You’ve heard the jokes about Phoenix being a "dry heat" or basically a giant convection oven, right? Well, if you’re looking at the Phoenix weather next 30 days, throw that summer stereotype out the window. We are in the sweet spot.
Right now, it is stunning.
I’m sitting here looking at the data for mid-January through mid-February 2026, and honestly, this is why people pay the "sunshine tax" to live here. While the rest of the country is digging out of snow or dealing with that gray, bone-chilling slush, Phoenix is currently sitting at a comfortable 47°F at night with daytime highs flirting with the mid-70s.
But don't get too comfortable. There’s a weird shift coming.
The 30-Day Outlook: Sunshine, Then a Splash
If you are planning to be at the Barrett-Jackson Scottsdale Auction (Jan 17–25) or the Arizona Balloon Classic, you basically hit the weather jackpot. Today, Saturday, January 17, we're looking at a high of 76°F. It’s perfect. Tomorrow stays warm at 76°F, though it’ll get a bit cloudier.
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Then things get interesting.
The immediate 10-day forecast shows a very consistent slide. We go from those mid-70s down into the low 70s by next Thursday. By the time we hit the weekend of January 24th, the "dry heat" takes a backseat. We’re looking at a 65% chance of rain on Saturday night and Sunday, January 25th. If you’re heading to the AZ Soup Festival that Sunday, bring an umbrella. It’s gonna be wet.
Most people think Phoenix never rains in the winter. Wrong.
We’re actually in a weak La Niña year. Usually, that means "warm and dry" for the Southwest, but the Climate Prediction Center is noting a transition toward "ENSO-neutral" conditions as we head into February. This means the predictable dry patterns are getting "wobbly." We might see more of these random rain bursts than a typical La Niña year would suggest.
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Why the "Average" Temperature is a Lie
When you Google "Phoenix weather next 30 days," you’ll see averages like 67°F for January and 71°F for February.
Averages are boring. And often misleading.
In reality, Phoenix in late January 2026 is seeing highs well above those marks—hitting 74°F to 76°F regularly. However, the nights are still "desert cold." We're talking 46°F to 52°F. If you’re a tourist and you walk out in a T-shirt at 6 PM because it was 75°F at 2 PM, you’re going to have a bad time.
The temperature drop once the sun dips behind the White Tank Mountains is aggressive. It’s a 25-degree swing in a matter of hours.
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February: The Warm-Up and the Wildcard
As we transition into February, specifically looking toward the WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2–8), the historical data and long-range models from the Old Farmer’s Almanac suggest we’ll see a "sunny, turning warm" stretch.
Expect February highs to climb.
We’ll likely see 70°F become the floor rather than the ceiling. By mid-February, don't be surprised if we see our first 80°F day of the year. It’s that pre-spring burst that makes the desert floor start to turn that weird, neon green for about three weeks before the heat kills it off.
Is the "Big Freeze" Over?
The coldest periods for this winter were predicted for late January, but the current 2026 data shows we are trending warmer than the 30-year average. We aren't seeing those 30°F "protect your citrus trees" nights in the immediate 30-day window.
Still, keep those burlap sacks handy if you have sensitive succulents. All it takes is one clear, dry night for the heat to radiate off the ground and drop us into a frost warning.
Actionable Strategy for the Next 30 Days
- Layer like a pro: The 76°F high/46°F low split is real. A light puffer jacket for the morning, a t-shirt for 1 PM, and that same jacket for the 6 PM outdoor dinner at the Arizona Renaissance Festival is the move.
- Water your plants now: With that rain coming Jan 24–26, you might think you’re off the hook. But the days before that are incredibly dry (humidity as low as 17%). Your desert landscape actually needs a drink before the storm hits to prevent stress.
- Book the outdoor tee times early: If you’re eyeing a round of golf, do it before February 2nd. Once the WM Phoenix Open crowd descends, prices triple and the "pleasant" weather becomes a lot more expensive.
- Check your wipers: Seriously. We go months without rain, and then that Jan 25th storm hits, and everyone realizes their wiper blades have dry-rotted into useless plastic strips.
The Phoenix weather next 30 days is essentially the best version of Arizona. Enjoy the 70s while they last, because, as any local will tell you, the triple digits are always lurking just around the corner in May. Use this window for the hiking trails at Camelback or Piestewa Peak before the "extreme heat" signs go back up.