You’ve probably heard people call Phoenix "the surface of the sun," but honestly, if you’re standing at a bus stop on Central Avenue in mid-January, that’s the last thing on your mind. It’s actually pretty nice right now. Or, well, "nice" if you like wearing a light hoodie in the morning and a T-shirt by noon.
If you're looking at the 10 day weather forecast for phoenix az, things are getting weirdly warm for what’s supposed to be our coldest month. We aren't just talking about a little spike here. We’re looking at a stretch where the "winter" coat stays in the back of the closet.
What’s Actually Happening in the Valley Right Now?
Right now, as of Thursday night, January 15, 2026, it’s a crisp 61°F outside. The sky is clear, and there’s barely a breeze coming from the north at 3 mph. It feels like that perfect desert night where the air is still and the stars actually show up despite the city lights.
But tomorrow? Tomorrow is where the "winter" part starts to feel like a suggestion rather than a rule. We are looking at a high of 78°F on Friday, January 16. That is a full ten degrees above the historical average high of 68°F for this time of year. If you’re visiting from the Midwest, you’re probably already looking for a pool.
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The humidity is sitting around 32% tonight, which is basically "desert dry" for anyone used to the East Coast.
The 10 Day Weather Forecast for Phoenix AZ: Day by Day
The ridge of high pressure sitting over the Southwest isn't budging much. Here is the breakdown of what to expect over the next week and a half:
- Friday, Jan 16: Mostly sunny. High of 78°F, low of 48°F. Expect a light northeast wind.
- Saturday, Jan 17: Still sunny. High of 75°F, low of 47°F.
- Sunday, Jan 18: A few clouds start rolling in. High of 75°F, low of 50°F. There’s a tiny 10% chance of rain, but don't count on it.
- Monday, Jan 19: Mostly cloudy. High of 74°F, low of 50°F.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: Mostly sunny again. High of 75°F, low of 50°F.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: High of 73°F, low of 49°F.
- Thursday, Jan 22: This is the one day to watch. It’ll be mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of light rain at night. High of 71°F, low of 48°F.
- Friday, Jan 23: Sunny. High of 70°F, low of 48°F.
- Saturday, Jan 24: Sunny. High of 72°F, low of 49°F.
Basically, we’re staying in that "sweet spot" of the 70s. It’s the kind of weather that makes people move here, and then complain when it hits 115 in July.
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Why is it so Warm?
Meteorologists are pointing at a strong "blocking ridge" of high pressure. Think of it like a giant invisible bubble sitting over Arizona. It pushes the cold, snowy storms from the Pacific way up north into Canada or the Pacific Northwest, leaving us with stable, warm air.
Yesterday, temperatures at Sky Harbor reached 81°F, which actually tied a record set back in 2000. While we might not hit 80 every day this week, we are consistently hovering about 5 to 8 degrees above the "normal" mark.
There's also the Urban Heat Island effect to consider. As Phoenix has grown, all that concrete and asphalt in places like Scottsdale, Tempe, and Downtown Phoenix absorbs heat all day. When the sun goes down, the concrete stays warm, keeping our overnight lows in the urban core much higher than they used to be thirty years ago. In the outskirts like Queen Creek or Cave Creek, you might still see some frost, but in the city? It's pretty rare lately.
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Rainfall: Will it actually happen?
January is usually one of our wetter months, but "wet" is a relative term here. The average rainfall for the whole month is only about 0.87 inches.
We have a slight chance for rain on Sunday and again next Thursday, but the models show these are weak systems. If you're planning a hike at Camelback or Piestewa Peak, you're likely fine. Just watch for the wind on Saturday, which might kick up to 7 mph—hardly a dust storm, but enough to notice.
Actionable Tips for the Next 10 Days
If you're living through this forecast, here’s how to handle it:
- Layer Like a Pro: A 30-degree swing between the morning low (48°F) and the afternoon high (78°F) is no joke. Wear a jacket you can easily ditch by 11:00 AM.
- UV Protection: The UV index is currently low (around 2 or 3), but because the skies are so clear, you’ll still get more sun than you think. If you’re out golfing or hiking for four hours, wear sunscreen.
- Hydrate: It’s dry. Even when it’s 70 degrees, the low humidity (15% to 24% this weekend) will dehydrate you faster than you realize.
- Check the Dust: While rain chances are low, the lack of moisture means the air quality can get a bit "crunchy." If you have sensitive lungs, keep an eye on the Maricopa County air quality sensors.
The "winter" we're having is basically a long, pleasant spring. Enjoy the mid-70s while they last, because once the ridge breaks, we might actually see a real desert chill return in February.