Let’s be real for a second. If you’re looking at the odds of Raiders winning Super Bowl right now, you’re either a die-hard member of the Silver and Black who bleeds commitment to excellence, or you’re a chaos bettor looking for a massive payday.
There’s no middle ground.
As we sit in early 2026, the betting landscape for Las Vegas is, well, pretty grim. Most major sportsbooks like FanDuel and BetMGM have the Raiders sitting at +100000. To put that in perspective, a $100 bet would net you a cool $100,000. But before you go mortgaging the house on a "Vegas in Vegas" Super Bowl miracle, we need to talk about why those numbers are so high—and what actually needs to happen for them to shift.
The Raiders just wrapped up a brutal 3-14 season. It wasn't pretty. They’ve fired Pete Carroll (yes, that happened), and the team is currently in the middle of a massive identity crisis. But here’s the kicker: they hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The Current State of the Raiders Super Bowl Odds
When you see +100000, the math tells you the Raiders have a 0.1% chance of winning it all. It’s basically the "So you're saying there's a chance" meme from Dumb and Dumber.
Why so low?
- Quarterback Purgatory: Geno Smith and Kenny Pickett didn't provide the spark the front office hoped for.
- Coaching Vacancy: As of mid-January 2026, the Raiders are still interviewing a long list of candidates, including Mike LaFleur and Davis Webb.
- Statistical Bottom Feeders: Last season, the offense ranked 29th in points per game. You can’t win a Super Bowl if you can’t find the end zone.
Honestly, the oddsmakers aren't being mean; they're being realistic. Winning a championship requires a top-tier roster and a cohesive coaching staff. Right now, the Raiders have a lot of "pieces" but no finished puzzle.
The Fernando Mendoza Factor
Here is where it gets interesting. Every Raiders fan is staring at the No. 1 pick. The consensus? Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman-winning quarterback from Indiana.
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If the Raiders draft Mendoza, the odds of Raiders winning Super Bowl will almost certainly jump. Why? Because the league loves a savior. Mendoza has that "it" factor—a massive arm and the kind of mobility that gives defensive coordinators nightmares.
"If the Raiders are thinking about making Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza the No. 1 overall pick... why not think about pairing him with [his college coach] Curt Cignetti?" — Mike Florio, NBC Sports
Pairing a rookie QB with his college coach is a bold move, but the Raiders are known for bold (and sometimes head-scratching) moves. Even if they don't go the Cignetti route, a talent like Mendoza under center changes the math.
Roster Bright Spots: More Than Just Maxx Crosby
It's easy to look at 3-14 and think the cupboard is bare. It isn't.
Maxx Crosby is still a Martian. Even in a down year for the team, he put up 10 sacks and 28 tackles for loss. He’s the soul of that defense. Then you’ve got Devin White, who stayed healthy in 2025 and set a franchise record with 174 tackles.
On the offensive side, Ashton Jeanty proved he belongs. He broke Josh Jacobs' rookie scrimmage yards record with 1,321 yards. That’s elite production. And don't forget Brock Bowers. When he's healthy, he's arguably the best young tight end in the game. He led the team in receptions and touchdowns despite missing five games.
So, you have a superstar pass rusher, a record-breaking linebacker, a dynamic young running back, and a Pro Bowl tight end. That's a foundation.
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The $90 Million Question
Money talks. This offseason, the Raiders are sitting on roughly $90 million in salary cap space.
That is an insane amount of flexibility.
They can go out and buy a secondary. They can solidify the offensive line. They can bring in a veteran wide receiver to help whoever is playing quarterback. Most teams are struggling to keep their stars; the Raiders are in a position to steal everyone else's.
If they spend that money wisely—and that's a big "if" given their track record—those +100000 odds will start shrinking fast. Betting markets react to talent acquisitions. If the Raiders land two or three big-name free agents in March, you might see those odds move to +6000 or +8000 before the draft even starts.
What Most People Get Wrong About Raiders Betting
People think betting on the Raiders is a "homer" move. Usually, it is. But the odds of Raiders winning Super Bowl are currently so inflated that there’s actually some objective "value" there, purely from a hedging perspective.
In sports betting, "value" doesn't mean a team is likely to win. It means the payout is higher than the actual risk warrants. Is a 3-14 team likely to win the Super Bowl? No. But are they really 1,000-to-1 underdogs when they have the #1 pick and $90 million in cap space? Probably not. They should probably be closer to 500-to-1.
The Realistic Timeline
Let’s be blunt. A rookie quarterback rarely wins a Super Bowl. It hasn't happened. Even the greats like Mahomes or Brady took a year or two to really cook.
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If you're betting on the Raiders to win this year, you're betting on:
- A rookie QB (likely Mendoza) having the greatest debut season in NFL history.
- A new head coach hitting a home run in year one.
- The defense making a massive leap from bottom-tier to top-10.
It's a tall order.
Actionable Insights for Raiders Fans and Bettors
If you’re looking to get some action on the Silver and Black, don't just blindly throw money at the Super Bowl futures.
- Wait for the Coaching Hire: The market will react to who they pick. A "hot" name like Davis Webb or Kevin Stefanski might shorten the odds immediately.
- Watch the Win Totals: Instead of the Super Bowl, look at the "Over/Under" on season wins once they come out. If the line is set at 6.5, the "Over" is a much more realistic path to profit.
- Monitor Free Agency: $90 million can buy a lot of wins. If the Raiders prioritize the offensive line, it’s a sign they are serious about protecting their new QB.
- Draft Day Movement: If they trade down from No. 1 to get more picks, it shows they are in a long-term rebuild. If they stay and take Mendoza, they are trying to win now.
The odds of Raiders winning Super Bowl reflect a team at rock bottom. But in the NFL, rock bottom is often the best place to start building a skyscraper. With a potential franchise QB on the horizon and a mountain of cash to spend, the Raiders are the most volatile team in the league.
Keep an eye on the coaching search. Once that first domino falls, the rest of the 2026 season will start to take shape. Whether it ends in a parade down the Las Vegas Strip or another top-5 draft pick remains to be seen.
Next Steps for Your Strategy:
- Check the current NFL Draft Order updates to ensure the Raiders haven't moved their No. 1 spot.
- Follow the Raiders Coaching Tracker daily; the hiring of a coordinator versus a veteran HC will drastically change the betting lines.
- Compare the +100000 line across different sportsbooks, as some may offer "Early Bird" specials with better cash-out options.