You know that feeling when you're watching the NFL Draft and a pick comes in that makes the entire internet scream "Wait, what?" That is usually the moment Peter Schrager is smiling somewhere. Most draft pundits spend their months watching tape, grinding over PFF grades, and arguing about arm length or hand size. Schrager? He’s on the phone.
Honestly, if you are looking for a "scouting report" in a Peter Schrager mock draft, you’re looking at the wrong thing. He isn't trying to tell you who the best player is. He's trying to tell you what the GMs are actually going to do. It’s a subtle distinction, but it’s the reason his mock drafts usually blow everyone else's out of the water when it comes to sheer accuracy.
The "Intel" Factor vs. The Tape
Most people treat mock drafts like a big board—a ranking of talent. But the NFL doesn't work that way. Teams reach. They make "weird" picks based on culture, medicals, or a specific coach’s obsession.
Schrager is famously "plugged in." We're talking about a guy who has been seen grabbing coffee with Sean McVay or texting with GMs like Jason Licht. When he drops a mock, he usually prefaces it by saying it's based on "what I'm hearing."
Take his 2025 mock for example. While everyone was penciling in defensive tackles to the Jaguars, Schrager went rogue. He mocked Ashton Jeanty, the Boise State superstar, to Jacksonville at number five. It felt like a massive reach to the "draft twitter" crowd. But that’s the point. Schrager doesn't care if a pick is "smart" in a vacuum; he cares if it’s happening.
Why the Jets Pick Always Matters
If you want to see the Schrager effect in real-time, look at his track record with the New York Jets. It’s actually kind of spooky.
- 2019: Quinnen Williams
- 2020: Mekhi Becton
- 2021: Zach Wilson
- 2022: Sauce Gardner (and Garrett Wilson)
- 2023: Lukas Van Ness (He predicted an EDGE, and even though Van Ness went to Green Bay right before the Jets, he was the only one who saw that position coming for New York).
When Schrager puts a name next to the Jets, you basically shouldn't even bother looking at other mocks for that slot. In his most recent 2025 projections, he had them taking Tyler Warren, the Penn State tight end. Again, it was a pick that felt "early" to some, but he’s proven that his "sources" aren't just interns—they're the people making the phone calls in the war room.
The 36-Hour Rule
Timing is everything. You'll notice that the "official" Peter Schrager mock draft doesn't usually drop weeks in advance. He waits.
He typically releases his final version about 36 hours before the first round kicks off. Why? Because that’s when the smoke screens start to clear. Before that, GMs are lying to everyone. By Wednesday morning of draft week, the trades are being whispered and the "locks" are starting to set in stone.
"I'm not a scout. I'm a reporter."
That is the Schrager mantra. He’s the first to admit he’s not breaking down the "bend" of a defensive end on film. He’s asking the guy who owns the team what they think of that defensive end. It makes his mocks less of a "wish list" and more of a "spoiler alert."
Surprising Trends in Recent Predictions
In the 2025 cycle, we saw some wild shifts that only he seemed to capture early:
- The QB Slide: While others had four or five QBs in the top ten, Schrager was often the first to suggest that guys like Shedeur Sanders might slide further than the hype suggests.
- The "Non-Premium" Premium: He’s been a huge proponent of the "star power" picks. Think running backs and tight ends in the top ten. In an era where everyone says "don't draft a RB high," Schrager knows which GMs don't care about that analytics rule.
- Trade Intuition: He doesn't just mock players; he mocks the chaos. His 2025 mock featured a projected trade where the Colts leaped into the top ten for Colston Loveland. It’s that specific "who is talking to who" knowledge that sets him apart.
How to Use These Mocks for Your Own Benefit
If you’re a fan or a bettor, you have to read between the lines. If Schrager puts a player in a spot that makes no sense to you, don't dismiss it. That "nonsense" is usually a hint.
Look for the "culture fits." He often mentions specific coaches by name. If he says, "Sean Payton is going to love this guy's toughness," he isn't guessing. He's probably heard Payton say those exact words.
Next Steps for Draft Season:
- Wait for the Final Drop: Don't get too attached to his "version 1.0" or "2.0." The only one that truly matters is the one that comes out the Wednesday before the draft.
- Watch the Jets and Bucs: These are the teams where his intel seems most airtight. If he makes a "strange" pick here, it's almost certainly a direct leak.
- Ignore the "Value": Stop worrying about whether a player is a "reach" in a Schrager mock. In the real draft, there is no such thing as a reach—there is only the player who got picked and the players who didn't.
Keep an eye on the NFL Network or his social media feeds around mid-April. When that final list drops, it's usually the closest thing we have to a crystal ball.
Actionable Insight: To get the most out of draft week, compare Schrager’s final mock against Daniel Jeremiah’s. Jeremiah is the "tape" expert; Schrager is the "intel" expert. Where they overlap is where the "locks" live. Where they differ is where the draft gets interesting.
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Watch for the 2026 update: As we head into the next cycle, keep an eye on how he handles the defensive-heavy class expected in 2026. If he starts linking offensive tackles to teams with established veterans, listen closely—it usually means a trade or a surprise retirement is brewing behind the scenes.