Look, Week 4 is usually when the "reality check" hits the NFL. We’ve seen three weeks of data. We think we know who’s good. We think we know who’s garbage. But honestly? The betting lines start to look a little too perfect right around now.
Vegas isn't in the business of losing money. They’ve adjusted. When you see the Buffalo Bills sitting as a massive -16.5 favorite against the New Orleans Saints, your brain screams "blowout." And yeah, the Saints have looked rough. But 16.5 points? That’s basically asking for a miracle cover in a league where professional athletes get paid to keep games close.
We’re diving into the meat of the schedule. This is the weekend where we find out if the "underdog road cover" trend is a fluke or a lifestyle.
The Massive Favorites You Should Probably Avoid
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. The Bills are laying more than two touchdowns at home. Highmark Stadium will be rocking, and Josh Allen is, well, Josh Allen. But here’s the thing—Allen is nursing a bit of a nose/facial injury and has been wearing a visor. He ran way less last week. If the Bills get up by 17 in the third quarter, do they keep the pedal down? Doubtful. They’ve got the Patriots on Sunday Night Football next week. This has "backdoor cover" written all over it. I’d lean Saints +16.5 simply because the number is too inflated by public perception.
Then there’s the Detroit Lions. They’re -9.5 or -10 depending on where you shop, hosting the Cleveland Browns. The Browns’ offense is, frankly, painful to watch. But their defense is still elite. They’ve already faced Burrow, Lamar, and Love this year and held their own. If the Lions' pass rush can’t get home against Cleveland’s line, this could be a disgusting 17-10 type of game. Taking the Browns at +9.5 feels gross, but it’s often the right play in picks against the spread week 4.
Why Home Dogs Feel Different This Year
There is some weird energy with home underdogs right now. Take the Kansas City Chiefs. They are actually home underdogs (+2.5) against the Baltimore Ravens. Think about that for a second. Patrick Mahomes. At Arrowhead. Getting points.
Sure, the Ravens’ offense is humming, and Lamar Jackson looks like an MVP candidate again. But the Ravens’ defense has been surprisingly leaky, especially in the fourth quarter. If you give Andy Reid points at home, you’re playing with fire. Most analysts are split here, but the value is almost always on the Chiefs when they aren’t the ones giving the points.
Over in Atlanta, the Falcons are +2.5 against the Commanders. Atlanta just got embarrassed 30-0 by the Panthers (yes, that really happened). Now they’re home dogs to a Commanders team that might be missing Jayden Daniels due to that knee injury. This is a classic "buy low" spot. The Falcons aren't as bad as that shutout suggests.
The Dublin Dynamic and Other Weird Spots
We’ve got a weird one in Ireland. The Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers are heading to Dublin. The line has flipped a few times, settled around Vikings -2.5. Carson Wentz is likely getting the start for Minnesota with J.J. McCarthy sidelined.
The Steelers are such a strange team. They’ve been out-gained in yards per play in almost every game, yet they keep winning because their defense forces turnovers like it’s a hobby. If Aaron Rodgers (now with Pittsburgh) can just manage the game, the Steelers at +2.5 in a neutral-site "home" game feels like the smarter side. Neutral site games are notorious for being low-scoring, sloppy affairs.
Quick Hitting Values for the Weekend
- Eagles at Buccaneers (+3.5): Jalen Hurts is 1-4 in his career against Tampa. Mike Evans is dealing with a hamstring, which hurts the Bucs, but getting more than a field goal at home in this rivalry is enticing.
- Titans at Texans (-7.5): The Titans look completely lost. Cam Ward is a rookie trying to survive behind a line that’s basically a revolving door. Even with a lackluster Texans offense, Tennessee might not score enough to keep this within a touchdown.
- Packers (-6.5) at Cowboys: Green Bay is favored in Dallas. Read that again. The Cowboys' defense has struggled to stop the run, and the Packers are built to exploit exactly that.
Watching the Injury Report Closely
You can't make your picks against the spread week 4 without looking at the training room. In New York, the Giants might have lost Malik Nabers to a serious knee injury. If he's out, that offense has zero explosive playmakers left. The Chargers are laying -6.5 on the road, and even with Joe Alt’s high ankle sprain, they should be able to bully a Giants team that just can't find its rhythm.
Keep an eye on the Raiders/Bears game too. Maxx Crosby and the Raiders defense are usually enough to tilt a game, but if the Raiders' offensive line can't protect whoever is under center, Caleb Williams and the Bears (+1.5) might actually put together two decent halves of football for once.
Actionable Strategy for Your Bets
Stop chasing the "easy" wins. Betting on a -16.5 favorite is rarely a winning long-term strategy because the margin for error is non-existent. One fumbled punt or a garbage-time touchdown by the underdog ruins your afternoon.
Focus on the games where the line has moved significantly from the opener. The Falcons moving from favorites to underdogs after one bad game is a prime example of "recency bias." That’s where the value hides. Look for teams that were "punks" last week but have the talent to bounce back.
🔗 Read more: Best Looking Olympic Athletes: Why Some Faces Rule the Podium (and Your Feed)
Check the weather for the early window games. Wind is picking up in the Northeast, which usually favors the underdogs and the "under." If the total is high (like the Rams/Colts at 49.5) and the wind is blowing 20mph, the "under" and the points become much more attractive.
Finalize your card by looking for consistency. The Vikings have covered at a high rate this year, while the Cowboys have been a nightmare for bettors. Don't bet on a team to change who they are just because you think they're "due" for a win. Trust the tape.
Check the final injury reports 90 minutes before kickoff to ensure no surprise scratches. This is especially vital for the Commanders and Dolphins, who are dealing with key injuries to their primary playmakers. Lock in your values before the public money moves the lines further toward the favorites on Sunday morning.