Honestly, if you’re looking for a white winter in the Sooner State right now, you might want to lower those expectations. As of mid-January 2026, Oklahoma is basically stuck in a classic "tug-of-war" weather pattern that’s leaving most of us reaching for the chapstick rather than the snow shovel.
It's been dry. Like, "45 days without meaningful rain in OKC" kind of dry.
While the extended weather forecast for Oklahoma shows some tiny flickers of hope for moisture toward the end of the month, the big picture is dominated by a weakening La Niña that just won't let go of the steering wheel. We’re currently looking at a state where over 70% of the land is under some form of drought, and for those of us out in the western counties or down near the Red River, the "extreme" drought labels are starting to feel a bit too permanent.
The Immediate Outlook: Sun, Wind, and a Jolt of Cold
Right now, the current conditions in Oklahoma are pretty typical for a mid-winter day—mostly cloudy with a temperature of 37°F and a biting wind from the west at 13 mph. It feels more like 29°F out there. If you're planning your week, here's the lowdown on what the next few days actually look like.
Saturday, January 17, is staying sunny but cold with a high of 41°F and a low dipping way down to 17°F. You'll notice the wind too, coming from the northwest at about 21 mph.
Sunday brings a nice little warm-up to 55°F, which sounds great until you realize the low is still sitting at 18°F. It’s that classic Oklahoma roller coaster. Monday, January 19, takes us back down with a high of only 35°F and a 10% chance of some light snow, though nobody is expecting a blizzard.
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Basically, the next ten days look like this:
- Tuesday (Jan 20): Sunny, high of 48°F.
- Wednesday (Jan 21): Mostly sunny and a bit warmer, hitting 56°F.
- Thursday (Jan 22): Partly sunny, 51°F.
- Friday (Jan 23): The "warm" day of the week with a high of 62°F.
- Saturday (Jan 24): Clouds move back in, high of 49°F.
- Sunday (Jan 25): A sharp drop back to a high of 30°F and a low of 20°F.
Why It’s So Dry: The La Niña Hangover
The real story behind the extended weather forecast for Oklahoma is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We've been under the thumb of a weak La Niña, which usually means the jet stream stays too far north to bring us those juicy Gulf moisture storms.
State Climatologist Gary McManus has been tracking this "warm and dry" trend that started back in November. In fact, November 2025 was the seventh-warmest on record for the state. That warmth, combined with a lack of rain, has created a massive "fuel load" of dead grass and dormant vegetation.
Fire danger is the big concern right now. Because we haven't had the moisture to keep things damp, those north winds gusting at 30 mph (like we saw on January 14) turn the prairie into a tinderbox. The Oklahoma Forestry Services is already on high alert because, frankly, the "green-up" of spring feels a long way off.
Looking Into February and March
There is a light at the end of the tunnel, but it’s a bit dim. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is predicting a 75% chance that we transition to "ENSO-neutral" conditions between now and March.
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What does that mean for your backyard?
Usually, when La Niña fades, the weather patterns become more "equal chance." We aren't guaranteed to stay dry, but we aren't guaranteed to get soaked either. Some models are actually hinting at a shift toward a wetter pattern for eastern Oklahoma as we get into late January, with a 40-50% chance of above-normal precipitation.
Western Oklahoma and the Panhandle? They’re likely looking at "near normal" conditions, which, in the middle of winter, isn't a whole lot of rain anyway.
Misconceptions About the Drought
A lot of people think that because we had a historically wet spring in 2025, the drought is over.
Nope.
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Drought in Oklahoma is like a bad penny—it always turns up. We broke a six-year drought cycle last year, but the dry fall and winter have brought it roaring back. Central Oklahoma is currently about 14 days away from breaking the all-time record for consecutive days without rain.
What You Should Do Now
Since the extended weather forecast for Oklahoma doesn't show a major "soaker" anytime soon, you’ve got to be smart about the dry conditions.
First, keep a close eye on "Fire Days." When the humidity drops below 25% and the winds pick up, skip the brush pile burning. Second, if you have young trees planted last year, don't forget to give them a drink. Even in winter, dormant plants can die from "winter desiccation" if the soil is bone-dry for two months straight.
Lastly, keep your winter gear handy. Even though we’re seeing highs in the 50s and 60s this week, that January 25th drop to a high of 30°F is a reminder that winter is nowhere near finished with us.
Next Steps for Oklahomans:
- Monitor the Mesonet: Check the "Ticker" daily for localized fire risk updates.
- Water strategically: Give your perennials and young trees a deep soak on a day when it's above 40 degrees.
- Check your tires: Large temperature swings (like 17°F to 55°F) cause tire pressure to fluctuate wildly; make sure you're not running low.