You’re staring at a listing on eBay. It’s a "The Duke" Wilson ball, supposedly signed by the man who’s basically the modern-day face of the NFL. The price? $1,800. It seems like a steal compared to those $3,500 Fanatics listings, right?
Stop. Breathe.
The market for a patrick mahomes autographed football is a minefield of forgeries, skyrocketing premiums, and confusing "COAs" that aren't worth the paper they're printed on. Honestly, buying one of these isn't just a fan purchase; in 2026, it’s a high-stakes investment. If you aren't careful, you’re just paying four figures for a piece of leather and a Sharpie scribble from someone named "Pat" who lives in a basement.
The Reality of the Patrick Mahomes Autographed Football Market
Let’s talk numbers. As of early 2026, a standard Patrick Mahomes signed NFL "The Duke" football—the official game ball—usually starts around $2,100 to $2,600 at reputable retailers like Fanatics or Steiner Sports. If you want something special, like a Super Bowl LVIII inscribed ball or a dual-signed piece with Travis Kelce, you’re looking at $3,500 to $5,000.
Why so much? Because Mahomes is the safest bet in sports.
He’s already a three-time Super Bowl champ and multiple-time MVP. Collectors aren't just buying for the "cool factor" anymore. They’re banking on him catching Brady. When you buy a signed ball, you’re buying a share of a legacy that hasn't even hit its ceiling yet.
But here is where it gets tricky: the "Fanatics Exclusive" factor.
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Mahomes has a long-standing exclusive memorabilia deal with Fanatics. This means any "fresh" autographs hitting the market come through them first. If you see a ball without a Fanatics hologram, it’s not automatically a fake, but it better have a damn good story—and a sticker from PSA/DNA, JSA, or Beckett to back it up.
Spotting the Fakes (It's Harder Than You Think)
Forgeries are getting scarily good. We’re past the days of shaky, slow-drawn signatures that look like a child did them. Pro-level forgers study Mahomes' "PM2" stroke, the way he loops the "P" and the specific tilt of the "M."
- The "Too Good to Be True" Price: If someone is selling a signed game ball for $600 in a Facebook group, they are scamming you. Period. Even a "mini helmet" signed by Mahomes usually clears $1,000 these days.
- Ink Quality: Real signatures have "speed." You can see where the pen hit the leather fast and lifted off. Fakes often look uniform in thickness because the forger was tracing or moving slowly to get the lines right.
- The Inscription Trap: Sometimes you'll see "3x SB MVP" or "KC Chiefs." Mahomes is actually quite consistent with his inscriptions, but forgers love adding them to distract you from a mediocre signature.
Where to Buy Without Losing Your Mind
If you want to sleep at night, there are really only a few places to go.
Fanatics Authentic is the gold standard for Mahomes. Since they have the exclusive, you are getting it straight from the source. You’ll pay a premium—roughly $3,499 for a Super Bowl LVII or LVIII commemorative ball—but it comes with a tamper-evident hologram that you can verify in their online database.
Steiner Sports and SportsMemorabilia.com are also heavy hitters. They often carry "The Duke" team logo balls signed by Mahomes, typically priced between $2,200 and $3,700 depending on the specific edition.
Then there’s the secondary market: eBay and Heritage Auctions.
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This is where you can find deals, but you need to be a hawk. Look for "slabbed" or certified items. If the ball is inside a display case with a PSA/DNA or Beckett (BAS) sticker, you’re usually safe. These third-party authenticators have experts who have looked at thousands of Mahomes signatures. They know exactly how his hand-writing has evolved from his rookie year at Texas Tech to his veteran status today.
The "Inscription" Value Boost
Not all signed balls are created equal.
A plain signature on a white-panel football is the "entry-level" version. It’s fine, but it doesn't hold value like a Wilson "The Duke" Game Ball.
The real money is in the inscriptions.
- "3x SB MVP": Massive value.
- "15": His jersey number, common but necessary.
- "Showtime": A rarer nickname inscription that pops up occasionally.
If you find a ball that is team-signed—meaning the 2019 or 2023 Chiefs championship squad—the price can jump to $11,000 or even $19,000. We saw a 2013 Whitehouse Wildcats high school team-signed ball recently listed for over $19,500. Rarity drives the bus here.
Is It Actually a Good Investment?
Let’s be real: $3,000 for a football is a lot of money.
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But look at the trajectory. In 2021, a 1-of-1 Mahomes rookie card sold for $4.3 million. While a football will likely never hit seven figures, the "Mahomes Effect" is real. He is the "Michael Jordan" of the 2020s.
If he wins two more rings? That $2,500 ball you bought today might be a $7,500 asset by 2030.
However, there are risks. Injuries happen. Market bubbles burst. And most importantly, if you lose the Certificate of Authenticity (COA), the value of your ball drops by 70% instantly. Treat that piece of paper like it's a gold bar. Store it in a separate, fireproof safe.
Actionable Steps for Collectors
If you're ready to pull the trigger on a patrick mahomes autographed football, do it the right way.
First, decide on your budget. If you have $2,500+, go straight to Fanatics. It’s the easiest, safest route. If you have $1,500, you’ll need to hunt on eBay for a PSA-authenticated "mini ball" or a Texas Tech logo ball, which tends to be slightly cheaper than the NFL versions.
Second, verify the hologram. Before you send any money on a secondary site, ask the seller for the hologram number. Go to the PSA, JSA, or Fanatics website and plug that number in. If the description on the site doesn't perfectly match the ball in the photos, walk away.
Third, think about display. UV light is the enemy of ink. If you put your Mahomes ball in a sunny office, that $3,000 signature will fade into a $0 gray smudge in five years. Buy a high-quality glass display case with 99% UV protection. It’ll cost you another $100, but it protects a multi-thousand dollar investment.
Stick to the big-name authenticators, avoid "deals" that feel too good, and always prioritize "The Duke" game balls for the best long-term value.