If you’ve spent any time looking at the odds of relegation Premier League lately, you’ve probably noticed that the bookies aren’t just pessimistic about certain teams—they’ve basically already planned the funeral. It is mid-January 2026. The winter wind is howling, the transfer window is a chaotic mess of "will-they-won't-they" sagas, and the bottom of the table looks like a disaster movie.
Honestly, the math is brutal.
Take Wolverhampton Wanderers. At the time of writing, Wolves are sitting on a measly 7 points after 21 matches. One win. Just one. When you look at the Opta Supercomputer or the latest lines from DraftKings, they’re giving Wolves a 99.31% chance of going down. That’s not a "battle." That’s a foregone conclusion. But as any seasoned fan knows, the Premier League has a funny way of making "certainties" look stupid. Remember Leicester in 2015? Exactly.
The Three-Horse Race Nobody Wants to Win
The current market suggests the trapdoor is already opening for three specific clubs. It’s not just about who’s bad; it’s about who has actually stopped functioning as a cohesive unit.
Wolverhampton Wanderers (The Absolute Longshots)
Rob Edwards took over the reins recently, and while there’s been a tiny "new manager bounce" with three straight draws, they are still 14 points away from safety. To survive, they basically need to play like a Top 4 side for the rest of the season. The odds of that happening? Basically zero. The market has them at -5000 (or 1/50 in fractional terms). You’d have to bet your house just to win a fiver.
Burnley (The 100-Point Hangover)
Burnley are a fascinating case study in why the Championship and the Premier League are two different sports. They came up with 100 points last season. They looked invincible. Now? They’ve got 13 points. Scott Parker’s side has gone 12 matches without a win. The bookmakers have them at a 94.08% probability of relegation. They keep holding teams like Manchester United to draws—like that 2-2 thriller last Wednesday—but draws don't pay the bills when you're eight points adrift of 17th.
🔗 Read more: Caitlin Clark GPA Iowa: The Truth About Her Tippie College Grades
West Ham United (The Massive Outlier)
This is where the odds of relegation Premier League get spicy. West Ham shouldn't be here. On paper, they have a squad that should be fighting for Europe. Instead, they are 18th, seven points from safety, and Lucas Paqueta is reportedly trying to force a move to Flamengo. Nuno Espirito Santo is under immense pressure, and the club just brought in Paco Jémez as a first-team coach to try and inject some life into a stagnant offense. If they lose the "El Sackico" against Thomas Frank’s Tottenham this weekend, those 2/9 odds for the drop are going to shorten even further.
Who Is Actually Safe? (The Sunderland Surprise)
Most people expected the three promoted teams—Leeds, Burnley, and Sunderland—to go straight back down. That’s what happened in 2024/25 with Leicester, Ipswich, and Southampton. History was supposed to repeat itself.
Sunderland didn't get the memo.
Régis Le Bris has turned the Black Cats into the surprise package of the season. They’re sitting 10th with 30 points. They aren't just "safe"; they are technically closer to the Champions League spots (5 points away) than the relegation zone. Because of this, their relegation odds have drifted out to +1200. If you bet on them to go down now, you’re basically betting on a total atmospheric collapse.
Leeds United are also doing a decent job of defying the "promoted team" curse. They are 16th with 22 points. Daniel Farke’s men just came off a seven-game unbeaten run, including a win over Chelsea. While they aren't "safe-safe," their 7.27% relegation probability feels much more manageable than the nightmare unfolding at the London Stadium.
💡 You might also like: Barry Sanders Shoes Nike: What Most People Get Wrong
The "Magic Number" Myth
You’ll hear commentators talk about "40 points" like it’s a holy commandment. It isn't.
In the 2024/25 season, the "best" relegated team (Leicester) only had 25 points. The floor is dropping. Because the top teams—Arsenal, City, Villa—are so dominant, they are vacuuming up all the available points. This means 32 or 33 points might actually be enough to stay up this year.
Current Relegation Probability (Data via Opta & Major Bookmakers):
- Wolves: 99.3%
- Burnley: 94.1%
- West Ham: 89.1%
- Nottingham Forest: 9.1%
- Leeds United: 7.3%
The gap between West Ham (14 points) and Nottingham Forest (21 points) is the grand canyon of this season's table. If Forest or Leeds can pick up two more wins in February, the "Big Three" to go down might be locked in before we even hit March.
Why the Odds Shift (And How to Read Them)
Betting odds aren't just a reflection of how good a team is. They are a reflection of where the money is going and what the "Supercomputer" thinks about the remaining schedule.
📖 Related: Arizona Cardinals Depth Chart: Why the Roster Flip is More Than Just Kyler Murray
- The January Window: If West Ham sells Paqueta and doesn't replace his creativity, their odds will plummet.
- Managerial Changes: Tottenham and West Ham are both flirting with the "sack" button. A new manager often brings a 3-game spike in performance that can flip the odds overnight.
- Injuries to Key Men: For a team like Nottingham Forest, an injury to Chris Wood or Morgan Gibbs-White would instantly make them favorites for the drop.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Bottom Three
The biggest misconception is that the teams at the bottom "don't care" or "aren't trying."
Watch Wolves. They are fighting. They just lack the quality in both boxes. Burnley has the structure, but they can't score. West Ham has the quality, but the structure has dissolved. Relegation isn't usually caused by one thing; it's a "perfect storm" of bad recruitment, poorly timed injuries, and a loss of confidence that turns every 1-0 lead into a 1-2 loss.
Actionable Insights for the Rest of the Season
If you're tracking the battle for survival, keep your eyes on these three specific indicators:
- The "Six-Pointer" Schedule: West Ham vs. Nottingham Forest is coming up soon. That single match is worth more to the odds than any other game in their season.
- Goal Difference: It’s the "extra point." West Ham’s -21 GD is a massive anchor around their necks. Even if they tie on points with Leeds (-8), they’re effectively a point behind.
- The 30-Point Mark: Once a team hits 30, history suggests they have an 85% chance of survival in the current "low-point" era. Sunderland is already there. Leeds and Forest are racing for it.
The race to avoid the drop is often more compelling than the title race because the stakes are existential. For clubs like West Ham, the odds of relegation Premier League represent a potential £100 million loss in revenue. It's not just sport; it's a financial cliff. And right now, the Hammers are dangling by their fingernails.
Next Steps for Tracking the Drop:
Keep a close watch on the "Points Per Game" (PPG) of the bottom five. If Wolves don't double their current 0.33 PPG by the end of February, they will be the first team officially relegated in the 2025/26 season. Check the injury reports for Nottingham Forest's key attackers before placing any "To Stay Up" bets, as their depth is significantly thinner than the teams surrounding them.