Nobody saw this coming. A few years ago, if you said an Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers matchup would be the hottest ticket in basketball, people would’ve laughed. Fast forward to now, and it’s basically the centerpiece of the league's new era. We aren't just talking about two small-market teams having a "good run." We are talking about the 2025 NBA Finals rematch that changed the way we look at rebuilding.
The history here is weirdly poetic. Think about it: both franchises are built on the back of the same guy, Paul George. The Pacers traded him to OKC in 2017, which eventually turned into Tyrese Haliburton for Indiana and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the Thunder. It’s like they’re mirror images of each other.
The Game That Changed Everything
Last June, these two squads dragged each other through a seven-game war. The Thunder eventually took the trophy, but let’s be real—the Pacers weren't "losers" in that series. They were the first team in years to actually make the Thunder look human. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a machine, averaging 31 points and 10 assists in the pivotal Game 5, but Indiana’s depth was terrifying.
Pascal Siakam was a nightmare for OKC’s thin front line. He put up 39 in Game 2 and basically forced Chet Holmgren to grow up in real-time. If you didn't watch that series, you missed some of the highest-level basketball played this decade. No luxury tax teams. No "super-teams" built via free agency. Just home-grown talent and smart trades.
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Why the Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Matchup Hits Different
Most NBA rivalries are built on hate. This one? It's built on pace. Indiana led the league in assist percentage last year. They move the ball like it’s a hot potato. Then you have OKC, who plays this weird, positionless style where everyone is 6'6" and can pass, shoot, and defend.
The Shai vs. Tyrese Problem
You’ve got two of the smartest guards in the world, but they play nothing alike.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a rhythm killer. He gets to his spots, waits for you to blink, and then hits a contested middy. He dropped 55 points on the Pacers earlier this season in a double-overtime thriller.
- Tyrese Haliburton is a visionary. He’s looking for the pass before the play even starts. The Pacers’ offense dies without him, which we saw when he struggled with that calf strain late in the Finals.
The contrast is wild. SGA is an individual scoring force who creates for others by drawing gravity. Haliburton is a floor general who creates scoring by manipulating gravity. Watching them trade punches is basically a 48-minute chess match.
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Misconceptions About the Small Market Label
People love to call this the "Small Market Finals," as if that’s a bad thing. Honestly, it's the healthiest thing to happen to the NBA in a long time. The Thunder won 68 games last year. 68! That’s legendary territory. They didn't do it by signing a superstar in Miami or LA. They did it by hitting on picks like Jalen Williams (who dropped 40 in Game 5) and Chet Holmgren.
Indiana did the same. They didn't wait for a savior; they traded for Siakam and trusted guys like Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. Nembhard, specifically, has become a "Thunder-killer." He has this knack for hitting huge shots whenever OKC starts to pull away.
What to Watch for in the Next Matchup
The upcoming game on January 23, 2026, at the Paycom Center is going to be heavy. Indiana is coming in looking for blood after the 2OT loss in October.
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- The Bench War: T.J. McConnell is the most annoying player in the league (in a good way). He completely flips the energy for Indiana. OKC counters with Alex Caruso and Lu Dort, who are basically defensive Terminators.
- Chet's Growth: Holmgren has to handle Siakam's physicality. In the Finals, Siakam bullied him at times. If Chet can hold his ground without help, the Thunder are unbeatable.
- Adjusting to the Pace: Indiana wants to score 130. OKC is happy to score 130, but they’d rather hold you to 105. Whoever dictates the speed wins.
Real Talk on the Injuries
We have to acknowledge the elephant in the room. Tyrese Haliburton’s health is the pivot point for this entire rivalry. After the torn Achilles news following Game 7, Indiana has had to reinvent themselves. They’ve stayed competitive because Rick Carlisle is a wizard, but they miss that Haliburton spark. Without him, the Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers dynamic shifts from a star-studded duel to a gritty, defensive grind.
Actionable Strategy for Fans and Bettors
If you’re watching this game or looking at the lines, keep a few things in mind.
- Watch the First Quarter: Indiana usually starts fast. If OKC is down by 10 early, don't panic. The Thunder are the kings of the "third-quarter avalanche."
- Check the Over/Under: These teams combined for 276 points in their last meeting. Unless the refs are calling it tight, expect a scoreboard explosion.
- The "Nembhard Factor": If Nembhard is aggressive early, Indiana covers the spread. If he’s passive, SGA will run away with it.
The reality is that Oklahoma City and Indiana are the blueprints. They’ve shown that you don't need a coastal zip code to build a dynasty. Whether it's the regular season or a high-stakes playoff rematch, this is the best version of basketball the NBA has to offer right now. Keep your eyes on the wing matchups—that's where the game is actually won.
Next time you're looking at the schedule, circle the Thunder and Pacers games. It's not just a game; it's a glimpse into where the league is heading.
To get the most out of the next matchup, keep a close eye on the injury reports for the Pacers' backcourt and the Thunder's rotation of bigs, as these late-breaking changes have historically swung the betting lines by as much as 4 or 5 points in this specific series.