Draft season used to be a one-day event where you sat on your couch and watched a grainy feed of a guy in a suit reading names off a card. Now? It is a year-round obsession. If you have spent any time on Twitter or Reddit lately, you’ve definitely seen those colorful screenshots of draft boards with "A+" grades next to a quarterback from a school you’ve barely heard of. That is the PFF mock draft simulator at work. It has basically turned every football fan into a part-time General Manager, and honestly, it’s ruined our productivity.
The Pro Football Focus draft simulator isn't just a toy. It is a massive data engine. People use it because it feels real. When you’re on the clock and the trade offers start flying in from the Vikings or the Giants, your heart actually picks up a beat. You start thinking, Do I take the blue-chip offensive tackle or trade back for three second-rounders? It’s a rush.
The Math Behind the Madness
What actually makes this thing go? PFF isn't just pulling rankings out of thin air. They have a massive database of player grades based on every single snap of a player's college career. If a wide receiver from the SEC wins 80% of his contested catches, the simulator knows. If a linebacker has a tendency to miss gaps in run support, that is baked into the "value" of that player.
Most simulators just use a static big board. You know the ones—the rankings stay the same for three months. The PFF mock draft simulator is different because it uses a mix of their proprietary Big Board and actual mock draft data from the community. This means if everyone suddenly starts reaching for a specific edge rusher in their mocks, his "Expected Draft Position" (EDP) shifts. It creates a moving target.
It's a feedback loop.
The simulator also factors in team needs. PFF’s analysts—guys like Steve Palazzolo and Sam Monson—constantly update what teams actually need versus what the public thinks they need. If the Jets just signed a massive veteran contract at left tackle, the simulator is less likely to have them grab a tackle in the first round, even if he's the best player available. That nuance is what keeps people coming back for "just one more" mock.
Why We Are All Obsessed With the Grade
Let's be real. We do these mocks for the dopamine hit of the letter grade at the end.
You finish a seven-round haul, and the screen flashes a big, bold green A-. You feel like a genius. You feel like you should be sitting in the war room next to Howie Roseman. But if you get a D+? Suddenly the simulator is "broken" or "biased against my team."
The grading system is based on "Value Gained." This is a concept rooted in analytics. Basically, every pick has an assigned "slot value" based on historical data. If you draft a player at pick 50 who PFF has ranked as the 20th best player, you get a massive boost in your grade. You "beat" the board. Conversely, if you reach for a kicker in the third round, the simulator will absolutely roast you. It doesn't care that your team desperately needs a kicker; it only cares about the opportunity cost of the players you passed up.
The Art of the Trade
This is where the Pro Football Focus draft simulator gets really dangerous for your free time. The trade logic.
Unlike older simulators where you could trade a 7th-round pick for a 1st-round pick because the AI was dumb, PFF uses the Fitzgerald-Spielberger draft value chart (or their own version of it). It is stingy. Getting a team to move up requires a legitimate overpay.
I’ve spent hours—literally hours—trying to navigate a trade-down scenario where I can hoard 2027 draft capital. There is a specific thrill in seeing a "Draft Proposal" pop up on your screen. When the AI offers you a future first-rounder to move back five spots, it feels like winning the lottery. You start calculating the roster spots. You wonder if you can still get your guy at 15 instead of 10. It’s a game of chicken.
Misconceptions and Where It Falls Short
Look, it’s not perfect. No simulator is.
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One of the biggest complaints users have is that the "simulated" picks by other teams can sometimes feel repetitive. If you run the draft ten times, the Bears might take the same player eight times. This happens because the AI is following a strict logic of "Need + Ranking." Real NFL drafts are chaotic. Real GMs have "their guys" who they will reach for regardless of what the consensus big board says.
Also, the simulator can't account for medical red flags or character concerns that haven't gone public yet. In the real world, a player might slide two rounds because of a bad knee. In the PFF mock draft simulator, if he’s talented, he’s going high.
There's also the "Quarterback Problem." In real life, teams get desperate. They trade the farm for a QB who might only be the 20th best player on the board. The simulator is getting better at mimicking this desperation, but it still leans heavily on "objective" value. Sometimes, it’s a bit too rational for the actual NFL.
How to Actually Use This to Understand Your Team
If you want to use the simulator like a pro, stop trying to get an A+. Seriously.
The best way to use it is to test scenarios. What happens if the top three quarterbacks are gone? What does the board look like then? If you trade back, who is actually available in the mid-second round?
I usually run "unrealistic" mocks first just to see the player pool. Then, I try "hard mode" where I don't allow myself to trade. It forces you to make tough decisions. Do you take the high-floor interior lineman or the high-ceiling corner with injury history? These are the conversations happening in real NFL buildings.
Step-by-Step: Winning Your Next Mock
If you’re looking to actually "win" your next session with the Pro Football Focus draft simulator, you need a strategy. Don't just click names.
- Check the "Team Needs" tab first. PFF updates these based on free agency moves. If you haven't checked in a week, the needs might have shifted.
- Toggle the "Draft Sensitivity." There is a slider that determines how much the AI varies from the big board. If you want a "crazy" draft, crank that slider up. It makes the AI more unpredictable, which is actually more realistic.
- Watch the "Big Board" vs. "EDP." EDP is Expected Draft Position. If a player’s rank is 10 but his EDP is 25, you can probably wait. This is how you "game" the system for a better grade, but it's also how real GMs play the board.
- Don't ignore the late rounds. Anyone can pick a star in the first. The real skill is finding the "hidden gems" in round six. Look for players with high PFF grades in specific categories, like "Pass Blocking Efficiency" or "Yards Per Route Run." These stats often translate better than raw athleticism.
- Save your mocks. PFF lets you save and share. It's fun to look back after the real draft and see how close (or hilariously wrong) you were.
The reality is that the PFF mock draft simulator has changed the way we consume football. We aren't just fans anymore; we're amateur scouts. It’s a tool that makes the long, boring months between the Super Bowl and September a lot more bearable. Just don't blame me when you're three hours deep into a 32-team control mock and realize you forgot to eat lunch.
Immediate Next Steps for Fans
To get the most out of your next session, go into the settings and adjust the "Randomness" factor to at least 50%. This prevents the same three players from going in the top three every time. Also, try focusing on a single position group for an entire draft—like only drafting defensive players—to see how the depth of the class holds up in the later rounds. This gives you a much better feel for the "strength" of the year's talent pool than just chasing a high grade.