, Pletcher was 0-for-14. Since Vino Rosso, he’s been back in a bit of a slump in this specific race. You’d think the floodgates would open, but the Classic is a different animal. It’s the most physically demanding ten furlongs in American dirt racing.
What Actually Goes Wrong for the Stable?
Some people say Pletcher’s horses are "over-raced" by the time November rolls around. I don't buy that. He’s a meticulous planner. He’s known for the "Pletcher Pattern," which usually involves a specific number of weeks between starts.
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The real issue might be the competition.
In the Pletcher Breeders' Cup Classic history, he’s running against the best of the best. It’s not just the top three-year-olds; it’s the battle-hardened older horses. It's the Europeans trying dirt for the first time. It's the West Coast speed demons from Baffert’s barn.
Take a look at some of his notable "almosts":
- Quality Road (2010): This was supposed to be the one. He was the heavy favorite at Churchill Downs. Then he got to the gate, refused to load, got scratched, and basically broke the hearts of everyone who bet him.
- Life Is Good (2022): A brilliant, brilliant horse. He went to the lead at Keeneland and looked like he was going to gallop into the sunset. Then Flightline happened. Flightline was a freak of nature, and Life Is Good just couldn't sustain that scorching pace.
- Stay Thirsty (2011): Ran a gutsy race but just got outkicked.
It's usually something. A bad break. A faster horse. A gate mishap. In racing, you need luck to win a maiden race at Finger Lakes, let alone the richest race in the country.
The "May vs. November" Conundrum
Pletcher is the King of May.
He prepares horses for the Kentucky Derby better than almost anyone. His program is designed to get a three-year-old to peak on the first Saturday in May. But the Breeders' Cup Classic is a different physiological test. By November, many horses are tired. The ones that win are the ones that have "bottom"—that deep, industrial-strength stamina that carries them through a long season.
Pletcher’s runners often look incredible in the Jim Dandy or the Travers Stakes in August. But keeping that form through the late autumn is a tall order. He’s often had to decide whether to push a horse through a grueling summer campaign or save them for the fall. Usually, the pressure of the big New York summer meets (Saratoga, specifically) means those horses are running hard when it's 90 degrees out.
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Does He Train for the Distance?
There is a nagging critique among some turf writers that Pletcher-trained horses are better at 1 1/8 miles than the classic 1 1/4 miles. It sounds like a small difference. It's only an extra furlong. But in the Classic, that final eighth of a mile is where dreams go to die.
If you look at his record in the Pegasus World Cup (1 1/8 miles), he’s been dominant. He won it with Life Is Good. He won it with Todd Pletcher-trainee Neptune’s Storm. Wait, scratch that—I’m thinking of the wrong horse. He won it with Arrogate? No, that was Baffert. Pletcher won it with Vino Rosso's stablemates and others like Life is Good.
Actually, let's look at Malathaat. She was a beast. She won the Distaff. Pletcher has always been better in the Distaff (the female version of the Classic) than the Classic itself. He’s won the Distaff multiple times with stars like Ashado and Stopchargingmaria.
Why the discrepancy?
Maybe it’s because the Classic attracts a level of "alpha" speed that his tactical stalkers struggle to put away. His horses are usually "push-button" types. They sit second or third, they pounce, and they hold on. In the Classic, if you pounce too early, a closer like Flightline or Gun Runner will inhale you.
The Modern Era and Bright Future
The narrative is shifting, though. Pletcher’s operation is more diverse than it was ten years ago. He’s using more turf influences. He’s being more selective with where he spots his top-tier talent.
In recent years, he’s had horses like Forte and Tapit Trice. These are horses built for distance. When we talk about the Pletcher Breeders' Cup Classic outlook for the coming years, you have to look at his relationship with owners like Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable. They are buying "Classic" pedigrees—horses sired by Curlin, Tapit, and Gun Runner.
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They aren't just looking for sprinters anymore.
Why We Should Stop Betting Against Him
Betting against a Hall of Fame trainer because of a "trend" is a great way to lose money. Eventually, the law of averages catches up.
People said he couldn't win the Derby. Then he won it with Super Saver. They said he was only a 2-year-old trainer. Then he started winning the Belmont Stakes. The Pletcher Breeders' Cup Classic "curse" is really just a reflection of how incredibly hard it is to win that specific race.
Think about the trainers who have won it multiple times. Baffert. Tiznow's trainer Jay Robbins (who won it twice with one horse). It’s a short list.
Pletcher is a volume shooter. He’s going to keep firing. And with the quality of bloodstock entering his barn every year, the 1-for-20-something stat is going to look a lot different by the time he retires.
Actionable Insights for Racing Fans
If you're looking at a Pletcher horse in the Classic, don't just look at their last race. Look at these three specific things:
- The "Vino Rosso" Pattern: Did the horse skip a major summer Grade 1 to fresh up for the fall? Pletcher is deadly with a "fresh" horse that has two or three months of solid works under its belt.
- The Final Furlong Times: Check the horse's closing fractions in their 1 1/8 mile races. If they are slowing down significantly in the final sixteenth, they will get eaten alive at the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Classic.
- Track Surface Bias: Pletcher horses generally prefer a "fair" track. If the Breeders' Cup host site (like Del Mar or Santa Anita) is playing heavily toward speed, his tactical stalkers might struggle to make up ground.
The Pletcher Breeders' Cup Classic story isn't over. It’s a work in progress. While the media loves to point out the losses, the reality is that just getting a horse to the starting gate of the Classic is a feat most trainers never achieve. He does it every year.
Next Steps for Following the Stable:
Track the "Road to the Breeders' Cup" through the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Awesome Again Stakes. Pletcher typically uses these as his primary "win and you're in" springboards. If his top 3-year-old skips the Travers to run against older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, that’s a massive signal that he thinks he has a Classic winner on his hands. Keep a close eye on his Belmont Park (or Saratoga) work tabs in late September; he often tips his hand with five-furlong bullet works for his Grade 1 contenders.