Let's be honest. Checking the odds to make NHL playoffs in mid-January is basically a form of self-inflicted psychological torture for about half the hockey world. You refresh the standings, look at the games in hand, and try to convince yourself that a four-game winning streak in February will fix everything.
It rarely does.
By the time the calendar hits January 15, the "math" has already started to harden like bad ice. We aren’t just guessing anymore. We have a half-season of data, injury reports that look like pharmacy receipts, and a very clear picture of who is actually driving the bus versus who is just along for the ride.
The 2025-26 season has been particularly weird. We’ve got the Colorado Avalanche playing like they’re in a video game with the sliders turned all the way up, while the Florida Panthers—the back-to-back defending champs—are currently gasping for air near the bottom of the Atlantic. It’s a mess. A beautiful, high-speed, 200-foot mess.
The Unforgiving Reality of the Standings
If you want to know what the numbers are saying right now, you have to look at the point totals and the projected finish. Hockey is a game of "loser points" and overtime luck, which makes the climb twice as hard as it looks.
In the Western Conference, things are surprisingly lopsided. The Colorado Avalanche are sitting at a 100% probability to make the dance. Honestly, they could probably play their AHL affiliate for the next month and still cruise in. They’ve won 33 of their first 45 games. That isn't a hot streak; it’s a dominant regime.
👉 See also: Calendario de la H: Todo lo que debes saber sobre cuando juega honduras 2025 y el camino al Mundial
Then you have the Central Division battle. The Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild are effectively locks at this point, both holding over a 98% chance. If you’re a fan of the St. Louis Blues or the Winnipeg Jets, I’m sorry. The math is brutal. The Jets have plummeted to an 18% chance after a disastrous stretch, and despite their Presidents' Trophy win last year, the loss of Nikolaj Ehlers has left a hole they can't seem to plug.
The Pacific Division Chaos
The Pacific is where the real drama lives. The Vegas Golden Knights are the clear alpha, boasting a 99% chance to qualify. But look at the scrap for the remaining spots:
- Edmonton Oilers: 92% (McDavid is on a 17-game point streak, so yeah, they’re fine).
- Los Angeles Kings: 72% (Slumping but still holding onto a projection of 91 points).
- Utah Mammoth: 73% (The new kids in town are actually doing it).
- San Jose Sharks: 42% (A massive leap from last year, but still a coin flip).
Basically, if you aren't in the top three by now, you're praying for a collapse from a team that has Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel. Good luck with that.
The East: Where Bluebloods Go to Die
The Eastern Conference is where the "traditional" powers are currently face-planting. The New York Rangers are at a 1% chance. Read that again. One percent. They’ve lost five straight and can’t seem to find the back of the net. Even the Boston Bruins, after firing Jim Montgomery earlier in the season, are fighting for their lives with a 54-point total that keeps them right on the bubble.
Tracking the Atlantic and Metro
The Tampa Bay Lightning are the story here. They have a 100% chance to make the playoffs and recently ripped off an 11-game winning streak. They look revitalized. Behind them, the Montreal Canadiens are the surprise of the year. Led by Nick Suzuki, they have a 72% chance to make it back to the postseason.
✨ Don't miss: Caitlin Clark GPA Iowa: The Truth About Her Tippie College Grades
Over in the Metropolitan, the Carolina Hurricanes remain the gold standard. They have a 95% probability and are projected to finish with 101 points. But the real "wait, what?" moment is the Washington Capitals. Despite everyone predicting a massive regression, they are hanging in there with a 54% chance, largely fueled by Alex Ovechkin’s chase for 1,000 career goals.
Why the Odds to Make NHL Playoffs Shift So Fast
The biggest mistake fans make is ignoring the "strength of schedule" factor. Some teams have padded their stats against the bottom-feeders early on. Others, like the New Jersey Devils (currently at 41%), have faced a gauntlet of top-tier opponents.
Injuries are the other silent killer. Look at the Florida Panthers. When Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk went down, their odds to make NHL playoffs cratered. They are sitting at a measly 51 points through 45 games. For a team that won the Cup last June, being a wild-card bubble team is a massive wake-up call.
We also have to talk about the Olympic break. In February 2026, the league is shutting down for the Milano Cortina Games. This is a massive variable. A team that is hot in January might lose all momentum sitting on a beach for two weeks, while a team with veteran leaders might use that rest to fuel a late-season surge.
What Most People Get Wrong About Projections
Public models like HockeyStats or Daily Faceoff are great, but they don't account for the "desperation factor." Late in the season, teams out of the race start trading away their best assets for picks. This makes the schedule easier for the bubble teams.
🔗 Read more: Barry Sanders Shoes Nike: What Most People Get Wrong
- The 95-Point Rule: Historically, 95 points is the magic number. If your team is on pace for 88, they need to play .700 hockey for the rest of the season. That is incredibly hard.
- Regulation Wins (RW): This is the first tiebreaker. The New York Islanders have a decent point total, but their low RW count means they lose almost every tiebreaking scenario.
- The Goalie Factor: If your starter gets a groin strain in March, your 80% playoff probability goes to 20% overnight. Ask the Vancouver Canucks, who are currently sitting at 0.2% because their crease has been a revolving door.
How to Actually Use This Information
If you're looking at the odds to make NHL playoffs to place a bet or just to manage your expectations, stop looking at the "points" column. Look at "points percentage" and "remaining strength of schedule."
For example, the Buffalo Sabres are finally showing life. They’ve won 8 of their last 10. Their 14-year drought is the longest in sports, and while they only have a 33% chance right now, their trajectory is pointing straight up. They are the "chaos" team that could ruin someone else's spring.
On the flip side, be wary of the Pittsburgh Penguins. They have a 48% chance, but they’ve lost three straight and the roster is the oldest in the league. They are living on borrowed time and power-play goals.
What to Watch Next
The next three weeks are the most important part of the season. Once we hit the Olympic break, the "sellers" will be identified. Keep an eye on the following:
- The Florida/Boston Bubble: One of these heavyweights is likely going to miss out.
- The Utah Mammoth Story: If they survive the next ten games, they’re likely in.
- The Ovechkin Factor: Washington’s energy is tied entirely to his goal-scoring. If he hits a slump, the team falls with him.
The math is cruel, but it's also the only thing that doesn't lie in January. If your team is below a 30% chance today, start looking at the 2026 Draft prospects—specifically Gavin McKenna. He's the real prize for the losers.
Check the updated standings every Tuesday morning. That’s usually when the most recent "projection" models finish crunching the weekend's data. If your team hasn't moved up by the time the Olympic torch is lit in Italy, it’s probably time to pack it in for the summer.