You’ve seen the jerseys. You know the history. Every time the Buckeyes and the Irish line up, it feels like the oxygen leaves the room for a second. But honestly, if you’re looking at ohio state notre dame predictions based on who has the better helmet stickers, you’re missing the actual story.
College football shifted under our feet in early 2025. When Ohio State walked out of Mercedes-Benz Stadium with a 34-23 victory over Notre Dame in the National Championship, it changed the math for this rivalry. Ryan Day finally got his ring. Marcus Freeman proved he could get to the doorstep. Now, as we look toward the next chapter of this saga, the landscape is even weirder than before.
The Post-Championship Hangover is Real
People love to bet on the "revenge" narrative. They think Notre Dame is just going to come out and steamroll everyone because they’re mad about losing the natty. Football doesn't usually work like that.
The Irish are in a total state of transition. Losing a guy like Riley Leonard hurts, but the real question is how CJ Carr handles the keys to the kingdom in year two of the Mike Denbrock era. Carr is the "it" factor. He’s got the arm, but does he have the poise when the Silver Bullets are staring him down?
Ohio State is facing its own mid-life crisis, or at least a roster overhaul. You can’t just lose Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs to the NFL and expect the machine to keep humming without a hiccup. Or can you? Brian Hartline’s wide receiver room is basically an assembly line of five-star talent. Even when a superstar leaves, the next guy—likely someone like Mylan Graham—is usually just as terrifying for a secondary.
Ohio State Notre Dame Predictions: The X-Factors
If you're trying to figure out who wins the next one, stop looking at the quarterback for a second. Look at the trenches.
- The O-Line Gap: Ohio State’s biggest weakness in their championship run was actually the interior line. They got away with it because Will Howard was a tank and the defense was historic.
- Notre Dame’s Secondary: This is where the Irish actually have an edge. They’ve recruited the defensive backfield better than almost anyone in the country over the last three cycles.
- The Coaching Chess Match: Marcus Freeman is 0-3 against his alma mater. That’s a heavy weight to carry. Ryan Day has the "big game" monkey off his back now, which makes him more dangerous. He’s not coaching scared anymore.
Why the 2025 National Championship Changed Everything
Before that game, the narrative was that Ohio State couldn't win the "big one" and Notre Dame couldn't beat the "big boys." Well, one of those died in Atlanta. The Buckeyes proved they could take a punch—remember they were down 7-0 early—and still systematically dismantle a top-tier defense.
Notre Dame’s defense actually held Ohio State to zero points in the first quarter of that game. That’s the blueprint. If you want to beat the Buckeyes, you have to make it a muddy, ugly, low-scoring affair. The problem? Ryan Day’s offense is built to eventually explode. It only takes two plays for a 3-0 lead to become a 17-3 deficit.
What Most People Miss About These Matchups
The betting public loves the over. They see "Ohio State" and think 50 points. But look at the last three meetings: 21-10, 17-14, and 34-23. These aren't Big 12 track meets from 2012. These are Big Ten-style brawls.
Jim Knowles has turned the Ohio State defense into a unit that refuses to give up the big play. They’ll give you the 4-yard hitch all day. They won't give you the 60-yard bomb. For a Notre Dame offense that sometimes struggles to put together 12-play drives, that’s a nightmare.
- The Travel Factor: Playing in South Bend is a different animal than a neutral site.
- The "Styles" Clash: Sonny Styles vs. the Notre Dame tight ends is the matchup that actually decides the game.
- Special Teams: People forget that a muffed punt almost cost the Buckeyes the 2023 game.
The Reality of the Transfer Portal Era
We’re seeing players jump sides now. Mylan Graham and Quincy Porter heading to South Bend? That’s wild. It adds a layer of "insider info" to the Irish locker room, but it also puts a massive target on those kids' backs when they see their old teammates across the line.
Honestly, the ohio state notre dame predictions you see on TV are usually too high-scoring. If Carr can’t find a rhythm early, the Irish defense will eventually tire out. They’re great, but no one can stay on the field for 40 minutes against the Buckeyes and not break.
Actionable Insights for the Next Matchup
If you’re looking to get ahead of the curve for the next meeting, keep an eye on these three specific areas:
- Monitor the Injury Report for the Buckeyes' Interior DL: If they are thin at tackle, Notre Dame’s power run game becomes a serious problem.
- Check CJ Carr’s Completion Percentage in the First Half: If he’s under 60%, the Irish aren't winning. They need the pass to set up the run, not the other way around.
- Follow the Line Movement: Historically, the Irish are great against the spread (ATS) when they are underdogs of more than 7 points against Big Ten teams.
The rivalry is no longer just about Midwestern pride; it’s about who owns the new era of the 12-team playoff. Ohio State has the crown, but Notre Dame has the hunger. Betting against Marcus Freeman indefinitely feels like a mistake, but betting against the talent factory in Columbus is even riskier.
Check the defensive depth charts three weeks before kickoff. That’s where the real winner is hidden.
🔗 Read more: Memorial Stadium: Why Broken Arrow Football Stadium is the Loudest Place in Oklahoma
Next Steps for Your Scouting:
- Review the 2025 National Championship tape to see how Jim Knowles disguised his late-game blitzes.
- Track the development of Julian Sayin; if he takes over the OSU offense, the vertical passing game becomes much more vertical than it was under Howard.
- Watch Notre Dame's early-season games specifically to see if their offensive line can protect Carr without help from a tight end.