He came out of Arizona as a giant with a massive wingspan and a bunch of skeptics whispering about his speed. They said he was too lanky. Maybe a bit stiff. Then the Carolina Panthers took him at number eight and everything changed. Now, Tetairoa McMillan is sitting at the top of the mountain, basically the heavy favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award after a season that honestly nobody saw coming for a franchise that’s been stuck in the mud for a decade.
Football is weird like that. One year you're watching C.J. Stroud or Jayden Daniels run away with it as dual-threat gods, and the next, it’s a lanky receiver in Charlotte and a journeyman-style quarterback in New Orleans fighting for the soul of the NFC South.
If you’ve been following the betting lines or just watching the Sunday afternoon chaos, you know this race has been a total rollercoaster. It wasn't always McMillan’s to lose. For a while, TreVeyon Henderson was looking like a godsend for the New England Patriots, and Emeka Egbuka was tearing it up in Tampa. But as we hit January 2026, the picture has cleared up—sorta.
The Case for Tetairoa McMillan (The Favorite)
McMillan didn't just play well; he dominated. We're talking about a guy who grabbed the "rookie triple crown." He led all first-year players in catches, yards, and touchdowns. That’s 70 receptions for 1,014 yards and seven scores. You don't just stumble into those numbers, especially in a Panthers offense that has been, let’s be real, pretty painful to watch in recent years.
What’s wild is how much he helped Bryce Young. We all thought Bryce might be a bust, but McMillan gave him a target the size of a billboard. He’s a silky smooth route runner who makes those "contested catches" look like he’s just playing catch in the backyard. Because of him, Carolina actually won the NFC South. Think about that. First playoff berth in eight years.
He’s the -175 favorite at the sportsbooks right now for a reason. He played all 17 games. He was consistent. While other rookies hit the "rookie wall" in November, McMillan just kept stacking 100-yard games.
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Tyler Shough and the New Orleans Surge
Then there's Tyler Shough. Talk about a wild card. If you told a Saints fan back in August that a rookie QB would have them on a four-game win streak to end the year, they would’ve asked who you were talking about. Shough didn't even start until Week 9.
But since he took over? Man, he’s been efficient.
- 69.6% completion rate.
- 1,997 passing yards in basically half a season.
- 9 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions.
He’s currently the second choice at +150. The big debate among the voters—the 50 media members who actually pick the Offensive Rookie of the Year—is whether eight starts are enough to beat out a guy who did it for four months straight. Some people love the "impact" Shough had. He saved the Saints' season. But the "volume" guys will point at McMillan’s 1,000 yards and say, "Sorry, Tyler, come back when you play a full schedule."
What Happened to the Early Favorites?
It’s easy to forget that back in October, this felt like Emeka Egbuka’s award. He was a lock. He had six touchdowns in his first nine games and looked like the next big thing for the Bucs. Then the wheels fell off. Egbuka went five straight games without cracking 65 yards. Tampa’s offense cratered, and he hasn't found the end zone since the middle of the season.
And then there’s TreVeyon Henderson up in New England. He’s been a beast lately. He’s got 773 rushing yards and was the favorite for a hot minute in December. If the Patriots had won a few more games, maybe he’s higher than +1000 right now. But being a running back on a losing team is a tough way to win hardware in 2026.
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The "Quarterback Bias" is Real
We have to talk about the Jayden Daniels effect. Last year, Daniels won this award in a total landslide. He had 31 total touchdowns and nearly 900 rushing yards. He was a human highlight reel. Before him, it was C.J. Stroud.
Voters love quarterbacks. It’s the most important position on the field, so when a rookie QB like Jaxson Dart or Tyler Shough shows even a glimmer of greatness, the media loses its mind. Jaxson Dart actually led all rookie QBs in rushing yards (487) and rushing touchdowns (9). He’s got a 91.7 passer rating for the Giants. In many other years, Dart is the runaway winner.
But this year, the sheer production from a wide receiver like McMillan is making it hard to just hand the trophy to the nearest quarterback. It reminds me of 2021 when Ja'Marr Chase beat out Mac Jones. Sometimes a receiver is just so undeniably better than the field that the "QB bonus" doesn't matter.
Why This Award Matters So Much
The Offensive Rookie of the Year isn't just a plastic trophy and a nice suit at the NFL Honors show. It changes the trajectory of a franchise. Look at what it did for the Commanders with Daniels. It signals to free agents and coaches that "Hey, we actually have a cornerstone piece here."
For the Panthers, McMillan winning would be the ultimate validation of their rebuild. For the Saints, it would mean they finally found a post-Drew Brees answer, even if it came from an unexpected place.
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Surprising Snubs and Stat Junkies
Every year, someone gets screwed. In 2024, people were screaming about Bucky Irving not even getting a nomination despite 1,122 rushing yards. This year, it might be Ashton Jeanty. The guy ran for 975 yards behind a Raiders offensive line that was basically a collection of turnstiles. He was hit at the line on 52% of his runs. That’s insane. If he played for the Cowboys or the Niners, he’d be the favorite.
Predicting the Final Vote
When the AP NFL Honors happens in February, expect a tight race. The "Eye Test" people love McMillan. The "Value" people love Shough. The "Stat Nerds" are looking at Jaxson Dart’s EPA (Expected Points Added).
But honestly? It feels like McMillan’s year. He’s the first rookie receiver to really feel like a "true WR1" from the first snap. He didn't just have a good rookie season; he had a top-10 receiver season, period.
If you’re looking to follow the final stretch, keep an eye on these specific metrics that the voters usually obsess over:
- Total Touchdowns: McMillan has 7, but Shough’s pace is higher.
- Clutch Factor: Did the player help their team reach the playoffs? (Advantage: McMillan).
- Durability: Did they play the whole season? (Major advantage: McMillan).
The 2025 rookie class was supposed to be "okay," but it turned out to be legendary. Whether it’s McMillan, Shough, or a late surge from Henderson, the league is in good hands.
Next Steps for the Fan and Analyst
To stay ahead of the curve as the NFL Honors approach, you should verify the final Week 18 stats for Tetairoa McMillan and Tyler Shough specifically. Look for "Advanced Receiving Success Rate" for McMillan, as voters are increasingly using PFF-style metrics to separate candidates in close races. You can also track the "Pepsi Zero Sugar NFL Rookie of the Year" fan vote, which often serves as a precursor to the AP's more formal announcement.