March Madness does weird things to people. We start seeing ghosts in the brackets, hunting for that one specific 15-over-2-seed upset that makes us look like a genius in the office pool. When the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket dropped and showed Omaha vs St Johns, the "Cinderella" sirens started blaring immediately. You had a scrappy Summit League champion in Omaha making their first-ever D1 tournament appearance, and on the other side, a St. John's team that—while dominant—still feels like it’s carrying the weight of a 25-year drought.
Honestly, the hype was a bit of a trap. If you actually watched these two teams leading up to their showdown in Providence, you knew this wasn't just a "big school vs. small school" story. It was a clash of two very different basketball philosophies. Rick Pitino has turned St. John's back into a defensive meat grinder, while Omaha spent the year playing a style of basketball that basically dared you to outrun them.
The Night the Mavericks Met the Red Storm
The game at Amica Mutual Pavilion started exactly how every underdog story is supposed to start. Omaha came out swinging. They didn't look scared of the Big East champions; they looked like they belonged. Within the first three minutes, the Mavericks had a 7-0 lead. It was quiet in the building, except for the traveling Omaha fans who probably couldn't believe their eyes.
Marquel Sutton, who has been the heartbeat of that Omaha program, was doing everything. He ended up with 10 points in the first half alone. For about 14 minutes, Omaha actually led the game. Think about that. A 15-seed holding a lead for nearly three-quarters of the first half against a team that won 31 games.
But then, reality—and Rick Pitino's halftime adjustments—hit like a freight train.
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The Johnnies went into the locker room up 33-28, which felt like a win for Omaha at the time. Then the second half started. St. John's came out and went on a 12-2 run in the first three minutes. That was it. The door slammed shut. By the time the clock struck midnight, the final score was 83-53. A 30-point gap that honestly didn't reflect how competitive that first half was, but perfectly illustrated the depth difference between the Big East and the Summit League.
Why St. John's is Finally Back (For Real)
People have been waiting for St. John's to be "back" since the Bill Clinton administration. Winning 31 games in 2025 wasn't an accident. They tied a program record that hasn't been touched since the 1985-86 season. That is a long time to wait for greatness.
What makes this specific St. John's team different? It’s the defense. They allowed only 65.9 points per game throughout the season. In the Omaha vs St Johns game, they held the Mavericks to a dismal 20.6% shooting from the floor in the second half. You aren't going to win many games—let alone tournament games—shooting like that.
RJ Luis Jr. is the name you have to know here. He dropped 22 points on Omaha, including five triples. He’s a 6-foot-7 guard who plays with the kind of New York edge that Pitino craves. When you combine that with Kadary Richmond's floor generalship (10 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists in that game), you have a backcourt that can ruin any mid-major's dream.
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The Omaha Turnaround Nobody Noticed
Let’s give Omaha their flowers for a second. This team was picked to finish second-to-last in their own conference. They started the season 4-9. Most people—myself included—had written them off by Christmas.
Instead, they went on a tear, winning 18 of their last 21 games. They didn't just stumble into the tournament; they kicked the door down by winning the Summit League regular season and the tournament.
- Marquel Sutton: 19.1 PPG and 8.0 RPG. The guy is a walking double-double.
- JJ White: The engine. He led Omaha with 15 points and five assists against the Red Storm.
- First-timer Status: This was Omaha's first trip to the Big Dance. The 22 wins they racked up set a program record for the D1 era.
Even in a 30-point loss, they out-rebounded the Red Storm for parts of the game and finished nearly even on the glass (45 to 47). They just couldn't find the bottom of the net when it mattered.
Betting Trends and What We Learned
If you were looking at the Omaha vs St Johns spread, it was sitting around -19.5 for St. John's. Most experts thought Omaha would cover. They’d covered six straight going into the game. But the Johnnies' second-half explosion meant they covered easily.
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The total was set at 150.5, and if you took the under, you were a happy person. The teams combined for 136. St. John's defense is just too suffocating for high-scoring affairs unless they're playing a team that can match their transition speed.
The Talent Gap is Real, But Shrinking
There's a lot of talk about the "transfer portal era" leveling the playing field. To an extent, it does. Omaha has some high-major talent. But St. John's is currently pulling in guys like Ian Jackson and Dillon Mitchell—former top-10 recruits.
That’s the difference. When Omaha goes to their bench, the quality drops a notch. When St. John's goes to their bench, they’re bringing in guys like Simeon Wilcher, who would be the best player on 80% of the teams in the country. Wilcher had 13 points against Omaha and hit three big shots from deep just when the Mavericks were trying to make a run.
Actionable Insights for Next Season
If you are watching these two programs moving forward into the 2025-26 season, keep these things in mind:
- Watch the St. John's Perimeter Defense: They live and die by the "squeeze." If they can keep opponents under 30% from three like they did to Omaha (who shot a brutal 13.9% from deep), they are a Final Four threat.
- Omaha's Recruitment is Changing: After this tournament run, the Mavericks are no longer an afterthought. Look for them to be much more aggressive in the portal for size. They were outmatched physically inside against Zuby Ejiofor and the Red Storm frontcourt.
- The Pitino Effect: Rick is now the first coach to take six different schools to the tournament. The man knows how to peak in March. If St. John's is hovering around the Top 25 in February, bet on them to make a deep run.
- Summit League Power Vacuum: With Omaha proving they can compete (at least for a half) with the big boys, the Summit League's profile is rising. Don't auto-fade the Summit champ in your 2026 brackets.
The Omaha vs St Johns game wasn't the upset everyone wanted, but it was a masterclass in how a blue-blood program re-establishes its identity. Omaha will be back. St. John's, however, is already here.
Moving forward, the smart money stays on the Red Storm as long as their defensive metrics stay in the top 30 nationally. For Omaha, the next step is finding a secondary scoring threat to take the pressure off Sutton when teams decide to double-team him out of the game. Keep an eye on Tony Osburn; his development as a shooter will be the key to whether Omaha can repeat as Summit League champs.