So, you’ve probably seen the headlines. Maybe you’ve even felt the ground shift a little if you’re one of the millions of people working for the U.S. government. The talk about OPM firing federal employees isn’t just water cooler gossip anymore; it’s become a full-blown transformation of how the "deep state"—or the civil service, depending on who you ask—actually functions.
Honestly, it’s a lot to take in. For decades, a federal job was seen as the ultimate "safe" bet. You put in your time, you do your work, and you’re basically set until retirement. But as of early 2026, those old rules have been tossed out the window. Between the massive layoffs in 2025 and the new "Schedule Policy/Career" rules, the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) is overseeing a workforce that looks very different than it did just two years ago.
The Big Shrink: 317,000 Departures and Counting
Let's look at the raw numbers because they're kind of staggering. In 2025 alone, the federal workforce shrank by about 317,000 people. Now, to be clear, OPM didn't just walk into a room and fire 300,000 people on a Tuesday. It was a mix of things.
Most of these departures—around 144,000—came from what Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) called the "fork in the road" offer. It was basically a "leave now and get paid through September" deal. A lot of people took it. Then you had another 129,000 who just left through "routine attrition," which is a fancy way of saying they quit or retired and weren't replaced.
But the part that’s got everyone on edge is the involuntary separations.
About 24,000 people were actually forced out in 2025. That includes 17,000 through Reductions in Force (RIF) and about 7,000 probationary employees who were let go. If you're wondering why that number isn't higher given the rhetoric, it's because the legal process for OPM firing federal employees is still a massive bureaucratic maze, even with the new administration pushing the limits.
Why the EPA and Education Got Hit Hardest
It wasn't an even split across the board. If you worked at the Department of Homeland Security, you might have actually seen more hiring. But if you were at the EPA, the Department of Education, or the CFPB? Different story. Some agencies saw their staff levels plummet by over 30%. In some extreme cases, like the GSA’s "18F" unit or the Institute of Museum and Library Services, the cuts were essentially 100%.
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Schedule F is Back (But with a New Name)
The biggest hammer the OPM is currently swinging is something called Schedule Policy/Career. You might remember it as "Schedule F" from back in 2020. President Trump reinstated it on his first day back in 2025, and by late last year, the final regulations were being hammered out.
Basically, this reclassifies about 50,000 federal employees—mostly those in "policy-determining" or "policy-advocating" roles—into a new category.
What does that actually mean for the person in the cubicle? It means they lose their civil service protections. Normally, if the government wants to fire you, they have to provide "due process." You get 30 days' notice, a chance to respond, and the right to appeal to the Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB).
Under Schedule Policy/Career, that's gone.
"The federal service has matured to the point where the status quo removal restrictions are unconstitutional overcorrections," the OPM noted in its recent regulatory drafts.
Translation: The administration believes it should be able to fire policy-level staffers at will if they aren't "faithfully implementing" the President's agenda.
Can They Really Just Fire You?
Yes and no. It depends on where you sit.
If you are a "rank and file" employee in the competitive service, you still have your Chapter 75 protections. The OPM can’t just fire you because they don't like your tie. They still need to prove misconduct or poor performance.
But here’s the kicker: the "Reductions in Force" (RIF) process is the loophole. If an agency "reorganizes" or "lacks funds," they can eliminate your entire position. OPM’s RIF regulations look at four things when deciding who stays:
- Tenure: Are you permanent or temporary?
- Veterans’ Preference: Vets almost always get a "bump" in retention.
- Length of Service: How many years have you put in?
- Performance Ratings: This is where it gets spicy.
In a RIF, an "Outstanding" rating can give you the equivalent of 20 extra years of service for retention purposes. That’s huge. It's why there’s been so much drama lately over managers "fixing" performance reviews.
The Shutdown Speedbump
Wait, there's a temporary pause.
In late 2025, the U.S. went through a record-breaking government shutdown that lasted over six weeks. When Congress finally passed a funding bill (the Continuing Appropriations Act of 2026), they tucked in a little surprise: a total ban on RIFs through January 30, 2026.
So, for right now, the OPM firing federal employees via mass layoffs is technically on ice. The law actually forced agencies to rescind RIF notices that were sent out during the fall. If you were one of the people who got a "pink slip" in October 2025, the agency had to take it back and pay you retroactively.
But don't get too comfortable. That's a temporary stay of execution. Once the current funding expires at the end of January, the "no-RIF" rule expires with it.
What Most People Get Wrong About Federal Firings
A lot of people think the OPM is this big, scary office that just decides who stays and who goes. It’s more like OPM writes the "Rulebook" and individual agencies like the DOJ or the USDA have to play the game.
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One big misconception? That you can’t be fired during your probationary period.
Actually, that's the easiest time to get fired. If you're in your first year (or two, depending on the role), you have almost zero appeal rights. The government essentially views the probationary period as the final stage of the interview. If you're not a fit, they can—and frequently do—just let you go with minimal paperwork.
Another one: "The President can't fire me."
While it's true the President doesn't usually sign your individual termination letter, he appoints the OPM Director and the heads of the agencies. If the OPM Director changes the rules (like they did with Schedule Policy/Career), the "protection" you thought you had can vanish overnight.
Actionable Steps for Federal Employees in 2026
If you’re currently working for the feds and you’re worried about the OPM’s next move, standing still is the worst thing you can do. Here is what you should actually be doing right now:
- Check Your Position Description (PD): Seriously, go find it in your eOPF. Look for keywords like "confidential," "policy-determining," or "policy-advocating." If those words are in there, you are a prime candidate for being moved to the new Schedule Policy/Career category where you can be fired at will.
- Max Out Your Performance Ratings: Since "Outstanding" ratings add 20 years of "virtual" seniority during a RIF, your annual review is no longer just a formality. It is your primary shield. If your boss gives you a "Fully Successful" instead of an "Outstanding," you might want to consider a formal grievance if you have the evidence to back it up.
- Update Your Service Computation Date (SCD): Make sure every day of your military or past civilian service is credited. During a layoff, a single month of seniority can be the difference between keeping your job and being "riffed."
- Keep a Paper Trail: If you’re being asked to do something that feels like a "loyalty test" or contradicts existing law, document it. While the new OPM rules make it easier to fire people for "resistance to policy," whistleblower protections at the Office of Special Counsel (OSC) still exist.
- Monitor the Jan 30 Deadline: The current ban on RIFs is a ticking clock. Keep an eye on the news regarding the 2026 appropriations bills. If Congress doesn't extend the RIF ban, expect a new wave of notices to go out in February.
The reality is that the era of "guaranteed" federal employment is over for a significant portion of the workforce. Whether that's a good thing for "accountability" or a bad thing for "stability" depends on who you talk to, but for the person holding the job, the only way forward is to stay informed and stay indispensable.