If you’ve spent any time on the sidelines in Lake Oswego or Central Catholic’s stadium lately, you know that oregon hs football rankings are basically the third rail of local sports. Parents get heated. Coaches get cryptic. And the computers? Well, the computers usually have their own ideas that don’t always match what we see on the turf.
Honestly, the 2025 season was a perfect example of this chaos. You had teams like West Linn looking like absolute world-beaters for months, only to have the OSAA math and the human coaches' polls play a high-stakes game of tug-of-war. Understanding how these rankings actually function—and why your team might be "disrespected" despite a winning record—requires peeling back some pretty dense layers of linear algebra and human bias.
The OSAA Math Problem: RPI vs. Colley
The Oregon School Activities Association (OSAA) doesn't just pick favorites based on who has the flashiest jerseys. They use a system that is 50% Rating Percentage Index (RPI) and 50% Colley Bias-Free Rating. It’s a hybrid meant to reward teams for playing tough schedules while simultaneously punishing those who "pad" their records with easy wins.
RPI is the one most fans kind of understand. It looks at your winning percentage, but then it leans heavily—65%, to be exact—on your opponents' winning percentage. If you beat a team that ends up 0-9, that win actually hurts your RPI more than a "quality loss" to a powerhouse like Lake Oswego.
Then there’s the Colley Method.
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It was designed by an astrophysicist named Wes Colley to fix the subjectivity of the old BCS college system. It ignores score differentials entirely. A 1-point win in overtime counts exactly the same as a 50-0 blowout. For fans who love to see their team put up "basketball scores," this is often the most frustrating part of the official oregon hs football rankings. The computer doesn't care that your quarterback threw five touchdowns in the first half; it only cares that you got the 'W'.
Why West Linn and Lake Oswego Always Cloud the Top
If you look at the 2025-2026 landscape, the Three Rivers League continues to be the "SEC of Oregon." West Linn and Lake Oswego are almost always locked in a battle for that #1 spot.
By late November 2025, West Linn sat at 11-1 with an OSAA ranking of #1, while Lake Oswego was right on their heels at #3. But here is where it gets weird. MaxPreps, which uses its own proprietary algorithm, actually flipped them at points because their "strength of schedule" metric weighed the Lakers' narrow wins against top-tier California teams differently than the OSAA's system, which mostly focuses on in-state results or immediate neighbors.
- West Linn (11-1): Known for a high-flying offense led by breakout junior QB Sloan Baker.
- Lake Oswego (12-1): Built on a defense that allowed fewer than 12 points per game for most of the season.
- Central Catholic (10-3): The perennial powerhouse that often "under-ranks" early due to a brutal non-conference schedule but surges in the playoffs.
Central Catholic is a classic case study. They might start the season ranked 5th or 6th because they lost a game to a national top-50 team from Washington or California. The OSAA computer sees a loss and drops them. But anyone with eyes can see they’re one of the three best teams in the state. By the time they knocked off Willamette (who was 10-1) in the 6A quarterfinals, the rankings finally caught up to the reality on the field.
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The Disconnect Between Coaches and Computers
In early November 2025, the final OSAA coaches poll came out. It’s always fascinating to compare it to the "cold" computer data. The coaches, who actually watch the film and see the injuries, voted West Linn as a nearly unanimous #1. They also gave a lot of love to Nelson High School, ranking them #3 after an 8-1 start.
The computers were a bit more skeptical of Nelson initially because of their league's overall strength. But the Hawks proved the humans right by making their first-ever 6A semifinal appearance behind senior QB Danny Leary.
It’s also worth looking at the smaller classifications. In 5A, Summit and Silverton have been playing a game of musical chairs. Summit went 12-1 and dominated the 5A rankings for most of the year, but a season-opening loss to Silverton kept the "Foxes" in the conversation for months. When you're looking at oregon hs football rankings, you have to remember that a single Friday night in September can haunt a team's RPI until November.
Surprises and "Paper Tigers"
Every year, the rankings produce what some call "paper tigers"—teams with 9-0 records that are ranked lower than 6-3 teams.
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Take Lakeridge in 2025. They finished the regular season 6-5. On paper, that looks mediocre. But the computer rankings had them at #7 or #9 in 6A because their losses were all to teams in the top 5. They played the toughest schedule in the state. Meanwhile, a team like Willamette went 10-1 but struggled to break into the top 3 because their "Opponent Winning Percentage" wasn't as robust.
How to Actually Use the Rankings
If you're a player, parent, or just a degenerate high school football fan, don't take the weekly movement too seriously until Week 6. Before then, there isn't enough data for the "Opponent of Opponent" math to stabilize.
- Watch the "Strength of Schedule" (SOS): If your team is winning but dropping in the rankings, it’s usually because the teams they beat earlier in the season are losing their games.
- Check the Colley vs. RPI Split: If a team is #2 in RPI but #8 in Colley, it means they are winning "ugly" against good teams. The RPI loves the quality of the opponent; the Colley wants to see more dominant win-loss consistency.
- Ignore the Blowouts: Don't get mad when your team wins by 40 and stays put. The OSAA system specifically excludes margin of victory to prevent teams from running up the score on overmatched opponents just to climb the rankings.
The most actionable way to track this is to follow the OSAA Live Rankings which update nightly. But always keep an eye on the High School on SI Top 25. That poll usually bridges the gap between what the computer thinks and what is actually happening under the lights.
For the most accurate look at where things stand right now, you should compare the OSAA's official RPI/Colley average against the MaxPreps "Strength" rating. When those two align, you’ve usually found the true favorite for the state title. If they don't, expect an upset in the quarterfinals.
Monitor the weekly OSAA rankings specifically on Tuesday mornings. This is when the previous weekend's data has fully settled and out-of-state opponent scores have been verified. Look for teams with a high "OWP" (Opponent Winning Percentage) above .650; these are the teams most likely to survive the grueling November playoff bracket regardless of their seed number.