Honestly, if you've spent even one winter in the Fox Valley, you know the drill. You wake up, look out at Lake Winnebago, and try to guess if the "Oshkosh steam" is going to turn into a full-blown whiteout or just a light dusting. It’s kinda unpredictable.
Right now, as of Sunday, January 18, 2026, we are looking at a classic Wisconsin deep freeze. It's 7°F outside. But that number is a total lie. Because of a 12 mph wind coming off the southwest, it actually feels like -9°F. If you’re heading out to the Menominee Nation Arena or just grabbing a coffee downtown, that wind chill is the real story today.
The Current Oshkosh Weather Forecast Reality
Basically, we are trapped in a cloudy, cold bubble. Today's high is struggling to hit 11°F. That’s significantly colder than our usual January average high of 26°F. We’re in the thick of a "colder-than-normal" tercile that climate scientists at NOAA predicted for this weak La Niña season.
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There’s a 25% chance of snow showers today and tonight. It’s not a major "shoveler," but with 13 mph winds, whatever falls is going to drift.
Why January 18th is Feeling Particularly Brutal
The air is heavy. Humidity is sitting at 78%, which makes that 7°F air feel like it’s biting right through your coat. Most people think "dry cold" is the standard here, but the moisture off the open patches of the Fox River keeps things damp and bone-chilling.
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Tonight, the bottom drops out. We’re looking at a low of 2°F. If you have plans to be out late, just know the wind isn’t quitting.
What the Locals Actually Watch For
Forget the apps for a second. In Oshkosh, the real weather forecast is written on the lake.
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- Lake Winnebago Status: As of this week, lake levels are at 2.06 feet. The Army Corps of Engineers just closed a gate at the Menasha Dam to manage the outflow because of the incoming cold.
- The "Thaw" Myth: We had some warmer temps last week that brought the lake level up to 2.15 feet, but that's over. The "January Thaw" was short-lived this year.
- Monday Outlook: If you think today is cold, tomorrow is worse. There's a Cold Weather Advisory starting at 3:00 AM Monday. We’re talking wind chills of 20 to 30 below zero.
It’s the kind of weather where you don't just "wear a coat." You wear the thermal layers, the heavy wool socks, and the gloves you usually save for ice fishing. Honestly, if you don't have to be outside tomorrow morning, don't be.
Surviving the Week Ahead
The snow isn't the headline this week; the temperature is. While we have those 25% chances for snow showers lingering, the real hazard is the blowing and drifting. The National Weather Service in Green Bay is already warning about reduced visibility in open areas around the lake.
If you're driving Highway 41 between Oshkosh and Fond du Lac, watch for those crosswinds. They’ll push a light SUV around like a toy when the gusts hit 30+ mph, which is expected as the cold front firms up.
Actionable Winter Prep for Oshkosh Residents
- Check your tires now: Cold like this drops your PSI fast. You don't want a "low pressure" light on Highway 41 in -10°F weather.
- Ice Safety: If you’re tempted to head out on Winnebago, remember the recent inflows and warm spikes. The ice is "variable" right now. Check with local bait shops before taking a vehicle out.
- Pipe Protection: With lows hitting 2°F tonight and dropping further Monday, make sure your garage-adjacent pipes are insulated.
- The "Dome" Alternative: If you’re dying to get out but can’t stand the wind, those River Domes at Fox River Brewing are a lifesaver for "outdoor" vibes without the frostbite.
We are entering the coldest stretch of the year—historically, January 21 to 30 is the "brutal zone" for Wisconsin. We're just getting a head start. Stay warm, keep the salt handy for the porch, and maybe skip the car wash until the temps crawl back into the teens.