Ever stare at a crossword grid until the black and white squares start to blur, wondering why on earth the clue for "ones most likely to pay out" is staring back at you like a riddle from a Sphinx? You aren't alone. It's one of those classic New York Times (NYT) phrasing traps. If you're a regular in the "Grey Lady’s" gaming section, you know that the editors—shoutout to Will Shortz and Joel Fagliano—love words that pull double or triple duty.
When we talk about things or "ones" that pay out, our brains immediately go to a Vegas slot machine or maybe a high-yield savings account. But in the world of the NYT Crossword, "payout" is often a pun.
Honestly, the most common answer you’re looking for is SURE THINGS.
Think about it. In a betting context, a "sure thing" is a wager that is virtually guaranteed to return your money. But the crossword is rarely that linear. Sometimes the clue is actually looking for FAVORITES or SLOTS. It all depends on the day of the week and how much the constructor wants to make you sweat.
The Logic of the NYT Payout Clue
Crossword construction is basically an architectural feat using only the alphabet. When a constructor needs to fill a seven or nine-letter gap, they look for phrases that feel "in the language." SURE THINGS fits that bill perfectly.
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You’ve probably noticed that the difficulty of these clues shifts as the week goes on. A Monday puzzle might give you a straightforward "Slot machines, essentially." But by the time you hit Friday or Saturday, "ones most likely to pay out" could be a devious pun referring to something like ATM USERS or even TELLERS.
Why "Sure Things" Reigns Supreme
In the NYT archives, the phrase "Sure thing" has appeared hundreds of times, though not always in this exact "pay out" context. It’s a versatile filler.
- Betting odds: It refers to a horse or a team that is heavily favored.
- Certainty: It’s a synonym for "Of course!" or "You bet!"
- The Payout: In financial or gambling slang, these are the bets that actually move money back into your pocket.
If you’re stuck on a 9-letter word for this clue, start with SURETHINGS. If it’s a 4-letter word? Try ODDS. Crosswords are a game of probability.
How Connections and the Mini Change the Game
The NYT ecosystem has expanded way beyond the 15x15 grid. If you found this phrase in Connections, the logic flips. Connections is about categories. If you see words like "FAVORITE," "SHOO-IN," "LOCK," and "CINCH," the category is essentially "ones most likely to pay out" or "guaranteed winners."
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The Mini Crossword is a different beast. Because the grid is so small (usually 5x5), the answers have to be punchy. A "payout" clue in the Mini is likely to be ATM or WIN. It’s less about the clever wordplay and more about the brutal efficiency of space.
Common Answers for "Payout" Style Clues
I've spent way too much time looking at XWord Info and other databases. Here’s a quick rundown of what usually fits:
- FAVORITES (9 letters): Usually refers to the horse with the lowest odds.
- SHOO INS (7 letters): People or things certain to succeed.
- LOCKS (5 letters): Sports betting slang for a guaranteed win.
- SLOTS (5 letters): The actual machines that pay out (physically).
- ASSETS (6 letters): In a business-themed puzzle, these are the ones that pay out dividends.
The Evolution of NYT Wordplay
Crosswords aren't static. Back in the 70s and 80s, clues were much more dictionary-heavy. They were "definitional." Nowadays, the NYT prides itself on being "cultural."
This means "ones most likely to pay out" could even refer to CASH COWS.
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Basically, the "ones" in the clue is a pronoun doing heavy lifting. It can refer to people, machines, animals (horses), or abstract concepts. When you see "ones," always ask yourself: is this a person (plural) or a thing (plural)?
If the clue has a question mark at the end—like "Ones most likely to pay out?"—the answer is almost certainly a pun. Maybe it's FLUSHES in a poker game. Or perhaps it's WINNERS.
Actionable Tips for Solving These Clues
Don't let a "pay out" clue ruin your streak. Here is how you should actually approach it:
- Check the Length: Count those squares first. A 4-letter word is almost never "Sure things." It's "Lock" or "Cinch."
- Look at the Crosses: If you have the first letter and it’s an 'S', you’re likely looking at "Sure things" or "Shoo-ins."
- Consider the Theme: If the rest of the puzzle is about banking, the answer might be CDs or BONDS. If it's about the Kentucky Derby, go with FAVORITES.
- The Question Mark Rule: I can't stress this enough. If there is a question mark, stop thinking about money. Think about metaphors.
Crosswords are supposed to be a "kinda" frustrating, "sorta" brilliant way to wake up your brain. If you find yourself stuck on "ones most likely to pay out," just remember that the constructor is trying to trick your internal dictionary into a narrow definition. Broaden the scope. Think about what "paying out" means in a grocery store, at a bank, or on a race track.
Next time you open the app, look at the clue again. Does "FAVORITES" fit? If not, try "SURE THINGS." You'll have that gold star on your calendar in no time.