Checking the ticker for Occidental Petroleum (OXY) lately feels a bit like watching a high-stakes chess match where the players are moving at half-speed. If you’re looking at the occidental stock price today, you’ll see it hovering around $42.70. It’s down about 1% from the last close, but that tiny wiggle doesn't even begin to tell the real story of what’s happening behind the scenes at one of the most talked-about energy companies in the world.
Honestly, the market is acting a little confused. On one hand, you've got traditional oil prices cooling off, with Brent crude projected to average around $56 this year. That’s a tough environment for a company that makes its bread and butter from drilling. On the other hand, Warren Buffett just basically bought a whole division of the company, and their massive "carbon vacuum" project in Texas is about to go live.
It's a weird mix of old-school fossil fuel dread and "new energy" hope.
The $9.7 Billion Elephant in the Room
The biggest news hitting the wires right now isn't about oil at all. It’s about chemicals. Berkshire Hathaway—led by Greg Abel now that the legendary Warren Buffett has officially stepped back as CEO as of January 1, 2026—just announced a massive $9.7 billion acquisition of OxyChem.
This is huge. Like, really huge.
Basically, Occidental is selling off its chemicals business to Berkshire to clean up its balance sheet. If you've followed OXY for a while, you know they’ve been carrying a mountain of debt ever since that aggressive Anadarko takeover years ago. By offloading OxyChem, they’re getting $8 billion in after-tax cash. They plan to use $6.5 billion of that to slash their debt below the $15 billion mark.
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For investors, this is a "de-risking" play. Less debt means less interest to pay—roughly $350 million to $400 million in annual savings, actually. It makes the company leaner, but it also means they’re losing the steady, boring cash flow that chemicals provided. They are now, more than ever, an "upstream" company. When oil prices jump, OXY will fly. When they drop, it’s going to hurt.
Why the Occidental Stock Price Today Feels Stuck
If the debt news is so good, why isn't the stock skyrocketing?
The reality is that 2026 is looking like a bit of a slog for the oil industry. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting a drop in crude prices because global production is outstripping demand. It’s simple math: too much oil, not enough buyers.
- WTI Crude is expected to average just $52 this year.
- OXY’s earnings are feeling the squeeze, with analysts projecting an EPS of only $0.34 for the upcoming February report.
- The stock has actually dropped about 17% over the last year, trailing the broader S&P 500 significantly.
Investors are kinda sitting on their hands. They see the debt coming down, which is great, but they also see the "top line" revenue shrinking as oil prices stay low. It’s a tug-of-war.
The Buffett Factor and the "Oxy-fication" of Berkshire
Even with Buffett retired, Berkshire Hathaway still owns a massive 28.2% stake in Occidental. They aren't just investors; they are the floor. Whenever the stock dips too low, there’s a sense that Berkshire might just swallow the whole thing. This "Buffett Put" provides a level of support that other oil companies like Devon or EOG just don't have.
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Interestingly, while some analysts at J.P. Morgan recently downgraded the stock to "Underweight," the mean price target from 31 different analysts still sits at $50.58. That implies about an 18% upside from where we are right now.
The Wildcard: Carbon Capture and AI
You can't talk about OXY in 2026 without talking about STRATOS. This is their flagship Direct Air Capture (DAC) plant in Texas. It’s designed to suck 500,000 metric tons of $CO_2$ out of the sky every year.
It’s scheduled to start "operationalization" (investor-speak for "actually doing something") in mid-2025/early-2026. What’s wild is the link to AI. Occidental is positioning itself as the green solution for the massive power-hungry data centers being built by Big Tech. They already have a deal with Microsoft to sell carbon removal credits.
If STRATOS works and the costs come down, OXY isn't just an oil company anymore. It’s a tech-adjacent carbon management firm. But that’s a big "if." Some executives have already admitted that the DAC model isn't fully "bankable" yet without more government subsidies or a higher price on carbon. It's a gamble, pure and simple.
What You Should Actually Do
So, you're looking at the ticker and wondering if it's a buy.
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If you’re a short-term trader, the occidental stock price today is likely to stay volatile. The upcoming earnings call on February 18, 2026, will be the next major catalyst. Watch for comments on the dividend; there is a lot of chatter that OXY might hike its quarterly payout toward $0.25 or $0.26 per share now that the debt is under control.
For the long-term crowd, the thesis hasn't changed much. You're betting on two things:
- Vicki Hollub’s vision: She is betting the farm on carbon capture.
- The Berkshire connection: You’re essentially co-investing with the smartest money in Omaha.
The immediate next step is to watch the $40 support level. If it breaks that, things could get ugly. If it holds, and the OxyChem deal closes smoothly, that $50 price target starts to look a lot more realistic by the end of the year. Keep an eye on the January 30 put options activity—traders are currently betting heavily that the price stays above $39.00 in the near term.
Check the debt-to-equity ratio after the next earnings report. If that number drops as promised, the "risk" discount on the stock should start to evaporate.