Is he actually leaving this time? Honestly, if you’ve followed the Manchester City soap opera for the last decade, you know the drill. Every winter, usually right when the Manchester rain turns particularly bleak, the "Pep Guardiola News" cycle hits a fever pitch. This year is no different. We are sitting in January 2026, and the noise is deafening.
But here’s the thing: people are getting it wrong. Again.
There’s this persistent narrative that Pep is packing his bags because he’s finally "bored" or because the club’s legal battles are looming too large. People see the contract dates—that June 2027 expiration—and they start counting down the days. They look at City’s recent €2 billion spending milestone, capped off by the €72 million arrival of Antoine Semenyo from Bournemouth this month, and assume it's a final "all-in" gamble before the architect leaves the building.
It’s not that simple. It never is with Pep.
The Contract Reality vs. The "Growing Anticipation"
Let’s look at the facts. Back in late 2024, Pep signed a two-year extension. That keeps him at the Etihad until the summer of 2027. Despite this, reports from outlets like The Athletic have suggested there’s a "growing anticipation" within the league that this 2025-26 season might be his last dance.
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Why? Because football thrives on drama.
Pep himself isn't exactly helping to quiet the noise. In a recent press conference before the Carabao Cup semi-final against Newcastle, he got visibly tetchy. When asked if he’d be here next season, he basically told reporters that even with a ten-year contract, things change in six months. "End of the subject!" he snapped.
That doesn't sound like a man with a foot out the door. It sounds like a man who is exhausted by the same question he’s answered since 2017. He’s currently focused on a massive injury crisis—losing Josko Gvardiol and Ruben Dias has left his defense looking thinner than a championship race in May.
What’s actually happening behind the scenes?
City isn't sitting idle. They aren't stupid. Succession planning is a real thing, and Hugo Viana, the new sporting director, is reportedly already mapping out life after Guardiola. Xabi Alonso’s name is being whispered in the corridors of the Etihad more frequently these days.
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But there is a massive difference between "preparing for an exit" and "expecting an exit."
- The James Trafford Situation: Look at how Pep is handling the goalkeeper drama. He re-signed Trafford for £27m, then immediately benched him for Gianluigi Donnarumma. Now, Trafford wants out to save his 2026 World Cup hopes. Pep's response? He’s starting him in the cup but admits he "doesn't know" what happens in the summer.
- The Semenyo Signing: You don't spend €72m on a winger in January if you’re just "ticking over." This is a move to catch Arsenal in a brutal title race.
- The "Break" Myth: Pep told ESPN Brasil last year that when he leaves City, he will stop. Not move to Juventus. Not take the Brazil job immediately. He wants a break.
Why the 2026 Season Feels Different
We are currently witnessing a "recalibration." City just smashed Exeter 10-1 in the FA Cup, and while that sounds like business as usual, the team is actually in fourth place in the Champions League table. They are chasing Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal in the league.
The dominance isn't as effortless as it used to be.
Pep’s net spend sits at roughly €1.1 billion. That’s a lot of pressure. People love to point at the 115 charges—the legal "cloud"—as the reason he’ll leave. But if you know Pep, you know he’s a contrarian. He famously said he "felt he could not leave" during a four-match losing streak in late 2024. He’s more likely to stay to prove a point than to run away when things get difficult.
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The Successor Shortlist
If the rumors are true and 2026 is the beginning of the end, who takes the wheel?
- Xabi Alonso: The favorite. He plays the "City way" but with a modern, more direct twist.
- Enzo Maresca: The former assistant. He’s currently at Chelsea, but the links won't go away, even though he’s called them "100% speculation."
- The "Internal" Route: Could City pivot to someone like Ruben Amorim if the Alonso deal doesn't happen? Unlikely, but in this market, you never say never.
How to Filter the Noise
If you’re looking for the truth in the "Pep Guardiola News" avalanche, stop looking at the transfer rumors and start looking at his body language on the touchline.
He looks energized by the Semenyo signing. He’s obsessed with the development of Max Alleyne, the academy kid who just broke into the first team. These aren't the actions of a manager who has mentally checked out.
The real "deadline" isn't this summer. It’s likely January 2027, when he’ll have to decide if he wants one more year to finish the decade.
Actionable Insights for City Fans:
- Ignore the "Exit Confirmed" Headlines: Unless it comes from the club's official site or a Tier 1 source like David Ornstein, it's speculation designed for clicks.
- Watch the Defense: If City doesn't sign a right-back (watch the Amar Dedic rumors) or another center-back this month, the title race might be over before March.
- Track the 115 Charges: The resolution of this case will do more to determine Pep’s future than any contract extension ever could.
Pep is still here. He’s still winning. And frankly, he’s still the most frustrated person in the room whenever his future is brought up. That’s probably the best sign that he’s not going anywhere just yet.