Walk into any O'Reilly store on a Saturday morning and you’ll smell it—that mix of rubber, gear oil, and slightly burnt coffee. It’s not exactly the scent of a high-growth tech darling. Yet, if you look at the O'Reilly Auto Parts stock price over the last decade, you'd think they were selling software instead of spark plugs. Honestly, it’s one of those companies that just refuses to quit, even when the rest of the retail world is panicking.
The stock is hovering around $94.63 right now. That sounds a bit low if you remember it being over $1,200 last year, but don't freak out. They did a 15-for-1 stock split back in June 2025. It’s the same pizza, just sliced into more pieces.
Why the O'Reilly Auto Parts Stock Price Keeps Defying Gravity
Most people look at the economy and think "if people are broke, they won't spend money." That logic usually works for jewelry or fancy vacations. It doesn't work for a busted alternator when you need to get to work on Monday.
The "secret sauce" for O'Reilly right now is basically the fact that we’re all driving junkers.
The average car on American roads is now over 12.8 years old. That’s a record.
When cars hit that 6-to-14-year-old "sweet spot," everything starts breaking. The warranty is long gone. The original dealer doesn't want to see you. So, you end up at O'Reilly. Or your mechanic does. That dual-threat model—selling to DIYers and professional shops—is why the O'Reilly Auto Parts stock price stays so resilient. In their Q3 2025 report, their professional business grew by more than 10%. That’s massive.
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The Buyback Machine Nobody Talks About
While everyone is obsessing over AI and chips, O'Reilly is quietly eating itself. In a good way.
Since 2011, they have spent something like $26 billion buying back their own shares. Just this past November, the board authorized another $2 billion for the pile.
Think about it this way:
- They make a ton of cash.
- They don't pay a dividend (which some people hate, but it works here).
- They use that cash to reduce the number of shares in existence.
- The remaining shares become more valuable because there are fewer of them.
It’s a simple loop. Boring? Yes. Effective? Ask the long-term holders who have seen the stock outpace the S&P 500 for years. Even when they miss a revenue target slightly, like they did in early 2024, the "buyback floor" usually keeps the price from falling into a black hole.
What Could Actually Trip Them Up?
Nothing is a "sure thing" in the markets. Ever.
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One thing that's been nagging at analysts lately is the valuation. Trading at over 30x earnings isn't cheap. It’s actually quite a premium compared to the rest of the retail sector. Some bears argue that if consumer spending really craters, even "essential" repairs might get deferred. We saw a hint of this in mid-2025 when DIY transaction counts dipped slightly because of inflation. People were literally waiting until the part actually failed before replacing it.
Then there’s the EV transition.
Electric cars have fewer moving parts. No oil changes. No spark plugs. No mufflers.
If the world goes 100% electric tomorrow, O'Reilly has a problem. But the world isn't going 100% electric tomorrow. It’s going to take decades for the internal combustion fleet to disappear. In the meantime, those "Professional Parts People" are betting on the fact that EVs still have brakes, tires, and suspension systems that break just like anything else.
The 2026 Outlook: What to Watch
If you’re tracking the O'Reilly Auto Parts stock price for the coming months, keep your eyes on two specific dates.
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The Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings are set to drop on February 4, 2026. Management is expecting to finish 2025 with total revenue between $17.6 billion and $17.8 billion. If they hit those numbers, it marks 33 straight years of positive same-store sales growth. That’s a streak that would make most CEOs weep with envy.
They are also planning to open about 230 new stores in 2026. They aren't just staying in the U.S. either. They’ve hit their 100th store milestone in Mexico and are pushing harder into Canada.
Practical Moves for Your Portfolio
If you’re looking at this stock, don’t expect it to double overnight. It’s a grinder, not a rocket ship.
- Watch the "Car Parc" Data: If the average age of cars starts to drop (meaning people are buying new cars again), O'Reilly might see a temporary slowdown. But with high interest rates sticking around, that seems unlikely.
- Mind the Split: Don’t let the "low" $94 price tag fool you into thinking it's a penny stock. The market cap is still massive—roughly $80 billion.
- The Buyback Factor: Check the quarterly filings to see if they are actually using that $2 billion authorization. If they stop buying back shares, that’s a red flag that they might be worried about cash flow.
- Wait for the Pullback: History shows that O'Reilly often dips right after a "good" earnings report because of profit-taking. Those dips have historically been the best entry points for long-term investors.
At the end of the day, O'Reilly isn't a tech company, but it trades with the discipline of one. It’s a bet on the fact that Americans will keep driving old cars because they have to, and they’ll keep fixing them because it’s cheaper than a $700-a-month car payment. That’s a pretty solid bet to make.