It’s easy to look back at the Padres vs Cubs 2025 matchups and think you know the whole story based on a few highlights. We saw the flashy home runs and the rowdy crowds at Wrigley, sure. But if you actually dig into how these two teams collided throughout the 2025 season, the narrative is way more complicated than a simple win-loss record. Honestly, most fans completely missed how much the early April series set the stage for that chaotic October finish.
Baseball is weird.
You had two teams built on completely different philosophies. San Diego was all about that star power—Machado, Tatis Jr., and the relentless energy of Jackson Merrill. On the flip side, the Chicago Cubs under Craig Counsell played this methodical, gritty style of ball that drove opponents crazy. By the time they met in the National League Wild Card Series, it wasn’t just a game; it was a clash of identities.
The Regular Season Blur: April vs. Reality
One of the strangest things about the Padres vs Cubs 2025 season series was the timing. Would you believe they played their entire regular-season slate before tax day was even over? They wrapped up their head-to-head games by April 16.
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- Monday, April 14: Padres crushed it with a 10-4 win at Petco Park.
- Tuesday, April 15: A tight 2-1 pitcher’s duel went to the Cubs.
- Wednesday, April 16: San Diego took the rubber match 4-2.
The teams basically split their six total meetings down the middle. But because they didn't see each other for five months, everyone forgot how well they matched up. San Diego fans were riding high on Fernando Tatis Jr. and his electric grand slams, while Cubs fans were busy watching Pete Crow-Armstrong turn into a legitimate 30-30 threat.
Then October happened.
Why the 2025 Wild Card Series Flipped the Script
When the brackets finally locked in, and we realized we were getting a Padres vs Cubs 2025 postseason rematch, the vibes shifted. The Cubs had clinched their first playoff berth since the 2020 "bubble" season, and Wrigley Field was absolutely vibrating.
The Padres entered as the team with more postseason "scars." They’d knocked out the Mets in '22 and the Braves in '24. They were the favorites. But the Cubs had this secret weapon: Matthew Boyd. People forget Boyd had a career year with 14 wins, and he absolutely stifled the Padres' bats when it mattered most.
Game 1: The Palencia Factor
Nobody expected Daniel Palencia to be the hero of the series. He came out of the bullpen and dominated. The Cubs took Game 1 with a 3-1 victory, leaving the Padres looking flat. Nick Pivetta pitched well for San Diego—he actually got some down-ballot Cy Young votes that year—but he just didn't get the run support.
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Game 2: San Diego Fights Back
The Padres aren't a team that goes away quietly. Adrián Morejón stepped up and threw a gem, leading San Diego to a 3-0 shutout. Robert Suarez locked down the save, and for a moment, it felt like the Padres' superior playoff experience would carry them through.
Game 3: The Heartbreaker at Wrigley
The deciding Game 3 was a masterclass in tension. Yu Darvish, the veteran, went up against his former team. It was poetic, really. But the Cubs' defense—led by Dansby Swanson and a blooming Matt Shaw—was impenetrable. The Cubs walked away with another 3-1 win, clinching the series 2-1.
If you're keeping score at home, the Padres only managed five runs across three playoff games. You can't win in October like that.
Breaking Down the Matchups: Who Actually Won the Individual Battles?
When you look at the Padres vs Cubs 2025 stats, some names pop out that weren't even on the radar in March.
Basically, the Cubs won the first base battle. Michael Busch was a monster, hitting 34 homers and sporting a massive OPS advantage over Luis Arraez. Arraez is a legend for his contact hitting, but 2025 was arguably his weakest season. On the dirt, the shortstop battle between Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson was a literal toss-up. They hit almost identically, though Swanson’s defensive metrics gave him the slight edge.
The real "X-factor" was the trade deadline. San Diego picked up Ramón Laureano and Ryan O'Hearn from Baltimore, which basically saved their outfield after injuries to Jackson Merrill (who dealt with a nagging hamstring and a concussion).
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What This Means for 2026 and Beyond
The fallout of this series has been huge. As we sit here in early 2026, the Cubs have used that momentum to go big. They just signed Alex Bregman and traded for Edward Cabrera. They look like a juggernaut.
The Padres? They’re in a tougher spot. Their farm system is a bit lean right now, with most of their chips pushed into the middle for the 2024-2025 runs. They’ve lost Robert Suarez to free agency, and while they signed KBO star Sung-Mon Song to replace Arraez, there are a lot of questions.
Actionable Insights for Fans
If you're following these teams heading into the next season, keep an eye on these specific pivots:
- Watch the Bullpen Roles: With Suarez gone, San Diego is leaning heavily on Mason Miller. If Miller can’t stay healthy, the Padres' late-inning lead might vanish.
- The "Counsell Effect": The Cubs are playing "small ball" better than anyone. Watch how they utilize Pete Crow-Armstrong’s speed on the basepaths; he’s the engine of that offense now.
- Pitching Depth: The Cubs' rotation looks deeper on paper, but the Padres have a knack for finding "diamonds in the rough" like Jeremiah Estrada.
The Padres vs Cubs 2025 rivalry proved that stars win headlines, but depth wins October. While the Padres had the bigger names, the Cubs had the better roster construction for a three-game sprint.
To get ahead of the 2026 season, start tracking the spring training performance of the Cubs' new addition, Alex Bregman, and see how the Padres' pitching staff adjusts to the loss of their primary closer. These moves are a direct response to the lessons learned during their 2025 collision.