So, you’re thinking about heading to the Valley of the Sun this month? Honestly, if you're coming from somewhere currently buried under three feet of snow, you've probably got this image of endless shorts-and-t-shirt weather. And while that's kinda true during the day, Phoenix in January is a bit more of a "mood" than people realize. It’s the time of year when locals are simultaneously wearing puffer jackets and flip-flops.
Right now, as of Wednesday, January 14, 2026, the current temperature is sitting at a crisp 56°F. It’s sunny, the wind is barely a whisper at 2 mph from the northeast, and the humidity is a comfortable 38%. But don't let that morning chill fool you. The 15 day forecast for phoenix arizona is shaping up to be a total treat for anyone who hates the "actual" winter happening elsewhere.
The Two-Week Outlook: Sun, More Sun, and Maybe a Sprinkle
Basically, we are looking at a stretch of weather that would make a New Yorker weep with envy. For the next week, we are riding a wave of high pressure that is pushing temperatures well above the historical average.
Today, we are hitting a high of 78°F. Tomorrow, Thursday, January 15, it gets even better—or weirder, depending on your perspective—with a high of 80°F. This isn't just "nice" weather; it's statistically significant. Meteorologists like Ryan Worley from the National Weather Service have pointed out that these mid-to-upper 70s are well above what we’d normally expect for the middle of January.
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The pattern holds steady for a while:
- Friday, Jan 16: Sunny, high of 75°F, low of 50°F.
- Saturday, Jan 17: More sun, topping out at 74°F.
- Monday, Jan 19: Another beautiful day at 75°F.
By the time we get into next Tuesday and Wednesday (Jan 20-21), things get a little "cloudier." We’re looking at some periodic clouds and a tiny 10% chance of rain. It’s nothing that’s going to ruin your hike, but it might finally convince you to keep that light hoodie on.
Why It’s Not Getting Cold Anymore
Have you noticed that you haven't had to scrape frost off a windshield in Phoenix lately? You're not crazy. There’s a legitimate trend here that local experts like Chris Dunn have been tracking. The urban core of Phoenix is effectively losing its meteorological winter.
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It’s a "double whammy" situation. You’ve got the Urban Heat Island effect (all that concrete and asphalt soaking up the sun and puking it back out at night) layered on top of a general warming climate. In fact, in the last decade, Phoenix has only hit the freezing mark twice.
What This Means for Your Trip
If you're looking at the 15 day forecast for phoenix arizona to plan a visit, here is the nuance you won't find on a standard weather app.
The "Phoenix Freeze" is becoming a thing of the past. While outlying areas like Queen Creek or Cave Creek might still see a bit of frost, the city center is staying mild. This is great for your morning coffee on the patio, but it’s actually a bit of a bummer for the local environment. Citrus trees and certain fruit plants need "chill hours" (time below 45°F) to set fruit properly. Without that cold snap, the local harvest can get a bit wonky.
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How to Pack Without Looking Like a Tourist
Since we're looking at highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s, the strategy is simple: layers.
- Morning: You’ll want a jacket. 46°F at 7:00 AM feels surprisingly biting in the desert air.
- Noon: You’ll be down to a t-shirt. The sun here is intense, even in winter.
- Evening: Once that sun drops behind the White Tank Mountains, the temperature plummet is real.
Expect the tail end of this 15-day window—around January 23 and 24—to cool down slightly into the high 60s. Still gorgeous, but you'll definitely feel the difference from that 80°F peak we’re seeing this Thursday.
Actionable Tips for the Next 15 Days
- Hydrate Like It’s July: The humidity is hovering between 19% and 42%. You won't feel yourself sweating, but the desert is literally sucking the moisture out of you. Drink twice as much water as you think you need.
- Hit the Trails Early: With highs in the 70s, this is prime hiking season for Camelback or Piestewa Peak. Just remember the UV index is still around a 3, so sunblock is a must.
- Check the Wind: We had some major gusts earlier in the month, but things have subsided. Currently, winds are light (around 2-6 mph), making it perfect for outdoor dining in Old Town Scottsdale or Downtown.
- Watch the Night Sky: Most of the next two weeks will have "clear" or "mostly clear" nights. It’s a fantastic window for stargazing if you drive just 30 minutes outside the city lights.
Keep an eye on that Friday, January 23 window. Forecast models show a slight bump in precipitation chances to 20%. It’s the only real "threat" to an otherwise perfectly dry and sunny run. Enjoy the warmth while the rest of the country shivers!
Next Steps: Check the hourly wind speeds if you're planning a round of golf this weekend, as even a light 8 mph breeze can mess with your drive on those open Valley courses.