You’ve seen the banners hanging in the Schottenstein Center, right? 1960. The Jerry Lucas and John Havlicek era. It feels like ancient history to a student walking across High Street today, but that ghost of a championship still haunts every single conversation about Ohio State basketball NCAA tournament expectations.
Honestly, being an Ohio State fan is a special kind of stress. You aren't just fighting for a win; you're fighting the shadow of a football program that eats all the oxygen in the room. But here’s the thing—the Buckeyes are currently in one of those "pivot" seasons where the bracketology feels like a daily heart attack.
The Jake Diebler Era: No More Interim Training Wheels
Let’s be real. Nobody expected Jake Diebler to pull a rabbit out of a hat the way he did when Chris Holtmann was shown the door. He didn't just win games; he won over the locker room. Now, in the 2025-26 season, the "interim" tag is long gone, and the honeymoon is officially over.
Diebler's current squad is sitting at 11-5 as of mid-January. It’s a weird record. They look like world-beaters when Bruce Thornton is cooking, then they turn around and drop a clunker against Washington. It’s that inconsistency that drives the "First Four Out" projections you see on every major sports site.
The Ohio State basketball NCAA tournament resume is basically a rollercoaster.
- The Good: A massive win over Kentucky at Madison Square Garden.
- The Bad: A frustrating loss to Nebraska where the defense looked like it was standing in quicksand.
- The Ugly: That double-overtime heartbreaker against Minnesota that still stings.
Why the Selection Committee Hates (and Loves) the Buckeyes
If the tournament started tomorrow, Ohio State would likely be sweating it out in Dayton. Most bracketologists, including Mike DeCourcy and the folks at On3, have them pegged as a "Last Four In" or "First Four Out" team.
Why? Because the Big Ten is a meat grinder this year. Michigan is playing out of their minds. Nebraska—yes, Nebraska—is actually a Tier 1 threat.
The committee looks at "Quad 1" wins. For Ohio State to feel safe, they need to stop relying on Thornton to bail them out every single possession. Devin Royal has stepped up, averaging nearly 14 points a game, but the frontcourt is where the tournament dreams either live or die. Adding Christoph Tilly from Santa Clara was supposed to fix the size issue, and while he’s been solid, he isn't exactly a rim-protector like the bigs of the Thad Matta era.
The Ghost of 2024-25
We have to talk about last year. 17-15 is not Ohio State basketball. Missing the dance altogether was a gut punch. That "sour taste" the athletic department mentioned in their season review? It hasn't gone away.
Last season was defined by one-possession games. Five of them in a row. You can’t make that up. If two of those bounces go the other way, they’re a 10-seed in the tournament. Instead, they stayed home.
What Actually Matters for a March Run
People obsess over the seed. Honestly, who cares? In the modern Ohio State basketball NCAA tournament history, some of their best runs came when they weren't the favorite. Remember the 2012 Final Four run? They had grit.
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This current team has a few "secret weapons" that might actually make them dangerous if they squeeze into the field:
- John Mobley Jr.’s Range: The kid is a flamethrower. If he gets hot, he can carry a team through a weekend single-handedly.
- Veteran Leadership: Bruce Thornton is a senior now. He’s seen the highs and the literal rock bottom of this program. That matters in March when the lights get too bright for freshmen.
- The "Nothing to Lose" Factor: Diebler has them playing fast. They aren't the "plodding" Big Ten team of the past. They’re 73rd in the country in scoring.
The Road to Selection Sunday
The schedule doesn't get easier. They’ve got UCLA and Michigan coming up at home. Those aren't just games; they’re resume-builders.
If they go .500 through the rest of the Big Ten slate, they’re probably in. If they slide, we’re looking at another year of NIT "what-ifs."
Actionable Strategy for Following the Bubble
If you're trying to track the Ohio State basketball NCAA tournament chances, don't just look at the win-loss column.
- Watch the NET Rankings: This is the NCAA’s Bible. A "bad" loss to a team like Penn State can drop them 15 spots.
- Root for Kentucky: Weird, I know. But because Ohio State beat them, every win Kentucky gets makes the Buckeyes' resume look shinier.
- Monitor the Injury Report: This team isn't deep. If Thornton or Royal goes down for even a week, the tournament dream likely evaporates.
The reality is that Ohio State is a program that should be in the tournament every single year. The resources are there. The talent is there. Now, it’s just about whether Jake Diebler can prove that last year’s late-season spark wasn't a fluke.
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Check the updated bracketology reports every Tuesday morning. By mid-February, we’ll know if this is a team destined for a deep March run or another quiet spring in Columbus. Keep an eye on the defensive efficiency metrics—if they can crack the top 100 in DRtg, they’re a lock.