Honestly, nobody saw it coming until it was basically a done deal. When news first broke that the Raiders reportedly agree to hire Pete Carroll as head coach back in early 2025, it felt like one of those classic "only in Vegas" moves. High stakes. A little bit of nostalgia. A whole lot of energy from a guy who, let's be real, has no business having that much pep in his step at 74 years old.
But here we are in 2026, and the "Win Forever" mantra has officially met its match in the "Silver and Black" reality.
The experiment is over. On January 5, 2026—a day that will forever be known as Black Monday in the Raiders' facility—Mark Davis and minority owner Tom Brady officially pulled the plug. One season. That's all the legendary Pete Carroll got in the desert. After a brutal 3-14 campaign that left the franchise holding the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming draft, the Raiders are once again searching for a soul.
The Morning the Raiders Agreed to Hire Pete Carroll
Let's rewind for a second. It’s January 2025. The Raiders had just finished a dismal 4-13 season under Antonio Pierce. The fanbase was restless. Mark Davis wanted a "home run" hire.
When reports surfaced that the Raiders were zeroing in on Pete Carroll, the NFL world did a collective double-take. Carroll had spent the previous year in an "advisor" role in Seattle after a decade-plus run that included a Super Bowl ring and a whole lot of gum-chewing. Most people thought he was destined for a life of California surfing and occasional front-office meetings.
Instead, he signed a three-year deal with a fourth-year option to become the oldest head coach in NFL history.
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The logic seemed sound-ish at the time. The Raiders needed culture. Carroll is culture. He’s the guy who turns a locker room into a fraternity of high-fives and "compete-at-everything" drills. Plus, with Tom Brady now in the building as a minority owner, there was this weird sense that they were building a "Mount Rushmore" of NFL leadership.
Why the Raiders-Carroll Marriage Crumbled So Fast
If you've followed the Raiders for any length of time, you know that hope is a dangerous thing in Las Vegas. The season started with a bang—a Week 1 win against the Patriots that had everyone thinking Pete was a genius.
Then, the wheels didn't just come off; they evaporated.
- The Geno Smith Gamble: To stabilize the offense, Carroll brought in his old Seattle pupil, Geno Smith. It was supposed to be a reunion for the ages. It wasn't. Geno threw a league-high 17 interceptions. The offense looked dated, predictable, and frankly, tired.
- The 11-Game Slide: After a Week 6 victory over Tennessee, the Raiders didn't win another game until the very last Sunday of the season. Eleven straight losses. That’s the kind of streak that gets even a Hall of Fame caliber coach shown the door.
- Age vs. Evolution: While Carroll’s energy remained high—he was still sprinting down the sidelines at 74—the scheme felt stuck in 2014. In a division where you have to outscore Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and a resurgent Bo Nix, "playing great defense and running the ball" only works if you actually play great defense. The Raiders didn't. They finished last in almost every meaningful offensive category.
It’s kinda tragic when you think about it. Carroll didn't lose his passion. He just lost the locker room's belief that his way still worked in the modern AFC West.
The Tom Brady Factor
One of the biggest nuances in this story is the role of Tom Brady. It’s not a secret anymore that Brady and General Manager John Spytek are the ones really steering the ship now.
Reports from inside the building suggest that while Mark Davis has the final say, it was Brady who ultimately advised that a change was necessary. There’s a poetic irony there, isn't there? The guy who famously beat Carroll in Super Bowl XLIX (the Malcom Butler interception game) is now the guy who helped end his coaching career a decade later.
The Raiders are now looking for a "long-term vision." That’s code for "someone younger who knows how to develop a rookie quarterback."
What Most People Get Wrong About the Firing
A lot of folks are saying Pete Carroll "failed" in Las Vegas. I think that’s a bit of a reach.
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The Raiders were a mess long before he got there. He walked into a situation with a roster that lacked depth and a quarterback situation that was basically a band-aid on a bullet wound. Was he the right hire? Probably not. But the failure is as much on the organization's lack of a coherent plan as it is on Carroll’s coaching.
Basically, the Raiders tried to shortcut a rebuild by hiring a legend. It’s the same thing they tried with Jon Gruden. It’s the same thing they tried with Josh McDaniels. It never works.
The No. 1 Pick and the Road Ahead
So, what now? The only "silver" lining in this "black" season is that the Raiders secured the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The word on the street is that Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman winner, is the target. The Raiders need a face of the franchise, and they need a coach who can actually talk to a 21-year-old without sounding like a grandfather giving a pep talk from the 90s.
Names like Klint Kubiak and Mike LaFleur are already circulating. The Raiders want an "offensive mind." They want the next Sean McVay, not the last Pete Carroll.
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Actionable Next Steps for Raiders Fans
If you're a fan of the Silver and Black, here’s how you should be looking at the next few months:
- Watch the John Spytek/Tom Brady Dynamic: This is the most stable the front office has looked in years. Spytek is a "football guy" through and through. Let them run the search without interference.
- Scout Fernando Mendoza: If you haven't watched his tape yet, start now. He is the likely future of the franchise.
- Lower Your 2026 Expectations: Even with a new coach and a superstar rookie QB, the AFC West is a meat grinder. This is a multi-year project, not a "quick fix" like they tried with Pete.
- Appreciate the Legend: Pete Carroll likely coached his last NFL game. Regardless of the 3-14 record in Vegas, the man is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. It’s okay to admit the fit was bad while still respecting the career.
The news that the Raiders reportedly agree to hire Pete Carroll as head coach will go down as one of the strangest footnotes in NFL history. A wild, one-year ride that proved even the most infectious "can-do" attitude can't overcome a roster in transition. Now, the Raiders have to decide if they finally want to build something from the ground up, or if they’re just going to chase the next big name.