Honestly, if you're a Penn State fan, just hearing the words "Ohio State" probably makes your eye twitch at this point. It’s one of those rivalries that doesn't feel like a rivalry to anyone outside of Central Pennsylvania because, well, one team usually wins. But that’s the thing about Ohio State vs Penn State—the final score almost never tells the whole story of the absolute cardiac event that takes place on the field.
We just watched the 2025 installment in Columbus, and it was more of the same. A 38-14 win for the Buckeyes that looked like a blowout on paper but felt like a grind-it-out fistfight for three quarters. It extended Ohio State's winning streak in this series to nine straight games. Nine. That’s a decade of dominance that has basically defined the modern Big Ten era.
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The vibes in State College are... complicated. James Franklin is no longer the head coach there—that's the big news of 2026—and a huge reason why he's at Virginia Tech now is because he couldn't crack the nut that is Ryan Day’s Buckeyes. He finished his Penn State tenure with a 1-10 record against Ohio State. In sports, that's what we call a "program ceiling."
The Stat That Actually Matters
Most people look at the 26-14 all-time lead Ohio State holds and think it’s just a mismatch. But look closer. Since 2014, almost half of these games have been decided by a single possession. We’re talking about a blocked field goal return in 2016 (the last time PSU won), a one-point heartbreaker in 2017, and a fourth-down stop in 2024 that quite literally moved the earth in Happy Valley.
The 2024 game was the peak of this "so close yet so far" energy. Penn State had the Buckeyes on the ropes. They had a 10-0 lead. They had the largest crowd in Beaver Stadium history screaming their lungs out. And then? A goal-line stand for the ages. Ohio State's defense stood up on four straight plays from the three-yard line. That’s the difference. Ohio State finds a way to win the two inches that matter, while Penn State has spent years finding creative ways to lose them.
Why Does This Keep Happening?
It’s easy to say "Ohio State has better players," and yeah, they usually do. They’ve got Jeremiah Smith, who is basically a cheat code at wide receiver, and Julian Sayin taking over at quarterback in 2025. But it's deeper than the recruiting rankings.
- The Psychological Wall: When you lose to the same team eight or nine times in a row, it gets in your head. You start playing not to lose. In that 2024 matchup, you could see the tension in Drew Allar’s throws once the Buckeyes took the lead.
- The "Big Game" Coaching Gap: Ryan Day gets a lot of flak for his record against Michigan, but against everyone else? He’s a machine. He's 6-0 against Penn State. He knows exactly how to neutralize their pass rush, even when guys like Abdul Carter are flying off the edge.
- Depth of Personnel: In the fourth quarter, Penn State’s starters are usually gassed. Ohio State is rotating in five-star sophomores who would be starters anywhere else in the country.
The 2025 game was a bit different. By then, the Buckeyes were the undisputed #1 team in the country. They didn't need a miracle fourth-down stop. They just bullied Penn State. It was the game that finally broke the "Franklin can win the big one" narrative once and for all.
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Breaking Down the Numbers (The Prose Version)
If you look at the history, the scoring is actually closer than the win-loss column suggests. Over the last eight meetings, the average margin of victory for Ohio State is only about seven points. That is wild. It means we are watching the most competitive "one-sided" rivalry in college football history.
Ohio State leads the series 14-7 in Columbus and 12-6 in State College. The only time Penn State really got the best of them in a neutral setting was the 1980 Fiesta Bowl. Since then? It’s been a sea of Scarlet and Gray.
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What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception is that this is a "friendly" rivalry. It's not. The fanbases genuinely don't like each other, but there’s a level of respect there because both programs are consistently top-10. Penn State is currently 7th all-time in victories; Ohio State is 2nd. This isn't a David vs. Goliath story. It’s Goliath vs. a slightly smaller Goliath who keeps tripping on his own shoelaces.
What Happens Now?
With the Big Ten expanding and the 12-team playoff format now firmly in place, the Ohio State vs Penn State game has changed. It used to be that the loser was effectively dead for the season. Now? Both teams can lose this game and still make a run for the national title. We saw it in 2024—both teams made the playoff despite the Buckeyes winning the head-to-head.
However, for Penn State to ever actually "arrive," they have to win this game. You can’t be a premier program if you’re a door mat for your neighbor.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
- Watch the Trench Play: In every single Ohio State victory over the last five years, they have won the line of scrimmage in the fourth quarter. If you're betting or analyzing the next matchup (scheduled for 2028, thanks to the new Big Ten scheduling rotation), look at the offensive line depth.
- Ignore the Early Lead: Penn State has led at halftime in several of these losses. Do not trust a 10-point Nittany Lion lead in the second quarter. The Buckeyes are a "counter-punch" team; they wait for you to make a mistake and then they bury you.
- Follow the Recruiting Trail: Watch where the top players in Pennsylvania go. When Penn State keeps the top kids in-state, they win. When Ohio State poaches them, the Buckeyes win. It’s that simple.
- Check the Schedule: With the "protected rivalry" status gone, these teams won't play every year anymore. This makes every meeting even more high-stakes because you don't get a "revenge" game next October.
The next few years will be fascinating for Penn State as they transition to a new coaching era. Whether they can finally tear down the scarlet wall remains the biggest question in the Big Ten. For now, the road to the conference trophy still runs through Columbus.