The race for the offensive rookie of the year nfl award usually feels like a foregone conclusion by mid-November. Most years, a hot-shot quarterback from a top-five pick just coasts into the honors because, well, they touch the ball every play. But 2025 was weird. It was gritty. It didn't follow the script at all.
Honestly, if you told me back in August that a wide receiver in Carolina would be the one to finally break the quarterback stranglehold on this trophy, I’d have probably asked if Bryce Young suddenly turned into 2011 Cam Newton. He didn't. Instead, a kid named Tetairoa McMillan basically decided to put the entire Panthers offense on his back and carry them into the postseason.
The McMillan Factor: Breaking the Mold
It’s hard to overstate how much Tetairoa McMillan dominated the conversation this season. He wasn't just "good for a rookie." He was elite by any standard. By the time the clock hit zero in Week 18 against the Buccaneers, McMillan had racked up 70 catches for 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns.
Think about that for a second.
Carolina hasn't exactly been a wide receiver factory lately. Yet, here is this 6-foot-5 target from Arizona, winning the "triple crown" for rookie wideouts. He led all first-year players in catches, yards, and scores. Betting markets aren't always the perfect truth, but when DraftKings lists a guy at -20000 to win, the conversation is pretty much over. He’s the guy.
He didn't just pad stats in garbage time either. McMillan was the primary reason Bryce Young looked like a functional NFL starter again. He moved the chains. He won 50/50 balls. Most importantly, he gave that franchise their first playoff berth in eight years. That kind of "winning impact" is exactly what the 50 members of the Associated Press look for when they cast their ballots.
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The Quarterback Quandary: Why Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough Fell Short
Usually, this award is a quarterback's to lose. Just look at the history: Jayden Daniels in 2024, C.J. Stroud in 2023. We’ve become conditioned to expect a signal-caller to take the stage at NFL Honors.
This year? The path was messy.
Jaxson Dart had his moments with the Giants. He’s got that "it" factor, but missing time mid-season with a concussion really stalled his momentum. He finished strong—throwing two scores to beat the Cowboys in the finale—but a 4-8 record in his starts is a tough sell for OROY voters.
Then there’s Tyler Shough in New Orleans. For a while there in December, it looked like he might actually steal the offensive rookie of the year nfl award. He was efficient. He had the Saints offense humming. But he only started 10 games after sitting behind Spencer Rattler early on. In a close race, volume matters. Throwing a back-breaking pick against the Falcons in Week 18 didn't help his case either. It’s hard to win a season-long award when your "season" only really started in October.
Historically Speaking: RBs Used to Own This
It's kind of wild to look back at how much the value of this award has shifted. If we were standing in 1980, we wouldn't even be talking about receivers or quarterbacks. Between 1967 and 2000, running backs won the award a staggering 25 times. It was a ground-and-pound league.
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The list of past winners reads like a Hall of Fame induction ceremony:
- Jim Brown (1957) — The blueprint.
- Barry Sanders (1989) — Pure electricity.
- Emmitt Smith (1990) — The model of consistency.
- Randy Moss (1998) — One of the few receivers to actually break through back then.
But since 2010, the trend has flipped. We've seen 10 quarterbacks take the title compared to only four running backs and four wide receivers. McMillan winning in 2025 signifies a return to the "skill position" dominance, but through the air rather than on the ground.
The Dark Horses That Almost Made It Interesting
We can't talk about the 2025 class without mentioning TreVeyon Henderson. The Patriots found a gem there. Henderson was actually the betting favorite after Week 15 after he absolutely gutted the Bills' defense.
Then, the injury bug bit.
A late-season ankle issue sidelined him during the most critical voting window. He still finished with over 900 rushing yards, which is phenomenal, but in the eyes of the AP voters, availability is the best ability.
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Then you have the tight ends. Tyler Warren in Indianapolis and Harold Fannin Jr. both had seasons that, in a weaker year, would have garnered serious first-place votes. Warren actually had more catches than McMillan! But tight ends rarely win this. The last one to truly challenge the status quo was probably Mike Ditka back in 1961. It’s a tough hill to climb.
How the Winner is Actually Chosen
Don't get it confused with the "Pepsi Rookie of the Year"—that’s a fan vote. The real, official offensive rookie of the year nfl award is handed out by the Associated Press.
Here’s the deal:
A panel of 50 sports journalists who cover the league daily submit a tiered ballot. They don't just pick one name. They rank their top five. A first-place vote gets you five points, second place gets four, and so on. This system was designed to prevent a "spoiler" from winning just because two top candidates split the vote.
Usually, the winner is announced during the "NFL Honors" show, which is the big glitzy gala held the Thursday before the Super Bowl. For 2026, that’s happening on February 5th at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco.
Actionable Insights for NFL Fans
If you're looking to understand who will dominate the 2026 race, or if you're just trying to keep up with your dynasty fantasy league, keep these points in mind:
- Draft Capital Isn't Everything: While McMillan was a top-10 pick (No. 8 overall), we often see guys like Dak Prescott (4th round) or Alvin Kamara (3rd round) win. Look for opportunity over draft position.
- The "Playoff Push" Narrative: Voters love a winner. If a rookie receiver or QB helps a struggling team make the playoffs—like McMillan did for Carolina—they gain a massive edge over players with better stats on losing teams.
- Watch the 1,000-Yard Threshold: For receivers and backs, 1,000 yards is the "magic number" that validates a season in the eyes of the national media.
- Quarterback Bias is Real but Fading: Don't assume the first QB drafted will win. The league is becoming so pass-heavy that elite WR prospects now have a much more level playing field than they did a decade ago.
The 2025 season proved that the rookie landscape is changing. It's no longer just a "best quarterback" award. It’s about who truly changes the trajectory of their franchise. Right now, that’s Tetairoa McMillan’s world; everyone else is just playing in it.