Everyone is already looking at 2028. It’s barely 2026, the midterms haven't even happened yet, and people are obsessing over the odds of winning presidency. Honestly, it's a bit wild. We’re over two years out from the actual primaries, but if you look at the betting markets like Polymarket or Kalshi, the money is already moving.
Betting on politics isn't just for degens anymore. It’s becoming a "wisdom of the crowd" indicator that some people trust more than traditional polling. Why? Because people hate being wrong when their own cash is on the line.
Right now, J.D. Vance is the name at the top of the list. As the sitting Vice President in 2026, he’s got the "incumbency-lite" advantage. Most books have him sitting around a 27% to 28% chance of winning the whole thing in 2028. That might sound low, but in a field this crowded and this early, it’s a massive lead.
The frontrunners and the longshots
Usually, the sitting VP is the heir apparent. But politics is messy. On the Democratic side, Gavin Newsom is basically the shadow frontrunner. He’s hovering around 19% to 23% depending on which market you check. It's a classic California versus the world narrative.
Then you have the "outsider" factor. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is showing up with roughly 7% to 10% odds. That’s higher than some seasoned governors. It tells you that the markets are betting on a base-driven election rather than a centrist one.
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Current snapshot of the 2028 landscape
- J.D. Vance (R): 28%
- Gavin Newsom (D): 23%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D): 7%
- Marco Rubio (R): 3.5%
- Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson: 4.3% (Yes, seriously)
Wait, back up. The Rock?
Yeah. He actually has higher odds than Marco Rubio in some markets. It sounds like a meme, but it reflects a deep-seated reality in American politics: celebrity is a currency. After the 2016 and 2024 cycles, the markets no longer dismiss famous outsiders. If you have 100% name recognition, you have a non-zero chance of winning.
Why the odds of winning presidency shift so fast
Polls are a snapshot of how people feel. Betting odds are a prediction of what people will do.
When a major policy succeeds or a scandal breaks, the odds react in minutes. We saw this in 2024 after the first debate; the markets moved way faster than the pollsters could call households. In 2026, the big mover will be the midterm elections. If the GOP holds the House and Senate, Vance’s odds will likely skyrocket. If there’s a "blue wave" response to the current administration, Newsom or a dark horse like Josh Shapiro (currently around 7%) could see their numbers climb.
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There's also the "ineligible" factor. You’ll occasionally see Donald Trump or Elon Musk on these lists. Trump is term-limited. Musk isn't a natural-born citizen. Yet, they still pull 1% to 3% odds. This isn't because the bettors are stupid; it’s a "black swan" bet. People are wagering on constitutional changes or weird legal loopholes that probably won't happen, but the "what if" is enough to attract capital.
The problem with early numbers
Let’s be real: being the favorite in January 2026 is often a curse. Remember Jeb Bush? Remember Rudy Giuliani? Early favorites get scrutinized until there’s nothing left.
Vance has to navigate being the face of the current administration’s 2026 midterm performance. If the economy dips or foreign policy gets rocky, his odds of winning presidency will take the first hit. Newsom has the opposite problem. He has to stay relevant without looking like he's rooting for the country to fail just to make the current administration look bad.
Then you have the "Governors' Club." People like Gretchen Whitmer and Andy Beshear are sitting lower in the odds (around 2% to 3%), but they are the ones to watch. They have high approval ratings in swing states. If the national mood shifts toward "competent administrator" rather than "culture warrior," those 40/1 longshots start looking like very smart bets.
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What to actually watch for in 2026
If you're trying to track this like an expert, ignore the national favorability polls for a bit. Focus on these three things instead:
- Midterm seat retention: If the incumbent party defies the usual "midterm slump," the VP becomes nearly unbeatable in the primary.
- The "Vegas" spread on outsiders: If celebrities like Mark Cuban or Matthew McConaughey start moving from 100/1 to 50/1, it means the donor class is looking for an escape hatch.
- State-level approval in PA, MI, and WI: These three states effectively decide the presidency. A candidate who is popular there but unknown nationally is a much better bet than a famous candidate everyone in those states hates.
Prediction markets are a tool, not a crystal ball. They represent the collective intelligence (and sometimes the collective delusions) of thousands of people putting their money where their mouths are. They are sensitive to noise. A single viral tweet can move the needle 2%, even if it changes zero votes on the ground.
Don't bet the house on J.D. Vance just because he's at 28% today. In 2022, Ron DeSantis was the betting favorite for 2024 for a significant stretch. We saw how that ended. The real value in looking at the odds of winning presidency right now is seeing who the "smart money" is afraid of—and who they're starting to ignore.
Actionable insights for following the race
- Monitor "Liquid" Markets: Check sites like Kalshi or Polymarket rather than just news articles. The volume of money traded tells you how "real" the price is.
- Watch the 2026 Midterm Results: Treat November 2026 as the first real primary. The winners of those gubernatorial and senate races will be the 2028 frontrunners by Christmas.
- Look for Divergence: When a poll says one thing and the betting market says another, the betting market is usually accounting for something the poll is missing, like the Electoral College math versus the popular vote.
The landscape will look completely different in twelve months. If history is any guide, someone currently at 1% odds will be in the top three by this time next year. Keep an eye on the governors. They usually play the long game better than the folks in D.C.